The Iowa Caucus - Predictions from an Iowa Hayseed - Hillary or Bernie, Cruz or Trump?

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Today is the beginning of the American Presidential campaign to replace Barack Obama as Iowans caucus to pick their choices for Democrat and Republican candidates in one of the most unusual methods used in the USA.

The "caucus" Iowa style is like no other form of primary in that it is the first test of the strength of candidates and first test of their ability to appeal to people, not the media, not the contributors, but the people.

The two parties differ somewhat in how to run the caucus, with the Democrats disqualifying anyone with less than 15% of the vote, which means a redistribution of the votes for O'Malley to the surviving candidates Clinton and Sanders.

What the media failed to note until today, is that if Bernie and Hillary tie as the polls seem to reflect, and Clinton is the establishment candidate while Sanders is the outsider, it seems logical that the O'Malley votes are anti-Clinton and therefore will go to Sanders.

If there is a high voter turnout, and there most certainly will be, Sanders and Trump stand to benefit the most.  If the anti-establishment mood of the nation is real, and all evidence points to that fact, again Sanders and Trump benefit.

On the Republican side, there are a dozen good candidates, including two who won the Iowa primary previously.  Then there is the only true outsider championing the "silent majority" of Americans Trump, who has never run for public office.

Challenging Trump is Cruz, claiming to be an outsider but after winning a Senate seat in 2012 and personally managing the shut down of the US government a couple of years ago, he hardly qualifies as an outsider.  He also failed to mention he received one million dollars in last minute loans from Goldman Sachs and Citibank in order to win a runoff for the Senate seat.

In my mind, the anti-establishment mood of the nation is a direct result of control of our government by special interests, specifically the financial and banking powerhouses and pharmaceutical drug makers, through the failure to have adequate campaign financial limits.

In this election year, the most special of special interests finance and support two candidates.  First is Hillary Clinton, whose family received millions and millions of dollars from Goldman Sachs dating back to Bill Clinton's impeachment, while Hillary has received millions from the financial giants and corrupt hedge funds.

The second is Ted Cruz, who not only violated federal campaign laws by failing to report the Goldman loans, he also failed to mention in his bio that his wife is a twelve year employee and director of Goldman Sachs.

The news media chooses to make qualified predictions of what will happen today, sort of hedging their bets since they have been wrong about every aspect of the election this year.  If the turnout is very high, they say, there is a chance Sanders and Trump will win, but the odds seem to be a lower turnout and wins by Clinton and Cruz because both spent more money and have the best organization in Iowa.

I say nonsense a qualified prediction is like a wimp whose idea of taking a chance is going out on a limb that is two feet off the ground.  Perhaps we should throw the media into the establishment category as they have done as much as the big bankers and beholden politicians to undermine our country.

Did I mention Barack Obama is the third politician who represents the best office holder money can buy because of his own decade long relationship to Goldman Sachs?

At any rate, the Coltons Point Times is not afraid to make real predictions on the Iowa race and here they are.

The Winners

The American people who know our government, financial system, our political parties, and campaign financing system are corrupt to the bone.

Bernie Sanders who will send shock waves throughout the Democrat establishment machine by beating heavily favored Hillary Clinton with his multitudes of young, energetic, and untested volunteers.  At the same time, he will help strike a mortal wound to the equally corrupt political party machines that have controlled our elections.

Donald Trump who is the other side of the double-bladed sword that will lead to the destruction of the special interest control of America, and who, like Bernie, comes to the party with no strings attached.  Like Sanders, Trump is bringing millions of Americans back into the political process in order to slay the mighty machine that has bled America dry.

America has seen nothing like this avalanche of support for outsiders since Andrew Jackson became our seventh president in 1829 when he ran against the corrupt financial establishment trying to take control of the young America.

"It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their own selfish purposes."

                                                                                    Andrew Jackson

Jackson served two terms, founded the Democrat party, and closed down our national bank, the Second Bank of the United States.

Rand Paul considered inconsequential by the media and Republican Party but who can be invaluable in shaping a future America free of special interests.  I sense he will far exceed expectations.

