Friday, April 30, 2010

Kentucky Demolition Derby Set - Favorites Bookend the Field at Post


It has been quite a build up to the Derby and finally this weekend it will push politics off the minds of America, at least for the fastest two minutes in sports. Millions will be glued to the television as yet another group of 3 year olds will try and lay claim to being the best horse in the world and to have a chance to become the first triple crown winner in 32 years.

It was in 1978 that Affirmed beat out Alydar by 1 1/2 lengths, a neck and a nose in the three races, the closest triple crown in history and only time the same horses finished 1-2 in all three races. That same decade Seattle Slew won in 1977 and the legendary Secretariat in 1973. There have only been 11 triple crown winners in 110 years. 21 times a horse won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness only to lose the Belmont.

This year the two early favorites drew the outside post positions with Lookin at Lucky #1 and Sidney's Candy #20, a most unusual draw and difficult locations to win the race as the Derby has more horses than any other graded stakes race with 20 starters. It is why only 2 favorites the last 10 years have won.

Current Favorites

Based on the odds the current favorites are 1. Lookin at Lucky, 2. Super Saver, 3. Devil May Care and Ice Box, 4. Awesome Act, 5. Sidney's Candy and Stately Victory, and 6. Dean's Kitten and Paddy O'Prado. One horse, Awesome Act is British. When horses are rated for running in the mud, and none has much experience, Awesome Act is favored followed by Ice Box, Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky.

One filly will be challenging the big boys this year, Devil May Care, in an attempt to become the fourth filly in 136 years to win with the last being 22 years ago.

Weather - the great equalizer

Flooding rain, violent thunderstorms and a tornado outbreak are among the concerns meteorologists have this weekend for the Ohio and lower Mississippi valleys, including Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby Saturday.


This could potentially be the wettest Kentucky Derby ever. According to the National Weather Service, the wettest Derby was in 1918, when 2.31 inches of rain fell. The track has been muddy all week from the 1 to 2 inches of rain that fell last weekend. meteorologists are concerned that a repeating thunderstorm pattern from Friday night through Saturday evening could yield 3 to 6 inches of rain, flooded grounds, and the track at Churchill Downs being more like a swamp. While the Derby has never been postponed, drenching, saturating rain is not the only concern for thoroughbred horse racing fans, officials, jockeys, and owners.


Clapping, booming thunder could have some of the horses on edge. Throughout Saturday, thunderstorms over the Ohio Valley will also bring the risk of lightning strikes. Louisville, Ky. is in the heart of the Ohio Valley, and the region lies in the middle of's area of concern for violent weather this weekend. A crowd in the neighborhood of 150,000 is typically in attendance at U.S. horse racing's most famous event.

Severe Weather

Thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds, hail and even a tornado could affect the Louisville area Friday night into Sunday. The first round of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys during the first part of the weekend. However, the forward progress of the storms will slow and then stall nearby Saturday, opening the door for multiple episodes of violent thunderstorms. Thunderstorms produced large hail and spun off tornadoes over the central Plains Thursday night. The same concerns exist, along with an increasing flooding threat, from Wisconsin to Texas this evening.

Mudder's Day

The most likely situation for the Derby on Saturday appears to be that of a frog strangler with rain being the great equalizer, or in the case of the atmosphere, the stabilizer. Clouds and cooling rain would prevent the strong updrafts and downdrafts necessary for rotating thunderstorms and tornadoes. However, if the sun were to burst through, much to the delight of spectators, it could yield one of those more violent thunderstorms around the time of the race.

Current Odds

Here is the final line up for the Derby. Odds will change right up to the race but the most current odds are as follows. Note the Morning Line are the first odds posted by handicappers and the difference between the Morning Line and Current odds show you where the money is being bet.

Post -- Name -- Morning Line / Current Odds
1 Lookin at Lucky 3-1 / 5-1
2 Ice Box 10-1 / 11-1
3 Noble's Promise 12-1 / 24-1
4 Super Saver 15-1 / 8-1
5 Line of David 30-1 / 20-1
6 Stately Victor 30-1 / 13-1
7 American Lion 30-1 / 25-1
8 Dean's Kitten 50-1 / 14-1
9 Make Music for Me 50-1 / 28-1
10 Paddy O'Prado 20-1 / 14-1
11 Devil May Care 10-1 / 11-1
12 Conveyance 12-1 / 18-1
13 Jackson Bend 15-1 / 26-1
14 Mission Impazible 20-1 / 26-1
15 Discreetly Mine 30-1 / 38-1
16 Awesome Act 10-1 / 12-1
17 Dublin 12-1 / 25-1
18 Backtalk 50-1 / 23-1
19 Homeboykris 50-1 / 29-1
20 Sidney's Candy 5-1 / 13-1

Betting the Derby

If you bet on a horse race few people know what the odds pay. There is always a slight adjustment for the size of the betting pools but generally these are the approximate payoffs. Since long shots have a great chance in the race I thought you might enjoy seeing this chart.

Pay-offs for $2 win bets:

1-5 = 2.40
2-5 = 2.80
1-2 = 3.00
3-5 = 3.20
4-5 = 3.60
1-1 = 4.00
6-5 = 4.40
7-5 = 4.80
3-2 = 5.00
8-5 = 5.20
9-5 = 5.60
2-1 = 6.00
5-2 = 7.00
3-1 = 8.00
7-2 = 9.00
4-1 = 10.00
9-2 = 11.00
5-1 = 12.00
6-1 = 14.00
7-1 = 16.00
8-1 = 18.00
9-1 = 20.00
10-1 = 22.00
15-1 = 32.00
20-1 = 42.00
30-1 = 62.00
50-1 = 102.00


1 comment:

Phyllis, Las Vegas said...

why oh why didn't I put some $$$ down on "my" horse (Paddy....)???
Came in third!!!