American Elections 7 - Tips for International Followers - Why the media and political parties have it all wrong - they forgot about Independents

Sometimes the most obvious is the most difficult to see and when it comes to the American media the most obvious and most logical is most often overlooked.  Ever since Obama first ran for office there has been a peculiar Main Street media fascination with the Tea Party movement and when it comes to the liberal media, it became an obsession.

For some odd reason the Lame Street media has been afraid, fearful, and terrorized by the thought that the Tea Party and its seemingly radical right wing supporters represents a grave threat to the American political process.

If the media wants to condemn a conservative commentator they label them "Tea Party" whether they have any affiliation with the Tea Party or not.  It is the liberal way to stigmatize the on air personalities that cause so much havoc in their lives.

Yet most conservative commentators have never joined the Tea Party and view it as an element of the Republican party, not a separate institution.  So the Democrats have tried to diminish any threat from the Tea Party by talking about the splintering effect the Tea Party has on the Republicans.

I suspect they just don't get it.

The only threat to the two party system in America is their arrogance in thinking there really is just two parties in the country and their failure to see we are rapidly approaching the point of no return when more American are alienated by both political parties and their partisan nonsense when in truth there is little difference between them.

Every election we get closer to the point when there are going to be more Independents than BOTH Democrats and Republicans.  When over 50% of the public believes neither party serves the public but both parties have become their own Special Interests.

With the continuing decline in public confidence in our political parties, politicians and media and with the continued ignorance or deliberate effort by the media to disregard the growing number of Americans rejecting both political parties that day we cross the 50% threshold is rapidly approaching and will most certainly be here by 2016 or 2020.

The following is a Gallup Poll which most media failed to report on the continuing surge in the number of Independents in America.  They are the real danger to the two party system and the real hope for healing our Nation.

January 8, 2014 (first published)

Record-High 42% of Americans Identify as Independents

Republican identification lowest in at least 25 years

by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- Forty-two percent of Americans, on average, identified as political independents in 2013, the highest Gallup has measured since it began conducting interviews by telephone 25 years ago. Meanwhile, Republican identification fell to 25%, the lowest over that time span. At 31%, Democratic identification is unchanged from the last four years but down from 36% in 2008.

The results are based on more than 18,000 interviews with Americans from 13 separate Gallup multiple-day polls conducted in 2013.

In each of the last three years, at least 40% of Americans have identified as independents. These are also the only years in Gallup's records that the percentage of independents has reached that level.

Americans' increasing shift to independent status has come more at the expense of the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. Republican identification peaked at 34% in 2004, the year George W. Bush won a second term in office. Since then, it has fallen nine percentage points, with most of that decline coming during Bush's troubled second term. When he left office, Republican identification was down to 28%. It has declined or stagnated since then, improving only slightly to 29% in 2010, the year Republicans "shellacked" Democrats in the midterm elections.

Not since 1983, when Gallup was still conducting interviews face to face, has a lower percentage of Americans, 24%, identified as Republicans than is the case now. That year, President Ronald Reagan remained unpopular as the economy struggled to emerge from recession. By the following year, amid an improving economy and re-election for the increasingly popular incumbent president, Republican identification jumped to 30%, a level generally maintained until 2007.

Democratic identification has also declined in recent years, falling five points from its recent high of 36% in 2008, the year President Barack Obama was elected. The current 31% of Americans identifying as Democrats matches the lowest annual average in the last 25 years.

Fourth Quarter Surge in Independence

The percentage of Americans identifying as independents grew over the course of 2013, surging to 46% in the fourth quarter. That coincided with the partial government shutdown in October and the problematic rollout of major provisions of the healthcare law, commonly known as "Obamacare."

The 46% independent identification in the fourth quarter is a full three percentage points higher than Gallup has measured in any quarter during its telephone polling era.

Democrats Maintain Edge in Party Identification

Democrats maintain their six-point edge in party identification when independents' "partisan leanings" are taken into account. In addition to the 31% of Americans who identify as Democrats, another 16% initially say they are independents but when probed say they lean to the Democratic Party. An equivalent percentage, 16%, say they are independent but lean to the Republican Party, on top of the 25% of Americans identifying as Republicans. All told, then, 47% of Americans identify as Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party, and 41% identify as Republicans or lean to the Republican Party.

