Obamaville July 7, 2014 - Who can run faster - away from the president?

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The Obama Foreign Policy Process

So here in the political capital (yes the spelling is right) of America there is a new game in town and it is who can run the fastest away from the policies of President Barack Obama. You might have noticed that the Obama favorability ratings have been in free fall since his re-election in 2012.

Now that his negatives have passed his positives and the people of America seem to be wondering just what it is he actually stands for there seems to be a stampede of liberals, people and institutions, running away from any responsibility for the Obama presidency.

Once upon a time such turncoats were known as hypocrites and scorned but since the list of hypocrites includes people and institutions who were once darlings of the left I guess we have to consider them enlightened.

With no apparent concept of the mechanics of the policy development and implementation process and having been abandoned by all those Obama mouthpieces who used to be around and told him what to think and say, you might say who ran interference with the media, the Obama administration is clearly adrift when it comes to coherent messaging and purpose.

There are times when presidential decisions seem to be made with an Ouija Board rather than any decision-making process.  And at times it seems as if the Dark Side is controlling the Board.  Such is the mystery of the presidential policy process.

As for the runners away:

Hillary Clinton - Her calculated ambitions to lock everyone out of the Democratic nomination for president keep running into speed bumps when it comes to her relationship with Obama.  She did lose to him then agree to be a loyal partner as his Secretary of State.  It has come back to haunt her stumbling presidential coronation as the Obama foreign policy, which she directed, has collapsed in the eyes of the public.  It will take a diversion as good as husband Bill Clinton pulled off to avoid impeachment when he was president to get out of responsibility for the Obama foreign affairs fiasco.

Bill Clinton - Lo and behold the other Clinton has also gone silent on what used to be his lukewarm support for the guy who beat his wife in the 2008 election.  Let's face it, after the rough and tumble primary it was probably the endorsement by Bill Clinton and his work to get Obama elected that propelled Barack into the presidency.  The same effort was critical to getting Obama re-elected.  Now Bill has to make all that go away to help his wife.

Harry Reid & Nancy Pelosi - The Democrat leaders of the Senate and House never seem to mention Barack Obama as if that would make him fade away in the minds of the public.  But there is a massive record of all the times they served as water boy and girl to the president, defended his actions, and supported his failures during the past six years so in their cases silence is golden.

The chairperson of the Democratic National Committee, DNC, U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida - She was handpicked by Obama to defend him against the dastardly Republicans, and also seems to have adopted the "out of mind out of sight" approach to public relations.  Once upon a time her face was all over the media defending her president but those days seem long gone and after the exasperation it must have caused her it came not a moment too soon.

The New York Times and The Washington Post - These Citadels of liberal Main Street media have changed their tune from Obama apologists to nitpickers about the failure of the president to live up to his liberal agenda promises.  In particular they seem surprised and upset about the massive failure in the Obama foreign relations.

Stay tuned because we still have 2 1/2 more years to report on.

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The Pope and the President - the Peoples' Pals

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Today President Obama had his first face-to-face meeting with the popular new renegade running the Roman Catholic Vatican, Pope Francis, already revered as the People's Pope.  In the hours before the meeting the Vatican leaked out that Obama was really no stranger to the Catholic faith as he was close to the Catholic Church in Chicago and even received a grant from the church to jump start his career as a community organizer.

Of course he followed that up with his joining the congregation of Reverend Jeremiah Wright, the fire brand Obama family friend and preacher who preached himself out of the Obama campaign for sermons like his "White folks' greed runs a world in need" racist rants.  However, since taking over the White House Obama has downplayed his religion, but not his spirituality I might add, and seldom attends church.

Pope Francis lives in a church when he is not out shattering all Vatican protocols and sharing dinner with the people, kissing babies, washing feel, tending to the sick, hugging humans, and acting like, well, like Jesus must have intended it in ministering to the masses.

So how about some comparative factoids?

How many popes have there been?

Pope Francis is pope number 266.

How many presidents have there been?

Barack Obama is president number 44.

How old is the Roman Catholic Church?

The church is 1,981 years old.

How old is the United States?

The USA is 238 years old.

How many constituents does the Pope serve?

There are 1.211 billion Roman Catholics.

How many constituents does the president serve?

There are 317 million Americans including DC.

How many countries have Catholics?

There are 201 countries with Catholic population.

How many countries have US citizens?

There is one country and six territories with US citizens.

(District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, American Samoa & Northern Mariana Islands - about 1 million people total - 600,000+ in DC)

How many Catholics in United States?

There are 78.2 million Catholics.

How many Democrats in USA?

There about 86 million Democrats.

How many Catholics support Democrats in USA?

In 1964 80-90% supported Democrats but recent elections 50%.

What does that mean?

In order to win president a democrat must get over 50% of the Catholic vote.

What is the Pope's approval rating among Catholics?

