One week before the elections the polls politicians don't want you to see are showing startling results as the campaign draws to a close. These are not the polls of individual races but the ones measuring the sentiment of likely voters. Gallup shows that likely enthusiastic voters leaning Democrat are at 37% while likely voters leaning Republican are at 63%, the highest Republican figure ever recorded in the history of the polls. That means a 26% lead in enthusiasm for those leaning Republican with just one week to go.
More ominous for the Democrats, this is after the President, Vice President and First Lady Michelle Obama have been crisscrossing the nation seeking to generate enthusiasm and raising millions of campaign dollars. Clearly this election has become a referendum on the Obama agenda and the Obama campaign strategy.
The last year there was a Republican landslide was 1994 when the GOP took control of both the House and Senate and the GOP enthusiasm advantage was only 9% compared to 26% this year. With the discontent of Independents over Obama and his Democrats rising consistently, Independents favor the GOP over Democrats by over 14%.
A Gallup poll released Friday found that only 23 percent of Independent voters agree that “most members of Congress deserve reelection.” The similar figure for Republican voters is 21 percent, according to Gallup, while 59 percent of Democrats say most US representatives should be returned to office. The combined results of all three groups means only 33 percent of voters overall think incumbents deserve to win. That’s the lowest such percentage prior to a midterm election that Gallup has found in the past 16 years.
At the same time if Republicans win overwhelmingly they sill have a lot of work to do to convince the public they will do what is best for the nation as just 43% of the people believe either party can lead effectively. The GOP will have two years to prove they can best meet the public needs.