The Losers

Hillary Clinton who finds she is no longer heir-apparent to the presidency and must stand accountable for all her bizarre acts in government.

Ted Cruz who discovers a conservative with no personality is largely boring and cannot be trusted.

Goldman Sachs who thought they had both political parties compromised but might just be wrong.  Even if she loses in Iowa, Hillary still is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democrat nomination since Bernie is not even a real Democrat and he is a socialist.

Barack Obama who is counting on Hillary to protect his presidential legacy even though trusting the Clintons to protect anyone other than a Clinton is not a good sign for our president.

Finally, Harvard and Yale could easily be losers as the two Ivy League schools have controlled the American presidency for the past 28 years.  There are 2,618 accredited colleges and universities in America, give someone else a chance.

Hillary (Yale) or Cruz (Harvard) is the standard-bearer expected to maintain the stranglehold on the presidency that Obama (Harvard), Bush, Jr. (Yale and Harvard), Clinton (Yale), and Bush, Sr. (Yale) have preserved through four straight presidencies.

  

Trump crowds

As for the caucus in general, I expect the Republican turnout to set a new record and the Democrats to be very close, if not break, the Obama record in 2008.

Bernie crowds

In addition, since Trump and Bernie will both win the New Hampshire primary in another week, the shock waves will continue to reverberate through the political parties and media as the campaign unfolds.

A side note, the Democrat winning the Iowa caucus won the presidency in 2008 but the Republican winning the caucus has not won the presidency in 20 years.

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Obamaville February 28 - No One is Running to be America's President

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What happened to patriotism and serving all the people all the time?

This is a really strange presidential election year as the president, presidential candidates, political parties and media remind us ad infinitum how the other guy can't win, is stupid, has no broad based support, no plan and no guts.

There was a time in America when a person running for president promised to do what was right for America, not just their own party and agenda.  Presidents Eisenhower, John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan were the last of the Real American presidents.

Since then it has been all about special interests, special groups, special issues, and lots of money from more special interests representing special issues.  If you think the media is not under the same influence of special interests as the politicians, then look who is advertising on that TV station, running ads in the newspapers and magazines, or saturating the Internet with propaganda through more advertising.

Obama has the unions, Wall Street, environmentalists, teachers unions, Nobel Peace Prize Committee, Harvard and health care industries to protect.

Romney the financial institutions, the rich, oil companies and small business.

Santorum the evangelical Christians, conservatives who don't check his voting record, college drop outs, and the Catholics loyal to the Italian Vatican.

Ron Paul represents those who believe the best government is no government and to hell with all those foreigners.

Newt Gingrich, well who does he represent?  We know his publisher?  The intellectually constipated?  Conservatives right of Attila the Hun?  People who wear suspenders and belts? Those who don't get enough of Obama's ethereal vision of America?

Okay, then there are the political parties.  The Democratic party hates everything said by Republicans and the GOP feels pretty much the same about the Democrats.

The conservative media hate the socialist, communist, left leaning liberals while the liberal media hate the red neck, gun toting, war mongering fat cats who make all the money.

Unions hate whoever their labor bosses tell them to hate, mostly those blood sucking rich, while the rich hate the unions unless that union works for them.

Now that we know the opposing sides, the passion of the opposing sides, the special interests of the opposing sides and the single mindedness of the opposing sides, where does that leave John Q. Public, the six pack majority everyone claims to be helping?

Well, if you are one of us, then you are a red blooded American who cleans up everyone else's mess and just wants to be left alone.  In short, you are the forgotten American, the silent majority, the one who believes charity comes first and the one who can whip the ass of all those highfalutin people claiming to know what you need.

You know why the politicians, the president, congress and even the media get such low marks in the favorable polls?  Because the real Americans aren't paying any attention to them.  The silent majority knows they are corrupted with power, awash in money, rich with ego and speak out of both sides of their mouths pretty much all the time.