The Pope has an 88% approval rating among Catholics.

What is the President's approval rating among Democrats?

The President has an 80% approval rating among Democrats.

What is the Pope's approval rating among all Americans?

The Pope has a 63% approval rating among all Americans.

What is the President's approval  rating among all Americans?

The President has a 41% approval rating among all Americans.

Francis is the first pope from South America.

Obama is the first Black to be president.

There you have it.  And by the way, America never sends it's leader anywhere without adequate protection and support staff so our president was accompanied by 700 security, staffers and White House press corps.  Good thing Michelle wasn't with him since she was off for two weeks in China with her daughters and mother and a few hundred more security and staff personnel.

The agenda in Rome, well that remains to be seen what was really discussed because no matter what the similarities between the two and their policies of embracing the poor there are some stark and highly explosive policy differences between them including ObamaCare forcing the church hospitals to dispense contraceptives, gay marriage, wars, massive refugee concerns and others.  

As the truth of what happened behind closed doors leaks out we will report on the latest developments.  By the way, did I mention Putin beat him to the Pope stopping by the Vatican on his way to hijacking Crimea?

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Inside Political Campaigns - Why Election Eve Polls are so Wrong

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If the hundreds of polls being taken across the nation are scientific based, why are they so wrong on election day? The answer to this rather complex question is oftentimes simple as we watch the election day results and wonder how the different polls could be so far off the target. To understand the two principle deviations in polling results, one being over or underestimating the margin of victory, the second being the failure to anticipate the party impact, we must examine a number of factors.

First is the source of the polls. No matter what anyone says, any poll can distort results with some minor and seemingly insignificant actions. For example, those favoring one party over the other may inject bias with the language of the question. Questions can be deliberately designed to influence the answer by the language used.

For example, if you ask if someone likes President Obama most all Americans want to like our president and give them the benefit of the doubt. The media never portrays it that way but Americans not want their president to fail. But if you ask them if they are happy with the success of President Obama in making your life better, you will get a far different and better picture of public perception.

Any poll that is publicly published will either provide a biased view or sanitize the information to give more generic answers. It is the unpublished, insider polls that are closer to the truth and they will never be made public during an election. Most election strategy and all election media spending (advertising) is based on these secret polls. They have no interest in sharing their secrets with the media or opposition.

If you hear the president, the Democratic or Republican spokespeople or candidates talk about the public polls, which they do most of the time, you can discount the statement on partisan grounds. It is the insider daily tracking polls that tell the true story.

In order for any poll to really be accurate it must sort the sample by Democrats, Republicans and Independents which most don't. Then registered voters. Those who actually vote in off year elections which few polls ever track. And then it must be adjusted for turnout based on the motivation of the voters. Right now the Republican turnout should be about a third higher than Democrat as half of the Democrats are not satisfied with the president.

Add to that the fact traditional Democrat groups are not motivated. Then consider that the Independents who actually elected Obama have deserted him in huge numbers meaning about half of them have no party loyalty, which is not bad thing after the job both parties have done lately, so they will likely vote GOP in protest.

With 12 days to go not much will change as most people have already made up their minds. The economy is stuck until the GOP wins when you will see a significant improvement in the economy followed by improvement in the jobs picture because small businesses will know Obama cannot bury them in new taxes and regulations.

My advice, hang on to your hats as the politicians will get off one long blast of hot air in debates, commercials and appearances. When the smoke clears the people will speak and a new agenda will finally start to materialize to set us on the road to recovery, hopefully with a lot of new faces. Just 12 more days and people can start telling the truth again.
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NCAA Football - Arizona Jumps 10 Spots in Polls

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Another week of college football and a couple of more teams are solidifying their place in the college polls and this one was a little hard to handle. You see, I was born and raised in Iowa City, Iowa, home of the University of Iowa from the Big Ten. Though I moved away before high school both my parents attended Iowa and I spent lots of time visiting grandparents and family there long after I moved away.

I was at many Iowa football games throughout the glory years of the Rose Bowl teams of the late 1950's and into the 1960's and when it came time to go to college Iowa was on my short list along with Yale, the University of Missouri and a few schools far away. In the end I opted to go far away to get a fresh start on life and I chose the University of Arizona in Tucson where I played on the basketball team and was to get a shot at baseball.

Late last Saturday night Iowa played Arizona at Tucson and I had somewhat mixed loyalties since both were in the top 25. Just the year before the two teams met and Iowa won 27-17 at Iowa City as both teams went on to great years with Arizona only tumbling bad when they faced Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl. It was a great learning experience for the Wildcats as they were humbled 34-0. But it left them understanding what it would take to be among the elite football teams in America.

Now I also had mixed loyalties in that game since I lived in Nebraska for 12 years, got to know the coaches and Husker players, and both my kids graduated from Nebraska. In fact I was in Nebraska during the years they rise to the top of the NCAA football ladder and won a slew of national championships.  Ironically, the Big Red of Nebraska are joining the Big Ten next year and will be in the same division as Iowa.

Now living on the east coast I had to stay up until almost 2 am to watch the Iowa - Arizona classic and was stunned as Arizona roared to a 27-7 lead before the Hawkeyes starting clawing their way back into the game. In hindsight I knew that anyone from the Midwest playing in the southwest desert was in for a shock as Iowa football was not played in 100 degree nighttime temperatures.

But I also knew these two programs, along with Nebraska this year, all have young coaches among the best in the nation and one should never count them out. Iowa roared back and tied the game with just a few minutes left. When they missed the extra point on their last touchdown it looked like the game might go into overtime.

But the Wildcats held their poise and marched right back down the field to score. When Iowa got the ball for a last minute drive the Arizona defense rose to the occasion stopping the Hawkeyes 3 times in a row for losses and holding on for a 33-27 victory which resulted in Arizona jumping 10 spots in the national polls.

Iowa still has a great shot at the Big Ten title and high national ranking while Arizona is a valid contender for the PAC Ten title. Nebraska, who pounded Washington at Washington 56-21,could easily take the Big 12 title and national title. Someone has to win and someone has to lose but only in NCAA football can both teams walk away with their heads held high as we were treated to what college football is all about.

AP Top 25



• 1.Alabama (53)
• 2.Ohio St. (5)
• 3.Boise St. (1)
• 4.TCU
• 5.Oregon
• 6.Nebraska
• 7.Texas (1)
• 8.Oklahoma
• 9.Florida
• 10.Arkansas
• 11.Wisconsin
• 12.South Carolina
• 13.Utah
• 14.Arizona
• 15.LSU
• 16.Stanford
• 17.Auburn
• 18.Iowa
• 19.Miami (FL)
• 20.USC
• 21.Michigan
• 22.West Virginia
• 23.Penn St.
• 24.Oregon St.
• 25.Michigan St.

Media Credibility and the Polls - What to Believe

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With primaries over we are almost through the silly season of the never-ending campaigns for control of our government and it is time to take a look around at all the damage that has been done. How do we do that? Well the media and politicians use a clever technique called polling to keep us informed of what we think and the big question is does it really do that? No!

Wake up media and stop trying to sway the American public opinion. It has been 40 years since I started developing campaign polling and demographic databases and the one constant through nine presidents is nothing has changed. The American people will always make up their own mind and if you try to influence them your polls will be the same disaster as always.

So why should the news media care? Because the credibility of the media is just as poor as the credibility of the president, congress and corporate America and those reporting the news should not be considered a joke. If I didn’t care about the reputation of the media I would not care, although the extreme efforts of some media to mislead the public does provide some form of entertainment.

News reporting is a protected privilege in America, it is even protect by the Constitution in the Bill of Rights. But along with such privileged status comes responsibility, the responsibility to not abuse your rights and many of the media seem to forget.

What is the purpose of polls? Polls are a snap shot at that moment of time in reaction to a specific question. No more no less. The more objective the question the more objective and honest will be the answer. The more scientific the pool of people polled the more accurate the results.

Every day political news reporters try to apply the results of daily polls to what will happen in the future. For example, they tell us Democrats and Republicans are tied in the polls today and that means the Democrats will do much better in the Midterm elections than expected. Such extrapolation is nonsense and the media knows better. When you hear such things just know there is a hidden agenda by those making such silly reports.

This is September, not November, and so far one third of the voters, the Independents, have not even been polled since all primary polls only talk to Democrats and Republicans. Those few polls that do survey Independents are not getting much press but they show the largest GOP lead ever recorded over the Democrats, well in double digits.

Any poll done at this time when one third of the voters are not even counted, and that one third may well be the angriest of all the voters, could be 20-25% inaccurate. So why does the media continue reporting the party results? They know better.

The only polls accurate right now are those concerning the public sentiment and they foreshadow serious change this fall. More than two-thirds of the public think the country is headed in the wrong direction, more than two-thirds think Obama and the Democrats are doing the wrong things, and more than two-thirds think congress, all of congress, is just as misguided. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe as I have pointed out consistently all year, a tsunami is about to hit the Democrats in control.

If the parties are running even at this time and both are held in low regard by the populace it is only because the Independents are not being counted. Come November 2 the game changes radically and the combined Republican opposition with the Tea party and Independent disgust with government will make a statement that will be heard around the world. The party in power will fall.

Also, there is no way the results in one state mean the same thing will happen in another state as the people of Delaware are far different than those in Ohio or Iowa, just as New York is different than California. Polls can also be very distorted if the people surveyed are not registered to vote, or even if they are registered does that mean they will actually vote.

As I said recently, just look at the numbers. Well over 4 million more Republicans than Democrats voted in the primaries in 2010, the first time since 1930 more Republicans voted in the primaries than Democrats. Yet sitting on the sidelines because they were denied the right to vote by archaic campaign laws is the mighty Independent voting block and they are just as mad as the "rogue" Republicans who have been leading the attack.

Take New Hampshire for example. The latest polls show 70% of Independents are dissatisfied with the direction our federal government is going. In yesterday's primary there were 266,144 eligible Democratic voters and about 70,000 turned out. There were 264,451 eligible Republican voters and about 152,000 turned out, more than twice as many Republicans. Yet there are 388,589 Independent voters who did not vote. If 70% are fed up with the direction of Obama and the Democrats they will be joining the vote and bring about a Republican landside in November.

A poll of “eligible voters” can be wrong because about 40% of eligible voters are not even registered to vote. Even a poll of “registered voters” could also be wrong for less than half will vote in the election and the enthusiasm of the voter will dictate the turnout. Republicans have much greater enthusiasm to vote and Independents may have even greater enthusiasm. Few polls will ever go into the level of detail needed to get accurate results.

There is a final distortion of poll results if the caller identifies who employs them or if they say it is for an organization like Gallup, Rasmussen or the Washington Post for example as some people are going to be inclined to answer the way they think the “media” wants them to answer. People do not want to feel stupid so they might just make up answers, especially on issues they do not know.

The bottom line is this. If you believe the polls published by the media you are as crazy as the media. On the other hand, if you really want to see a meaningful poll the following are the latest results from a Gallup Poll on the Confidence of the American Public in our institutions.

It would appear the general public already know what they think of the media and their polls when 78% of our citizens do not have a great deal of confidence in Television news, yet they have even less confidence in Congress with 89% not having confidence, the worst record of any American institution. Also note that nearly two thirds of Americans, 64%, do not have confidence in the President. Then remember these numbers are almost three months old. How low can you go by now?

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Nation's Capitol Hit by Largest Earthquake Ever as Sarah Palin surges in Poll to tie Obama

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The largest earthquake ever recorded within 30 miles of Washington, D.C. rattled the capital early Friday just as a Public Policy Poll was released showing Sarah Palin has now tied Obama for the first time in a head to head match up for 2012 with each receiving 46% of the vote.

This poll by a Democrat leaning organization showed all major GOP candidates tied or ahead of Obama as storm clouds on the election horizon continue to overshadow any achievements touted by the White House. It is not a good omen for the 2010 midterm elections as the Democrats tied to Obama are in danger of losing heavily, perhaps even losing control of the House and Senate.



As for the Palin quake, it hit at 5:04 a.m. ET with a magnitude of 3.6, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It was centered near Rockville, Md., the USGS National Earthquake Information Center said. NBC News reported that the quake was felt in the D.C.-area, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

Amy Vaughn, a spokesperson for USGS, told WRC-TV that the quake was the largest recorded within 50 kilometers (31 miles) of Washington since a database was created in 1974.



In terms of the Public Policy Poll, the organization said every Republican candidate we polled this month saw a peak in favorability. In individual match ups the gap closed between Obama and his potential Republican competitors this month. This is the first month since we began polling on the 2012 election that Obama is behind or tied with a majority of the Republican candidates.

According to the poll, Obama "trails Mitt Romney 46-43, Mike Huckabee 47-45, Newt Gingrich 46-45, and is even tied with Sarah Palin at 46.



In yet another polling triumph Sarah Palin gave more reason for liberals to have a stress test as she was in first place among GOP candidates for President in her favorable rating at 76%, higher than those for Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Bobby Jindal. See the following Gallup Poll.

July 16, 2010

Palin's 76% Favorable Among Republicans Tops Others in GOP



PRINCETON, NJ -- Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is the best known and most positively rated of five possible contenders for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Her 76% favorable rating among Republicans is higher than those for Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Bobby Jindal.

Even more bad news. Among all voters in the US Palin continues to lead all Republican candidates in favorable rating and is tied with the Obama favorable ratings.



Frank Newport of Gallup says Palin has the strongest name identification and positives among Republicans at this juncture. Only 4% say they don't know enough about her to have an opinion, and, by more than 3-to-1, those opinions are positive rather than negative.

While it is early, way too early to project election impact in 2012, her position at the top of the charts for both Republican voters and the public at large is quite amazing.

With the national media suddenly realizing she continues to be a thorn in the side of Obama in spite of the fact she has never run for president, is not a candidate for any office and is not even a public office holder gives credibility to the Tea Party movement and the Palin appeal.

Stay tuned for more intensive efforts to trash Pain by the old boys network and the liberal left. Maybe one day the left will report on just Palin and her policy instead of every bit of trivia trash about her and her family they can manufacture or find no matter what the cost. Then the people can judge her fairly.

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