Kentucky Derby Last Chance - Here are the Expert Picks

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Louisville Courier-Journal

2016 Kentucky Derby expert picks

Jonathan Lintner, The Courier-Journal2:15 p.m. EDT May 6, 2016

The Courier-Journal collected quick Kentucky Derby 142 picks from our staffers as well as voters in The C-J's weekly top 20 poll that have followed the Triple Crown trail from its start.

With little consensus among handicappers about this year's field, best of luck at the betting window.

Dan Wolken, USA TODAY SPORTS

Winner: #16 Shagaf

On the board: #15 Outwork, #2 Suddenbreakingnews

Longshot I like: #18 Majesto

Comment: Nobody has impressed me more in the morning than Shagaf, who is well-bred and talented but lightly raced. I’ll excuse his flat Wood Memorial based on the muddy track and some traffic trouble because the physical signs tell me he’s sitting on his best race.

Frank Angst, The Blood-Horse

Winner: #15 Outwork

On the board: #5 Gun Runner, #13 Nyquist

Longshot I like: #4 Mo Tom

Comment: Considering the track conditions, Outwork ran a very impressive race to win the Wood Memorial and I think his early speed will help him in this year’s Derby, which is not deep with early runners.

Gabby Gaudet, Gulfstream Park/Pimlico

Winner: #14 Mohaymen

On the board: #9 Destin, #13 Nyquist, #5 Gun Runner

Longshot I like: #4 Mo Tom

Comment: Mohaymen's Florida Derby was too bad to be true. Maybe it was because he chased a talented/fresh horse five-wide on a off track? There's a reason why he was once the Derby favorite, and I look for a rebound.

Jeff Greer, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #10 Whitmore

On the board: #11 Exaggerator, #13 Nyquist

Longshot I like: #12 Tom's Ready

Comment: Picking Whitmore with the most scientifically-proven method out there: You pet it, you bet it.

Jon Hale, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #11 Exaggerator

On the board: #13 Nyquist, #12 Tom's Ready

Longshot I like: #8 Lani

Comment: I've only picked the Derby winner once, so anyone who takes these picks to heart is making a poor life choice.

Trixie Hammer, LadyAndTheTrack.com

Winner: #3 Creator

On the board: #15 Outwork, #14 Mohaymen

Longshot I like: #17 Mor Spirit

Comment: There are bigger longshots than Mor Spirit, but I'll take the "anteater" for my fun win bet.

Joe Kristufek, Churchill Downs

Winner: #9 Destin

On the board: #13 Nyquist, #14 Mohaymen, #15 Outwork

Longshot I like: #2 Suddenbreakingnews

Comment: With nine committed closers in the field and only a handful of forward types, I truly expect the early Derby tempo to be moderate.

Jonathan Lintner, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #19 Brody's Cause

On the board: #13 Nyquist, #5 Gun Runner

Longshot I like: #20 Danzing Candy

Comment: If the Blue Grass winner pushes the button on the back stretch, he could get there even with an outside post position.

Marty McGee, Daily Racing Form

Winner: #11 Exaggerator

On the board: #3 Creator, #19 Brody's Cause

Longshot I like: #16 Shagaf

Comment: The Brothers Desormeaux have come a long way since they teamed together with Yazoo at Acadiana Downs.

Laffit Pincay, NBC Sports

Winner: #15 Outwork

On the board: #13 Nyquist, #10 Whitmore

Longshot I like: #20 Danzing Candy

Comment: Outwork will avenge his sire Uncle Mo's Derby disappointment.

Mary Rampellini, Daily Racing Form

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the Board: #11 Exaggerator, #14 Mohaymen

Longshot I Like: #2 Suddenbreakingnews

Comment: R-E-S-P-E-C-T. The champion Nyquist will be getting it from this corner as a four-time Grade 1 winner whose talent, tactical speed and determination has carried him to wins at distances ranging from five furlongs to a mile-and-an-eighth.

Paul Rolfes, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #14 Mohaymen, #19 Brody's Cause

Longshot I like: #5 Gun Runner

Comment: There are 20 good, potentially great, 3-year-olds in the field, with 19 out to prove Nyquist isn’t another American Pharoah. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s stable might deliver a Derby winner – if not Gun Runner then Creator.

Tim Sullivan, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #5 Gun Runner, #16 Shagaf

Longshot I like: #12 Tom's Ready

Comment: Hard to pick favorite to win a fourth straight Derby; harder to find a better horse.

Hank Wesch, Del Mar

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #14 Mohaymen, #2 Suddenbreakingnews

Longshot I like: #4 Mo Tom

Comment: Good break from good post + high cruising speed + heart to fight last quarter = Roses.

Jon White, Santa Anita Park

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #11 Exaggerator, #8 Lani

Longshot I like: #16 Shagaf

Comment: I'll go with undefeated Nyquist in what shapes up as a fascinating Derby, though I did have more confidence in American Pharoah last year and I would not be surprised if there is an upset this year.

Tim Wilkin, Albany Times-Union

Winner: #14 Mohaymen

On the board: #17 Mor Spirit, #19 Brody’s Cause

Longshot I like: #15 Outwork

Comment: Mohaymen reclaims top spot after Florida Derby flop, and at a price, too.

Alicia Wincze Hughes, Lexington Herald-Leader

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #9 Destin, #19 Brody's Cause

Longshot I like: #18 Majesto

Comment: Nyquist has already beaten most of the major contenders and he is versatile enough to make his own luck regardless of trip and/or pace scenario.