Come November the Real Americans, not the media or politicians, will decide who will do the least damage running our country for four more years, elect them, then go about their business largely ignoring them since Real Americans know better that to believe what they hear from the politicians or media and have much better things to be concerned about.

Real Americans use the gifts God gave them to help each other out, not the mandates from Washington.

Common sense is still practiced in Real America.  Do you think it can be found in the halls of congress?

If Real Americans need something they make it, fix it, create it, grow it and then they share it.

They understand, as Mark Twain said, that everyone is entitled to their silly opinions and Real Americans respect others' opinions, not hate them.

So far neither the President nor Republican candidates, nor the congress or political parties seem to care what the Real Americans think.  So there is no John Kennedy or Ronald Reagan to support.

But you know what, that's okay because the fools are those who think they know what is best for everyone else.  They are not the silent, six pack majority called the Real Americans who will never surrender their God given inalienable rights and freedom to those confounded fools in Washington.

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Obamaville - February 1 - Florida Primary Recap

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GOP Candidates Take Aim at Obama Economy

The people spoke and once again the pundits are wrong.  Just last week The New York Times said Newt Gingrich had a 73.3% chance of winning the Florida primary.  He got buried by 14% by the Romney organization.  But the real story which should be of concern to Obama's Chicago campaign team was the breakdown of the vote.

Romney strengthened his position in nearly every important demographic including women, the Tea Party, Catholics, conservatives, Latinos and others who make up the core of the Independent vote in America.  Slowly but surely, as if a slumbering elephant coming back to life, the message of Mitt Romney is starting to resonate with the voters.

America's future is about jobs and strengthening the economy.  It is not about excuses.  It is about promises broken and policies gone wrong.  It is about a regulatory assault on small business and the American economic engine.  It is about a president who chooses to ignore the reality of capitalism and who pins his hopes on three years of failed social engineering.

It is about a track record of enthusiastic promises, followed by dismal results.  In a word, it is about the difference when the president of the United States fails to provide leadership, even when he controlled the congress.  The president blames Republicans for all his many woes yet he did nothing to change the massive problems he so successfully articulated when he controlled the House and the Senate for two years with a solid Democratic majority.

A $16 trillion national debt.  A trillion dollar budget deficit every year he has been preisdent.  No strengthening of Social Security or Medicare.  An increase in unemployment.  A recovery that has failed to restore 5 million jobs lost in the recession.  Stimulus and bailouts that failed to generate economic growth. A failuire to even address the need for energy independence.  A health care reform program, Obamacare, that has seen health care costs and health insurance premiums continue to soar.  The collapse of the housing market and failure to address the foreclosure nightmare.

For the first time in post election speeches the three major candidates focused on the president and not each other.  Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul each gave passionate and quite different attacks on the president's performance since being elected and laid out a wealth of ideas on how the president is vulnerable.

Romney won the primary handily and there is evidence the GOP is coming together in their mission to stop Obama from further damaging the America the people want to see restored.  No matter how much trivia the media and White House throw at Romney and the other candidates, no matter how negative the campaign ads may get, all Republicans and about 50% of Independents are becoming united in the determination to throw out the politicians including President Obama.

The worst fear of the president is that he might have to run on his record as president.  Because when it comes to domestic issues there is no record.  You cannot defend doing nothing and contributing to the malaise in our nation's capitol.

Stay tuned for the next efforts of the media and Obama administration to try and divert attention from the record.  The Congressional Budget Office (non-partisan) and many others keep warning us that we are far from out of the economic danger and we are doing nothing to address the long term problems facing our nation.

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Obamaville - January 26 - The Last Florida GOP Debate Recap

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Thursday President Obama took off on a five state junket stretching from coast to coast.  It was his government financed non-campaign trip to critical campaign swing states in an effort to sell his non-campaign State of the Union message where he laid out his election campaign platform.  Duh???

Anyway, he's out of town so the Republicans held their 18th debate of this early primary season.  Don't forget, there are still 46 more states to decide.  I, for one, think we have reached the point of intellectual saturation and constipation from this many debates.  Doesn't the media have anything else to do?  Why aren't they covering some hard news instead of trying to manufacture political news?