Democrats have held at least a nominal advantage on this measure of party affiliation in all but three years since Gallup began asking the "partisan lean" follow-up in 1991. During this time, Democrats' advantage has been as high as 12 points, in 2008. However, that lead virtually disappeared by 2010, although Democrats have re-established an edge in the last two years.

Implications

Americans are increasingly declaring independence from the political parties. It is not uncommon for the percentage of independents to rise in a non-election year, as 2013 was. Still, the general trend in recent years, including the 2012 election year, has been toward greater percentages of Americans identifying with neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party, although most still admit to leaning toward one of the parties.

The rise in political independence is likely an outgrowth of Americans' record or near-record negative views of the two major U.S. parties, of Congress, and their low level of trust in government more generally.

The increased independence adds a greater level of unpredictability to this year's presidential election. Because U.S. voters are less anchored to the parties than ever before, it's not clear what kind of appeals may be most effective to winning votes. But with Americans increasingly eschewing party labels for themselves, candidates who are less closely aligned to their party or its prevailing doctrine may benefit.

Now that we are halfway through the 2016 election cycle it is clear that the Independent will dominate in the general election, and the "outsider" candidates have demonstrated tremendous strength in the primary elections.  Both political parties are actively trying to stop the outsiders and protect the political establishment and status quo, but Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump may be more resilient than expected by the media.  

Survey Methods

Results are based on aggregated telephone interviews from 13 separate Gallup polls conducted in 2013, with a random sample of 18,871 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by region. Landline and cell telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted to correct for unequal selection probability, nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and cell users in the two sampling frames. They are also weighted to match the national demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cellphone only/landline only/both, and cellphone mostly). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2012 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on the July-December 2011 National Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the 2010 census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.

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Obamaville 10/8 - POW! WHAM! KA POW! SPLAT! Are you kidding Me? The People Seem to be Winning! Down with the Establishment!!!

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POW!  WHAM!  KA POW!  SPLAT!

Oh man, this is far better than the old Batman TV shows I used to watch.  Here is how you can sum up the race to be the next president of the USA, LET THE INSTITUTIONS FALL!!! 

In about four months, the results of the Iowa Primary Caucasus are the first test of the People's Will in controlling their destiny.  Can the People Take Back America and restore the former Glory of the good old US of A?

Presidential Candidates

The Silent Majority of both political parties have stunned so-called political pundits by propelling the underdogs to the overdogs position as the first sign of the collapse of the Institution called politics.

The result is startling.

The Race for Nomination by the Democrats

The Queen of the Democratic party, Hillary Clinton, who has been in politics since birth and is the epitome of "politics as usual" has watched in horror as her favorability rating literally shattered the glass floor as it dropped toward oblivion.

Poor Hillary is so bad off she had to unleash the Big Dog of presidential politics, hubby Bill, a sure sign of campaign desperation, far ahead of schedule since the election is still over a year away.

Is it just me, or do you also find it rather ironic she sent Bill Clinton to win back the female vote that is deserting her at an astonishing pace.  Hillary must know best after all her experience with Bill.

Thus, Hillary was anointed the ONE in the Democratic Party to shatter the glass ceiling of no woman ever being president.  Her campaign began in earnest a long time ago with her about a thousand points ahead of her nearest rival.

Ever since, due to being over-managed and isolated from the News Media, she watched her favorability rating flame out.  But lo and behold, and defying all odds of political reality, there is an old socialist who is not even a Democrat, he has so little regard for the Institutions, and he keeps getting bigger and bigger all the time in her rear view mirror.

Hillary slipped into the position of representing the dreaded Democrat Establishment, the Potomac Politicians who think everyone in America is stupid.  Only those on the Council of Foreign Relations, who embrace abortion, and are in bed with Wall Street and Big Pharma, deserve to be a Blue Hearted Democrat.

Of course that did not sit well with those of the far left, make that far, far left.  When Hillary tried to sell herself as a reincarnated far left liberal, the image smacked of deception.  Called out by genuine true left spokespeople like Elizabeth Warren, the rising star from Massachusetts, and Bernie Sanders, the long-standing Vermont Voice in the Wilderness for the real Progressives, she had mishandled the challenge.