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Kentucky Derby Five Favorites in Run for Roses 2016

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ABC News 

Derby 2016: 5 Horses to Watch in 142nd Kentucky Derby

By beth harris, ap racing writer

Apr 30, 2016, 1:02 PM ET

The starting gate will once again be full with 20 horses for the 142nd Kentucky Derby.

Even though the majority of horses have little chance of winning and over the half the field is typically eliminated in the opening quarter-mile, owners and trainers cannot resist the prestige of having a horse in America's greatest race.

Most of the 3-year-olds will be running 1¼ miles for the first time on May 7, leaving it up for grabs to see which handles the distance, track surface and traffic-choked conditions the best.

Trainer Doug O'Neill has the likely wagering favorite in undefeated Nyquist.

Three trainers are expected to have two horses each in the race. Steve Asmussen will saddle Gun Runner and Creator, Todd Pletcher has Wood Memorial winner Outwork and Tampa Bay Derby winner Destin, and Chad Brown has Shagaf and Blue Grass runner-up My Man Sam.

Here are five horses to watch:

EXAGGERATOR

A son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. He's trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, the Hall of Fame jockey who is Keith's younger brother. The colt has three wins in eight career starts and earnings of $1 million. He has lost to Nyquist three times, including last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Exaggerator is a versatile sort who can press the pace or stalk the leaders. He is coming off an impressive 6¼-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby on a sloppy track.

GUN RUNNER

The colt topped the Derby leaderboard with 151 points earned in prep races. He has four wins in five career starts, including the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star this winter. Trainer Steve Asmussen, recently elected to racing's Hall of Fame, is seeking his first Derby victory. He will also saddle Creator. Gun Runner has the second-highest earnings of $1.6 million among the horses expected to make the field.

MOHAYMEN

The colt had his five-race winning streak snapped in the Florida Derby, when he finished fourth behind Nyquist as the 4-5 favorite. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin tosses out the clunker, saying Mohaymen has had "only two bad minutes in his entire life." The colt is one of two (Shagaf is the other) in the race owned by Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the 70-year-old deputy ruler of Dubai. The Maktoum family is 0 for 8 at the Derby. Mohaymen's blood lines include Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew.

MOR SPIRIT

Any Derby horse trained by Bob Baffert is worth consideration. The Hall of Fame trainer has four Derby victories, including last year when American Pharoah began his journey to Triple Crown glory in this race. Another Hall of Famer, Gary Stevens, will ride the Pennsylvania-bred colt. Stevens has three Derby wins, the last coming in 1997 aboard Silver Charm, who was trained by Baffert. Mor Spirit has never been worse than second in seven career starts.

NYQUIST

The colt brings a 7-0 record into Churchill Downs, bettering the marks of Seattle Slew in 1977 and Smarty Jones in 2004 when they were 6-0 and won the race. He comes in off a five-week layoff, having last won the Florida Derby. The colt has won from just about everywhere: on the rail, from the far outside, leading all the way or coming from off the pace. Nyquist is a son of Uncle Mo, who also went undefeated in his 2-year-old season. Uncle Mo was the early favorite for the 2011 Kentucky Derby, but he was scratched the day before because of illness and was later diagnosed with a rare liver disease. The colt is named for Detroit Red Wings player Gustav Nyquist; owner Paul Reddam is a big fan of the hockey team. Reddam, trainer Doug O'Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez were the same team behind I'll Have Another, who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2012 before being scratched on the eve of the Belmont Stakes with a career-ending leg injury. Nyquist is the richest horse in the Derby field, having earned $3.2 million. He was purchased for $400,000.

136th Kentucky Derby Preview - The Colt Eskendereya

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Exciting colt Eskendereya (3c Giant’s Causeway x Aldebran Light, by Seattle Slew) took another step on the trail to the Kentucky Derby with a scintillating win in the Group One Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on the weekend.

A dominant winner of the Group Two Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 20, the Todd Pletcher trained colt stepped it up another notch in the Wood Memorial, bolting away down the stretch to win the 1 1/8 mile contest by nine and three-quarter lengths.



"The horse is amazing,'' said trainer Todd Pletcher, who appears to have an outstanding prospect to secure his first Derby win.

"The further he goes the stronger he gets. The horse has natural stamina. It would be big to win the Derby. We’ll try to make that happen.”

Eskendereya settled off the pace for Johhny Velaazquez and chimed in with a big run from the top of the straight, coasting to the line as he pleased.



"He allowed me to get him back off the slow pace, and once I did that I got into the clear on the backstretch and he settled really, really well until (Awesome Act) came to him on the outside on the backstretch," Velazquez said.

"I gave him his head a little bit then, and he settled. Once we got to three-eighths pole he got on the bridle pretty strong, and when I gave him his head he just went up and up and up from the horses. He was just galloping. It was a good feeling.”



Eskendereya is now considered the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby, his rate of improvement and ability to adapt to varying race conditions stamping him a rising star.

“He’s not at the mercy of anyone’s pace. He sets his own pace. We just wanted him in his rhythm,” said Pletcher.

“I said to (owner Ahmed) Zayat (last summer at Saratoga), this horse literally improves every week. A lot of times they improve to a certain point and then level off. He keeps doing it."



A $250,000 Keeneland purchase for the Zayat Stables, Eskendereya was thought good enough to run in the Group One Breeders Cup Juvenile last year, but disappointed connections with a ninth place finish.

He has since bounced back in top form this year, his overall record now four wins and a second from six starts with prizemoney of $725,700.

Eskendereya is a half-brother to Group One Newmarket Middle Park Stakes winner Balmont being from the Seattle Slew mare Aldebaran Light.

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