Maybe half a dozen would have been tolerable by this point, but one and a half dozen seems like gross over-kill.  They may serve a psychological purpose in giving that good old liberal lame street media a chance to dig deeper and deeper in trying to find weaknesses in the GOP field, and they burn up GOP financial resources thus saving Obama campaign money.

But Obama is going to have a billion campaign dollars to spend!  That is like a federal stimulus program.  Only two presidential campaigns in history have cost more than $270 million and they were both his, which just proves the point we are getting the best politician money can buy.  He will spend $1.8 billion in two elections to win a job that only pays $400,000 a year, or $3.2 million over 8 years.

As for the Republican debate that took place.

There were two winners in  the last Republican debate before the Florida primary Thursday night.  First was Marco Rubio, the rising Republican star Senator from Florida as both front runners, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, said they are considering him a leading candidate for a higher position than cabinet if they win the nomination.

Now the only job higher than the president's cabinet is vice president, so there is a very good chance the Republicans will be the first political party in American history to nominate a Hispanic for vice president.  A background story I did on Marco Rubio a couple of years ago follows this story.

The second winner was Romney who clearly won the debate even though Gingrich and Santorum gave him plenty of jabs.  He countered their attacks, stood his ground, and firmly and decisively controlled the outcome.

Of course he has a few more answers and positions he needs to fine tune before he takes on Obama in September but he made a giant step forward in fulfilling the uncomfortable role of aggressor in the debate.

More important, he began drawing sharp contrasts with Obama on the issues Obama cannot defend like his handling of the economy, jobs, health care, housing and energy.  After three years in office the president has little to show and a lot to promise.

Ron Paul was much sharper this debate although the moderators continue to ignore him much of the time, especially when follow up comments are given.  Still, his jokes kept thing from getting too intense and when Wolf Blitzer, the CNN moderator, pressed him about the problem if he was elected that he would be the oldest president in history, Paul shot back, be careful with your question, we passed an age discrimination law in America and you are close to it, to the laughter of the crowd.

When asked about his medical condition he replied he was healthy enough to challenge anyone on stage to a 25 mile bike ride across the Texas desert.  There was much more laughter.

Rick Santorum gave his best and most passionate but his responses were too complicated for viewers, at least me, to understand while others flat out disagreed with the typical person watching the debate.  Though it was his best effort, one could sense that his hopes for winning this time are rapidly fading and he is turning his attention to laying the groundwork for a 2016 campaign.

Ron Paul has clearly won the admiration and respect of Romney and Gingrich.  As Paul continues to attract youth and Independents, he becomes a potential crucial ally to the GOP winner because Paul can keep votes away from Obama.

Since Ron Paul really has no illusion about winning the presidency and is committed to building popular support for his agenda for America, he will be a winner.  People are hearing and believing in his message of eliminating debts, deficits, wars and foreign aid.  His individual freedom and fear of a massive central government bureaucracy, which is pretty much what we've got, are resonating with about 20% of the voters across both party lines and with Independent.

Newt Gingrich seemed almost asleep on stage.  Gone were the rapier slashes and sharp barbs.  Last debate NBC silenced the crowd and Gingrich just doesn't make it with his one liners when there is no response from the crowd.  There were no excuses in this last debate, CNN allowed the crowd to respond.  It was far more entertaining, interesting and informative than the clinical and sterile exercise NBC gave us last week.

Yet the master debater and historian seemed stunned by Romney's attacks and counter attacks and never got into a grove with the audience.  If he was slipping in the polls before the debate he stumbled in this chance to recover.

All four candidates managed to get in some good discussion about President Obama and his failed policies and to identify a far different approach to government they supported.

Mitt Romney was far more at ease in this debate than previous ones and this time the attacks inspired him as his responses and counter attacks were pretty much effective.  In the end he was the clear winner no manner what those radical socialist liberal and radical right wing conservative commentators on network and cable news say.

