Saturday, May 07, 2016

Kentucky Derby Last Chance - Here are the Expert Picks


Louisville Courier-Journal

2016 Kentucky Derby expert picks

The Courier-Journal collected quick Kentucky Derby 142 picks from our staffers as well as voters in The C-J's weekly top 20 poll that have followed the Triple Crown trail from its start.
With little consensus among handicappers about this year's field, best of luck at the betting window.


Winner: #16 Shagaf
On the board: #15 Outwork, #2 Suddenbreakingnews
Longshot I like: #18 Majesto
Comment: Nobody has impressed me more in the morning than Shagaf, who is well-bred and talented but lightly raced. I’ll excuse his flat Wood Memorial based on the muddy track and some traffic trouble because the physical signs tell me he’s sitting on his best race.

Frank Angst, The Blood-Horse
Winner: #15 Outwork
On the board: #5 Gun Runner, #13 Nyquist
Longshot I like: #4 Mo Tom
Comment: Considering the track conditions, Outwork ran a very impressive race to win the Wood Memorial and I think his early speed will help him in this year’s Derby, which is not deep with early runners.

Gabby Gaudet, Gulfstream Park/Pimlico

Winner: #14 Mohaymen
On the board: #9 Destin, #13 Nyquist, #5 Gun Runner
Longshot I like: #4 Mo Tom
Comment: Mohaymen's Florida Derby was too bad to be true. Maybe it was because he chased a talented/fresh horse five-wide on a off track? There's a reason why he was once the Derby favorite, and I look for a rebound.

Jeff Greer, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #10 Whitmore
On the board: #11 Exaggerator, #13 Nyquist
Longshot I like: #12 Tom's Ready
Comment: Picking Whitmore with the most scientifically-proven method out there: You pet it, you bet it.

Jon Hale, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #11 Exaggerator
On the board: #13 Nyquist, #12 Tom's Ready
Longshot I like: #8 Lani
Comment: I've only picked the Derby winner once, so anyone who takes these picks to heart is making a poor life choice.

Trixie Hammer,

Winner: #3 Creator
On the board: #15 Outwork, #14 Mohaymen
Longshot I like: #17 Mor Spirit
Comment: There are bigger longshots than Mor Spirit, but I'll take the "anteater" for my fun win bet.

Joe Kristufek, Churchill Downs

Winner: #9 Destin
On the board: #13 Nyquist, #14 Mohaymen, #15 Outwork
Longshot I like: #2 Suddenbreakingnews
Comment: With nine committed closers in the field and only a handful of forward types, I truly expect the early Derby tempo to be moderate.

Jonathan Lintner, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #19 Brody's Cause
On the board: #13 Nyquist, #5 Gun Runner
Longshot I like: #20 Danzing Candy
Comment: If the Blue Grass winner pushes the button on the back stretch, he could get there even with an outside post position.

Marty McGee, Daily Racing Form

Winner: #11 Exaggerator
On the board: #3 Creator, #19 Brody's Cause
Longshot I like: #16 Shagaf
Comment: The Brothers Desormeaux have come a long way since they teamed together with Yazoo at Acadiana Downs.

Laffit Pincay, NBC Sports

Winner: #15 Outwork
On the board: #13 Nyquist, #10 Whitmore
Longshot I like: #20 Danzing Candy
Comment: Outwork will avenge his sire Uncle Mo's Derby disappointment.

Mary Rampellini, Daily Racing Form

Winner: #13 Nyquist
On the Board: #11 Exaggerator, #14 Mohaymen
Longshot I Like: #2 Suddenbreakingnews
Comment: R-E-S-P-E-C-T. The champion Nyquist will be getting it from this corner as a four-time Grade 1 winner whose talent, tactical speed and determination has carried him to wins at distances ranging from five furlongs to a mile-and-an-eighth.

Paul Rolfes, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #13 Nyquist
On the board: #14 Mohaymen, #19 Brody's Cause
Longshot I like: #5 Gun Runner
Comment: There are 20 good, potentially great, 3-year-olds in the field, with 19 out to prove Nyquist isn’t another American Pharoah. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s stable might deliver a Derby winner – if not Gun Runner then Creator.

Tim Sullivan, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #13 Nyquist
On the board: #5 Gun Runner, #16 Shagaf
Longshot I like: #12 Tom's Ready
Comment: Hard to pick favorite to win a fourth straight Derby; harder to find a better horse.

Hank Wesch, Del Mar

Winner: #13 Nyquist
On the board: #14 Mohaymen, #2 Suddenbreakingnews
Longshot I like: #4 Mo Tom
Comment: Good break from good post + high cruising speed + heart to fight last quarter = Roses.

Jon White, Santa Anita Park

Winner: #13 Nyquist
On the board: #11 Exaggerator, #8 Lani
Longshot I like: #16 Shagaf
Comment: I'll go with undefeated Nyquist in what shapes up as a fascinating Derby, though I did have more confidence in American Pharoah last year and I would not be surprised if there is an upset this year.

Tim Wilkin, Albany Times-Union

Winner: #14 Mohaymen
On the board: #17 Mor Spirit, #19 Brody’s Cause
Longshot I like: #15 Outwork
Comment: Mohaymen reclaims top spot after Florida Derby flop, and at a price, too.

Alicia Wincze Hughes, Lexington Herald-Leader

Winner: #13 Nyquist
On the board: #9 Destin, #19 Brody's Cause
Longshot I like: #18 Majesto
Comment: Nyquist has already beaten most of the major contenders and he is versatile enough to make his own luck regardless of trip and/or pace scenario.


No comments: