Deflation - An Economist's Illusion or the Real Deal?

Okay, so the Obama administration says we are in a period of deflation as opposed to the typical inflation we normally see. Deflation, a rather pathetic word that reminds me of a flat tire. But deflation should be great because it means prices are going down, not up. But there is one problem, some major price categories seem to be going up to me.

To understand what people are talking about let us take a look at the Ask.com definition of the term "deflation" and what it really means.

Question: What Is Deflation?

Answer: The definition of deflation is when asset and consumer prices continue to fall. This may seem like a great thing to consumers, except that the cause for deflation is a long-term drop in demand.

Unfortunately, a drop in demand means that a recession is already underway, with job losses, declining wages, and an ongoing decline in the value of your home and your stock portfolio. Deflation is a result of businesses dropping prices in a desperate attempt to get people to buy their products.

Officially, deflation is measured by a decrease in the Consumer Price Index. However, the CPI does not measure stock prices, which retirees use to fund purchases, and businesses use to fund growth. It also does not measure housing prices, instead using rental equivalent. This often lags home price declines, and underestimates deflation in the CPI.

To combat deflation, the Federal Reserve executes an expansionary monetary policy. It reduces interest rates, and increases the money supply in an attempt to jump-start economic growth. In addition, the government can offset deflation with expansionary fiscal policy. It can put more money into circulation by lowering taxes, increasing government spending, and incurring a temporary deficit to do so. Of course, if the deficit is already at record levels, that tool may no longer be available.

Like inflation, deflation is very difficult to combat once it is entrenched. As businesses and people feel less wealthy, they spend less, reducing demand further. Prices drop in response, giving businesses less profit.

I don't know about you but it seems to me gas has started rising again. In fact the price per barrel of crude oil, which impacts on many supplemental products from transportation to fertilizer, has increased 90% since the beginning of this year alone and now stands at about $62.00 a barrel. No wonder OPEC did not reduce the amount of oil produced this week when the price now is above the 2007 prices in place before the outrageous price spiral.

Taxes are certainly up, especially state and local taxes, and you can bet the aftermath of the incredible federal spending will be substantial future price increases. Obama has already set a new record for the annual federal deficit and the stimulus and bailout programs are just starting to spend money with multi-billion dollar bailouts waiting in the wings for a bankrupt Chrysler and General Motors and a teetering AIG insurance giant.

A lot of food prices are up or they have cleverly repackaged items so we are paying the same for less goods, thus really increasing the price. Organic foods are not dropping either even though there has been a push to be healthy and sales are up.

Certainly restaurant prices do not seem to be falling. In fact with the addition of designer coffee in McDonald's some prices are actually going up as well. When there are "specials" it usually means you get a silver dollar sized hamburger instead of the meat eaters delight we've grown to love.

Medical and health insurance rates continue to spiral in spite of the Obama efforts to overhaul the health care industry. After a decade of double digit annual price increases this year prices are expected to drop down to just a 7% increase. Only in our nation's capitol could a 7% increase be treated as a drop in prices.

As the definition said, two of the most important cost factors missing from the deflation figure are stock prices and housing prices. No one will question that these two have dropped with stocks, and your retirement funds, still about 40% less in value than a year ago.

Housing prices have also gone down, a lot in some areas. But the national market tends to be local market driven so one area may have no loss in value over the recent years (2006 - 2009) while a neighboring area could have substantial loss of value.

Take, for example, the case of Coltons Point. The Washington, DC metro area including Northern Virginia and Maryland has suffered an overall loss of value of about 24% the past year. However, a Washington Post survey of all home sales in the metro area the past year shows there are a few locations where prices have actually increased. One of these unique areas is the riverside resort of Coltons Point where values have increased by over 3% the past year.

Still nationwide stock and housing prices have dropped but neither is even factored into the deflation model which makes me wonder just what value is the economic news on deflation? It is distorted since it missed two of the biggest cost factors. The Consumer Price Index which is the basis for determining inflation or deflation is often a lagging indicator of economic performance much like unemployment figures. Conversely the stock market is a forward indicator of economic growth having already factored in jobs reports before they are even released.

The Labor Department figures on new unemployment claims this week dropped well below analysts expectations for the 2nd time in three weeks yet the unemployment rate climbed to 8.9% and the lagging figure could reach 10% later this year even if the economy is in a full recovery cycle as the Coltons Point Times and more recently other financial news services are beginning to predict.

