Friday, May 05, 2017

The Coltons Point Times predicts Emmanuel Macron will be the next President of France


The Coltons Point Times predicts Emmanuel Macron will be the next President of France when the dust settles from this Sunday's French election.

The French election this Sunday is a rare opportunity to see what happens in France when the two candidates who are not from the two dominant political parties square off.  It will be Emmanuel Macron versus Marine Le Pen.

At this late stage, Macron has a lead but remember the American election where Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump in the polls the closing days, up to a double-digit lead in some polls.

Macron, a banker, is a candidate for his own En Marche party and if elected, will be the youngest French president in history, and also one who has never held elective office.  Le Pen is a candidate of the National Front party, formerly known as a rather radical minor party, and she has injected new enthusiasm and life into it.  

With former President Obama's last-minute endorsement of Macron today, the American Democrats hope to tie their wagon to a rising foreign leader's star, but the link is pretty weak considering the Democrats have always been backers of the major party socialist or left leaning parties.  President Trump has stayed out of the race.

Ironically, the candidate Obama endorsed, Macron, would be far more comfortable with Trump than Le Pen, and the traditional French left wing parties should be upset the former American Democratic president did not help them.

What are the main political parties in France that self-destructed in the primary?

UMP - Union for a Popular Movement - (Union pour un Mouvement Populaire)
PS - Socialist Party - (Parti Socialiste)
MoDem - Democratic Movement - (Mouvement démocrate)
PCF - French Communist Party - (Parti Communiste Français)
Verts - The Greens - (Les Verts)
NC - New Centre - (Nouveau Centre)

Just remember that these are the major parties and France has a seemingly endless number of legitimate parties for a multitude of causes.

The following quotes from The London Telegraph provide a rather good assessment of the candidates and race.

"As for the two candidates for president, Emmanuel Macron is a member of the En Marche! party while Marine Le Pen is a member of the National Front.  Needless to say, none of the top French parties can take credit for either candidate which makes this election unique..

One outcome of the French presidential election on Sunday is certain: Europe won't be the same.
The choice between candidates, however, could hardly be more stark.
A victory by far-right candidate Marine Le Pen would shake the foundations of the Western world. President Trump's victory was seen as consequential in Europe, but a Le Pen win would be incomparably more significant, some liberals say. Whereas Trump has frequently changed his mind on issues, Le Pen's agenda has remained virtually unchanged for years. She has vowed to pull France out of NATO's military command, the euro zone and the European Union. Few doubt that she would deliver.

Her centrist opponent, Emmanuel Macron, who is leading in the polls, takes an opposing view: His pro-European agenda is based on a neoliberal economic approach and on a moderate stance on social issues. He would also be the most pro-American French president in a long time.

With Macron as French president, the U.S. will encounter a much stronger, strategic, self-confident, forward-thinking France and therefore Europe,” said Nicholas Dungan, a senior fellow at the D.C.-based Atlantic Council who works in France. “The U.S., whether it understands it or not, needs a strong Europe.”

Americans who live in France say there are several reasons that a Macron victory could benefit the United States. France is a strong NATO ally and has recently conducted airstrikes against the Islamic State alongside the United States and other nations. French forces have also participated in NATO operations in Afghanistan. Le Pen, however, wants to cooperate more closely with Russia instead of the United States."

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