Now it is a long ways to the Republican National Convention in August and to the 1,144 delegates the winner needs at the convention so a lot could happen.  The news media also seems to forget that by the end of the Florida primary next Tuesday we will have only heard from 4 out of 50 states.

The following is a reprint of my earlier story introducing Marco Rubio to my readers.  You should learn about this young man and his family because he may play a big role in the future of the nation.

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Rising GOP Stars - Marco Rubio, Cuban American Tea Party Patriot

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Highly regarded for his principled, energetic and idea-driven leadership, Marco Rubio won a three way battle for U.S. Senate fighting off numerous trips by Obama and leading Democrats and efforts to split the GOP vote in 2010. His humble and honest acceptance speech after the victory was one of the highlights of all speeches by candidates. Take a moment to listen to this 39 year old rising star.

In 1971, Marco was born in Miami to Cuban-born parents who came to America following Fidel Castro’s takeover. When he was eight years old, Rubio and his family moved to Las Vegas, Nevada where his father worked as a bartender at the Sams Town Hotel and his mother as a housekeeper at the Imperial Palace Hotel. In 1985, the family returned to Miami where his father continued working as a bartender at the Mayfair House Hotel until 1997. Thereafter he worked as a school crossing guard until his retirement in 2005. His mother worked as a Kmart stock clerk until she retired in 1995.

Rubio attended South Miami Senior High School, graduating in 1989. He attended Tarkio College in Missouri for one year on a football scholarship before transferring to Santa Fe Community College and then graduating in 1993 with a bachelor of science from the University of Florida. He continued his studies at the University of Miami where he earned his juris doctor, cum laude, in 1996.

From 2000-2008, Rubio served in the Florida House of Representatives. During this period, he served as Majority Whip, Majority Leader and Speaker of the House, effectively promoting an agenda of lower taxes, better schools, a leaner and more efficient government and free market empowerment. Rubio also helped spearhead Florida’s congressional and legislative redistricting effort. He chaired the House Select Committee on Property Rights, which crafted national model legislation to protect private property rights following the U.S. Supreme Court’s Kelo v. City of New London decision that opened the door for eminent domain abuse.

During the two years prior to assuming the speakership, Rubio traveled around the state hosting “Idearaisers” to solicit Floridians’ input on ways to strengthen Florida. The 100 best ideas were compiled into a book entitled “100 Innovative Ideas for Florida’s Future” which served as the basis for his term. All 100 ideas were passed by the Florida House. Fifty-seven of these ideas ultimately became law, including measures to crack down on gangs and sexual predators, promote energy efficient buildings, appliances and vehicles, and help small businesses obtain affordable health coverage. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich hailed the effort as “a work of genius.”

In addition to these ideas, Rubio championed a major overhaul of the Florida tax system that would have eliminated all property taxes on primary residences in favor of a flat consumption tax. The effort garnered national attention, with Grover Norquist, president of the fiscally conservative Americans for Tax Reform, praising Rubio as “the most pro-taxpayer legislative leader in the country.”

During his legislative career, Rubio also promoted efforts to develop a world-class public school curriculum, increase performance-based accountability, enhance school choice and target the socio-economic factors affecting chronic academic underperformance. He is also widely credited for blocking the expansion of gambling in Florida and shepherding the passage of historic energy legislation based on market incentives rather than government-imposed mandates.

Since the end of his tenure as Speaker, Rubio has resumed his law practice as a sole practitioner. He has also served as a visiting professor at Florida International University’s Metropolitan Center, worked as Florida Chairman of GOPAC and as a political analyst for Univision during the 2008 election cycle.

He has also continued his community and civic involvement, serving on the boards of the Latin Builders Association and Alafit International, a non-profit organization dedicated to promoting global literacy. He also remains engaged in the West Miami community where he served as a city commissioner prior to being elected to the state house.

Rubio and his wife, Jeanette Dousdebes Rubio, have been married since 1998. They are the parents of four children: Amanda, Daniella, Anthony, and Dominic. They currently live in the working class city of West Miami, just four blocks from the home his parents moved the family to in 1985.
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