In light of all this conflicting information and simultaneous upward and downward economic pressure my advice is for you to ignore deflation and inflation reports and the endless speculation about them as it is something the Federal Reserve must manage and we the people have no role in what the Federal Reserve does with our money anyway.

On Balance What Problems Might Obama be Solving?

As the new Administration continues to struggle to get new programs out the door, which is certainly understandable when you are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the public, I wanted to offer my help to them.

First, I find it rather bizarre that after two years of investment financial analysts, media financial analysts, Congressional financial analysts and Executive branch financial analysts being dead wrong on the economy and virtually every aspect of the economy that Washington, Wall Street and Madison Avenue continue to listen to them as if they had a clue what they are talking about. Don't the leaders in the Obama administration remember? Oh yeah, the same mouthpieces that blew it before are speaking for the new administration.

Congress has been studying the collapse of the housing market for over a year and we are yet to see anything except ways to save mortgages in foreclosure or save the criminals that wrote the mortgages that are in foreclosure. Even Obama's chief of staff was part of the Freddie Mac Fanny Mae mess that evolved from the liberalization of mortgage rules.

You want to fix the problem here is a good start. Allow 4.5% refinancing with minimum closing costs. Bank of America is allowing refinancing after receiving $45 billion in federal bailout funds but the Bank of America closing costs on refinancing have risen to $16,000 when they used to be $3000-5000. What kind of a deal is that for clients? They may be lending money again, our money from the federal bailout, but now it costs us 3-8 times as much.

There is no reason to require appraisals, title searches and registration fees costs thousands of dollars for refinancing mortgages already owned by the banks. Get rid of the corrupt fees and rigged appraisals and put money back in the pocket of mortgage holders and you will finally get real stimulus. While some of those in foreclosure should be saved most should not be when over 95% of the people are making payments on time. Lowering the monthly mortgage payment of the good loans will immediately put those hundreds of dollars a month into the economy.

The sale of foreclosed homes should not be allowed to impact on the market value of homes not being foreclosed. Appraisers are dropping market rates where ever there is a glut of mortgages and applying such loss of value to regional areas experiencing no foreclosures. Unscrupulous appraisers can get away with the same manipulation to lower values as they did to raise values the past 3 years.

Speaking of appraisers, if a home has been remodeled and exceeds energy and environmental code it should have a much higher value than a home not remodeled. Even homes built to code are far from achieving energy and environmental efficiency peak potential. Right now a home needing $50,000 to $100,000 in energy and environmental upgrades to exceed standards is valued the same as a home with the most advanced materials and equipment, a joke if the nation really wants to save energy. There is no value gained by making the improvements. We are encouraged by present law to take shortcuts and not use advanced materials to keep the costs down.


Historic preservation must accommodate energy and environmental improvements and reward them when made but these homes are also discounted for age and penalized for maintaining historical standards. For example, if a home was built without closets but used cabinets or free standing wardrobe closets they will be rejected as a bedroom and significantly decrease the present value of the home even though they are being historically preserved. Does that make any sense?

What about the banks, how do we save them from self-destruction? Well, if you are liberal and believe it is our responsibility to pay for their sins then do whatever Pelosi and Franks tell you as you already have made up your mind they are too big to fail even if it takes nationalization to save them. What is a few more hundred billion dollars when money can be printed at will? Even Obama slipped $750 billion more into his new budget to cover unexpected bank losses.

I wonder why the Administration finds it so important to save banks like Citigroup and Bank of America when they have already cost us $90 billion to keep them alive, snd after all that cash they are still on life support. Now since all individual deposits in those banks were already guaranteed by the FDIC, that means any money they need has nothing to do with the little people. So why in the world have we already pumped in $90 billion when the little people were protected? Who is Congress protecting and bailing out if the money is not needed for depositors?

So where does this leave you? In the first place, 47% of you didn't even vote for Obama which the media seems to keep forgetting as they talk about the president as if everyone in the world voted for him. Here in American a six percent victory is not a landslide. Truth is he should have won by 15-20% and didn't.
However we still have those that did support him. I doubt they all believed he would advance such a liberal - socialist agenda, especially in such dire financial times.

In normal times I would say contact your Congressmen to stop the largest government spending spree in history but the Democratic Majority are demanding he spend even more. Obama promised to stop pork barrel spending. His own stimulus bill had at least $10 billion in pork and a new appropriations bill he is expected to approve has $410 billion, with a substantial amount of pork barrel. I guess Obama can't keep all his promises.