Now not only do people not trust her, she has slipped behind in the polls to the man who hopes to become the oldest person ever elected president.  Bernie could become the first president from the hippie era who actually represents hippies and advocates socialism.

What is stranger is that the youngest generation, the millennial 18-35 years old, also love Bernie.  It might have something to do with the popular movie Weekend at Bernies, featuring an old dead guy being pushed around in a wheelchair all weekend by his young guests.  Who knows what motivates the young.  Well, you get the picture.

Never mind that most socialists in America wound up in jail, not in the presidency.  True to form for progressive progressives, Bernie does not need to explain how to pay for the trillions of dollars in wonderful, popular, and budget busting promises he made, but then neither did Barack Obama.

The result of all this nonsense is clear, the Democrats are a single candidate force, either Hillary, the prohibitive favorite in spite of collapsing polls, or the oldest dude to covet the presidency who is neither a Democrat, nor a capitalist, Bernie Sanders.

The Race for Nomination by the Republicans

While Hillary has been the favorite for the Democrats since Obama was re-elected in 2012, the GOP is quite the opposite.  The closest the GOP had to a favorite was Jeb Bush, whose brother and father were presidents.

In fact, George Senior lost his second term to an unknown named Bill Clinton because of a rebellion against the Republican establishment by populist Ross Perot.  Sound familiar?  Unfortunately, for Jeb, he is the political Establishment.  As a result, instead of leading in the polls all year, Jeb started at his peak and has been slipping ever since.

Nowhere has the people's rebellion against the establishment and status quo been more obvious than in the GOP contest.  As many as seventeen candidates were running at the same time, and some of the best and brightest young Republicans were in the race.

Then along came Donald Trump who quickly trumped the news media, the political pundits, even the political establishment.  To a person they labeled Trump an "entertainer" with no chance to become a viable candidate.

Described by Iowa focus group participants as conceited, conniving, and competent, or words to that effect, Trump jumped into the race with both feet racing and his mouth at warp speed.  He quickly established himself as the Patrick Henry of the modern revolution against the politic establishment.

His campaign took off like a rocket bullying its way to the top of the polls.  Ever since he began his detractors, Democrat and Republican, along with the political pundits and news media, have been predicting a variety of reasons why he will not survive.  Among them his pending collapse, his loss of interest, his forthcoming drop in the polls, his inexperience in government, blah, blah, blah.  In every instant, they are dead wrong.

Trump has changed the rules of modern campaigning.  As the consummate outsider, a successful real estate and gambling tycoon, and free speaking conversational business man, he defines what is wrong with America to allow someone like Trump to belong to the elite 1% of the population that controls most of America's wealth.

When Trump is attacked by a cynical liberal reporter Trump counter-attacks normally leaving the journalist dazed.  The same is true when opponents attack Trump in the course of the campaign, you better be ready to hold on.  He has a great advantage and not just that he has no political baggage, he believes "political correctness" is senseless.

For a non-politician Trump sure can outflank the politicians and stand alone as the only true protector of the middle class.  He stole it from Hillary since no one believes she is sincere.  If you add the poll numbers for Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina, the three outsider GOP candidates, they represent over 50% of the electorate.

Most recently, Carly has been getting all the attention with her 14 point surge in the polls, the most in either party race.  She dominated the debates, has by far the best TV and viral commercials, is policy wise and politically savvy.  Carly is no longer a dark horse but a potential winner.

What an exciting political campaign it could be, if Hillary and Carly won their party nominations and squared off in the general election.  With women on both tickets, America would not only shatter the glass ceiling on women presidents, it would pulverize it.  They are clearly the most knowledgeable candidates in the fields.

Just behind the three outsiders Marco Rubio trails, with the preseason favorite Jeb Bush squandering in the middle of the pack.  Of course, it is early, and even the Donald seems to be stuck in the 25-33% range.

Speaker of the House

Just when we think the political situation is stabilizing and the world may survive, it reminds us of the seven years of foreign ineptness by the Obama Administration as the Middle East, specifically Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Yemen among others, are all disasters.