We have no campaign reform being discussed though it is the biggest violator of ethics and cause of corruption in Washington. We have no control over pork barrel spending as witnessed by the legislative record to date. We have no control over lobbyists working in government as a number of lobbyists have been hired by the Obama administration.



We do have a worldwide expansion in abortion approved. We do have stem cell research approved that encourages the "harvesting" of unborn fetuses for scientific research. We do have a move to force unions into all the states and industries nationwide, even if a state has chosen to be right-to-work. We do have millions of federal dollars being poured into liberal activist organizations that demand bigger government and more spending.

One final observation and that is regarding the liberal-biased media in the television and newspaper business who were so responsible for trashing Palin and McCain and getting Obama and Biden elected. As these media are rapidly falling into bankruptcy and disappearing I'd say your hero seems to have lost interest in your cause. Now are you glad you got him elected? Do you still have a job?

Big Money Now Owns America

. . . . .

I think this is a pretty good description of the treacherous ground we are venturing down with the financial meltdown and the government response of tossing billions into the mess.

"Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be saved by the government and nationalized; ..."

Big Money gets greedy. Big Money finds new ways to rip off the public like the sub-prime mortgage market. Big Money hedges their bet by secretly backing a future unknown to be president for when the day of reckoning may come. Big Money gets Congress to change the laws and regulations to allow them to avoid being detected as they pursue the illegal deals. Big Money gets too greedy and people can't afford the phony mortgage deals leaving trillions of dollars in losses to be absorbed by someone.

Big Money has now destroyed the US credit market and must change tactics to cover their losses. Big Money manipulates the oil futures market to generate outrageous oil profits to cover the outrageous mortgage losses driving prices to record $150 per barrel levels. Big Money sees chaos as opportunity to drive competitors from the marketplace and suddenly 10 legendary investment banking houses are reduced to two survivors.





Big Money sees chaos as opportunity to finally secure unlimited control and access of the US Treasury and Federal Reserve and tells Congress, whose campaign coffers are inflated with Big Money donations, to pass multi-billion dollar bailout bills. Big Money gets benefactors in Congress to bail out billion dollar losses in mortgage, insurance and banking industries. Big Money realizes they got too greedy and have now nearly destroyed the world economy thus limiting future chances to steal from the government if they don't fix the mess.




Big Money gets unknown candidate for president elected and promptly loads up his team of economic advisors to assure blame is deflected for mess and they control the future of the world economy. Big Money gets Democratic friends elected to control Congress and assure future Big Money prosperity. Big Money gets new Congress to adopt nearly trillion dollar economic stimulus bill to revive the sconomy and increase stock values.



Big Money gets US Treasury to underwrite "toxic" loans of Big Money and their banking partners thus transferring the debt to the taxpayers. Big Money gets Congress to pass home mortgage reforms to bailout all the toxic pending foreclosure losses of the past three years, again paid for by taxpayers. Big Money keeps new president from laying any blame for the economic meltdown, regulatory and oil price manipulation where it belongs thus assuring the continue to dominate the world.

Big Money never even has to tell the government how many trillions of dollars it will cost them to fulfill the economic stimulus, credit restoration, Wall Street welfare and Main Street salvation programs caused by the greed of Big Money over the years. Big Money has now successfully protected their financial windfalls and deferred payment to the next generation. Big Money is now hauling the taxpayer money from their Big Money friends in Congress and the White House to the big banks they own to finance the latest schemes they devise to further the interests of Big Money around the world.

The world is now the Big Money playground and the Treasury and Federal Reserve are now safely secured in the hands of Big Money. That pretty much sums it up. And by the way, the end of the quote and the source is:

"the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism."

Karl Marx, 1867

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Why Not Warning Labels for Financial Experts?

One thing the federal government can do is require warning labels for anything that is, may be or could be hazardous to the health or safety of the citizens. They are expert at it with the dozens of alphabet soup agencies forcing manufacturers to slap notices on the labels or to disclose warnings when doing television commercials.

Haven't you all heard the dozens of warnings for different drugs. When they finish their outrageous lists you wonder how anyone in their right mind could ever use the damn stuff. Some even say the product "may" help a few people even if most can't be helped. I think that it a little crazy.

Still, the FDA, CPSC, DOA, ICC, SEC and FTC among countless others have developed quite a reputation for warning us about everything under the sun. Some prescription bottles have longer warnings than product information.

So it occurred to me that there is nothing worse for your mental or physical health than getting wrong advice on what to do with your money. It seems every bank, brokerage house, investment banker, stock broker, 401 K advisor and anyone out there telling you what to do with your money should have a warning label because every one of them have been wrong in the past year or two.

The wild predictions of spiraling oil prices up to $200 a barrel, skyrocketing inflation, a total collapse of the housing and credit markets, massive foreign trade deficits, and horror story after horror story intended to drive the market up or down any particular day depending on whether the source of bad news is buying or selling are just too much.

These people have been instrumental in causing our home values to fall, our stock portfolios to dissipate, our retirement funds to evaporate and our economy to nearly collapse. Isn't it about time the feds label them for what they are, a danger to our health and well being?

Maybe it should read like the following and be required on their news articles or over their picture if they are on television?

DANGER: The following is from a proven mental minimalist whose motivation is toward their own funds, bonuses, buyouts, and bosses with no regard to the fool consumers listening to them. These people are idiots and so are you if you do what they say. Ignore them or burn in hell with them!

Who Will Fall Next? Banks and the Credit Crisis

So who are the largest investment banks in the world?

1. Bank of America
2. Citigroup
3. JP Morgan
4. HSBC
5. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
6. Royal Bank of Scotland Group
7. ING Group
8. Credit Agricole
9. Wachovia
10. BNP Paribus SA

How about the top brokers in the world?

1. JP Morgan Chase & Co.
2. Goldman, Sachs & Co.
3. Citigroup
4. UBS
5. Bank of America
6. Lehman Brothers
7. Merrill Lynch
8. Morgan Stanley
9. Bear Stearns
10. Credit Suisse


Finally who are the largest banks in the world?

1. UBS AG - Switzerland
2. Barclays - UK
3. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group - UK
4. Deutsche Bank AG - Germany
5. BNP Paribus SA - France
6. The Bank of Toyko Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. - Japan
7. ABN AMPRO Holding NV - Netherlands
8. Societe Generale - France
9. Credit Agricole SA - France
10. Bank of America NA - USA
11. JP Morgan Chase Bank National Association - USA
12. Banco Santander Central Hispano SA - Spain
13. Unicredito Italiano SpA - Italy
14. Credit Suisse Group - Switzerland
15. Citibank NA - USA
16. ING Bank NV - Netherlands
17. Bank of Scotland - UK
18. Fortis Bank NV/SA - Belgium
19. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation - Japan
20. HSBC Bank plc - UK

Notice the names appearing on all three lists? How about the fact that four of the top 20 banks in the world are UK, three from France, two from Switzerland, two from the Netherlands, and one each from Germany, Spain, Italy and Belgium. Hummm, 15 of the 20 largest banks in the world are from Europe.

So there is a concentration of wealth but also a concentration of credit exposure. So far these banks have lost billions of dollars from investing in the US sub-prime mortgage market and the credit crisis but do we really know the scope of the crisis?

Losses of nearly $400 billion have already been written off from sub-prime mortgages. A confidential study by Bridgewater Associates, the second largest hedge fund in the world expects total losses from the credit crisis to reach $1.6 trillion, yes trillion. That is four times the current staggering losses.

One of these major players has already gone under (Bear Stearns) and more can be expected if the credit losses approach that level. In fact one of the major players, Fortis Bank, expects a collapse of the US financial markets with 6,000 US banks filing bankruptcy and major corporations like General Motors and Citigroup becoming victims to the US financial meltdown.

Very quietly 7 US banks have already gone bankrupt this year but are we prepared for a massive meltdown? Today the Bush administration announced we face the largest budget deficit in history. Oil prices are out of sight and housing prices are collapsing. Perhaps the meltdown is already well underway.

Of course many of these institutions are on the earlier list I published of the financial institutions that have paid billions of dollars in fines for fraud, price fixing and other economic high jinks that used to land you in jail but now just get you a slap on the wrist and a tax deduction.

Many of these banks already recovered billions of dollars of losses with their manipulation of the oil futures market so maybe the projections of Fortis have to be updated by adjusting them for the billions of dollars already stolen from the citizens of the world at the gas pumps.

Will we ever reach the point where our financial institutions won't have to steal, manipulate and defraud the public in order to cover their losses from creative stock frauds which should never have happened in the first place if the government regulators were doing their job? Stay tuned for Armageddon.