Our strategy failed, our plans and policy is non-existent, we failed to see the refugee crisis we would trigger, and our traditional allies are skeptical.  When it comes to our adversaries, like Obama archenemy Vladimir Putin among others, they are embarrassing us daily.

So the Pope comes to town, addresses a Joint Session of Congress, and the Republican Speaker of the House, John Boehner, resigns as speaker and congressman stunning the world.  He says he decided after talking to the Pope.  The radical Republican right is joyful.

About a week later, the leading candidate to replace Boehner, Kevin McCarthy, also withdraws minutes before the first ballot to elect him.  Again, the media and politicians are stunned.  All is still well with the people who could care less about the persistent politics on capitol hill.

Stay tuned folks the chaos is bound to get even better in days and weeks to come.

Now if only the Chicago Cubs could win their first World Series in 107 years and break the longest championship drought in history.

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Obamaville February 28 - No One is Running to be America's President

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What happened to patriotism and serving all the people all the time?

This is a really strange presidential election year as the president, presidential candidates, political parties and media remind us ad infinitum how the other guy can't win, is stupid, has no broad based support, no plan and no guts.

There was a time in America when a person running for president promised to do what was right for America, not just their own party and agenda.  Presidents Eisenhower, John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan were the last of the Real American presidents.

Since then it has been all about special interests, special groups, special issues, and lots of money from more special interests representing special issues.  If you think the media is not under the same influence of special interests as the politicians, then look who is advertising on that TV station, running ads in the newspapers and magazines, or saturating the Internet with propaganda through more advertising.

Obama has the unions, Wall Street, environmentalists, teachers unions, Nobel Peace Prize Committee, Harvard and health care industries to protect.

Romney the financial institutions, the rich, oil companies and small business.

Santorum the evangelical Christians, conservatives who don't check his voting record, college drop outs, and the Catholics loyal to the Italian Vatican.

Ron Paul represents those who believe the best government is no government and to hell with all those foreigners.

Newt Gingrich, well who does he represent?  We know his publisher?  The intellectually constipated?  Conservatives right of Attila the Hun?  People who wear suspenders and belts? Those who don't get enough of Obama's ethereal vision of America?

Okay, then there are the political parties.  The Democratic party hates everything said by Republicans and the GOP feels pretty much the same about the Democrats.

The conservative media hate the socialist, communist, left leaning liberals while the liberal media hate the red neck, gun toting, war mongering fat cats who make all the money.

Unions hate whoever their labor bosses tell them to hate, mostly those blood sucking rich, while the rich hate the unions unless that union works for them.

Now that we know the opposing sides, the passion of the opposing sides, the special interests of the opposing sides and the single mindedness of the opposing sides, where does that leave John Q. Public, the six pack majority everyone claims to be helping?

Well, if you are one of us, then you are a red blooded American who cleans up everyone else's mess and just wants to be left alone.  In short, you are the forgotten American, the silent majority, the one who believes charity comes first and the one who can whip the ass of all those highfalutin people claiming to know what you need.

You know why the politicians, the president, congress and even the media get such low marks in the favorable polls?  Because the real Americans aren't paying any attention to them.  The silent majority knows they are corrupted with power, awash in money, rich with ego and speak out of both sides of their mouths pretty much all the time.

Come November the Real Americans, not the media or politicians, will decide who will do the least damage running our country for four more years, elect them, then go about their business largely ignoring them since Real Americans know better that to believe what they hear from the politicians or media and have much better things to be concerned about.

Real Americans use the gifts God gave them to help each other out, not the mandates from Washington.

Common sense is still practiced in Real America.  Do you think it can be found in the halls of congress?

If Real Americans need something they make it, fix it, create it, grow it and then they share it.

They understand, as Mark Twain said, that everyone is entitled to their silly opinions and Real Americans respect others' opinions, not hate them.

So far neither the President nor Republican candidates, nor the congress or political parties seem to care what the Real Americans think.  So there is no John Kennedy or Ronald Reagan to support.

But you know what, that's okay because the fools are those who think they know what is best for everyone else.  They are not the silent, six pack majority called the Real Americans who will never surrender their God given inalienable rights and freedom to those confounded fools in Washington.

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