Kentucky Derby Last Chance - Here are the Expert Picks

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Louisville Courier-Journal

2016 Kentucky Derby expert picks

Jonathan Lintner, The Courier-Journal2:15 p.m. EDT May 6, 2016

The Courier-Journal collected quick Kentucky Derby 142 picks from our staffers as well as voters in The C-J's weekly top 20 poll that have followed the Triple Crown trail from its start.

With little consensus among handicappers about this year's field, best of luck at the betting window.

Dan Wolken, USA TODAY SPORTS

Winner: #16 Shagaf

On the board: #15 Outwork, #2 Suddenbreakingnews

Longshot I like: #18 Majesto

Comment: Nobody has impressed me more in the morning than Shagaf, who is well-bred and talented but lightly raced. I’ll excuse his flat Wood Memorial based on the muddy track and some traffic trouble because the physical signs tell me he’s sitting on his best race.

Frank Angst, The Blood-Horse

Winner: #15 Outwork

On the board: #5 Gun Runner, #13 Nyquist

Longshot I like: #4 Mo Tom

Comment: Considering the track conditions, Outwork ran a very impressive race to win the Wood Memorial and I think his early speed will help him in this year’s Derby, which is not deep with early runners.

Gabby Gaudet, Gulfstream Park/Pimlico

Winner: #14 Mohaymen

On the board: #9 Destin, #13 Nyquist, #5 Gun Runner

Longshot I like: #4 Mo Tom

Comment: Mohaymen's Florida Derby was too bad to be true. Maybe it was because he chased a talented/fresh horse five-wide on a off track? There's a reason why he was once the Derby favorite, and I look for a rebound.

Jeff Greer, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #10 Whitmore

On the board: #11 Exaggerator, #13 Nyquist

Longshot I like: #12 Tom's Ready

Comment: Picking Whitmore with the most scientifically-proven method out there: You pet it, you bet it.

Jon Hale, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #11 Exaggerator

On the board: #13 Nyquist, #12 Tom's Ready

Longshot I like: #8 Lani

Comment: I've only picked the Derby winner once, so anyone who takes these picks to heart is making a poor life choice.

Trixie Hammer, LadyAndTheTrack.com

Winner: #3 Creator

On the board: #15 Outwork, #14 Mohaymen

Longshot I like: #17 Mor Spirit

Comment: There are bigger longshots than Mor Spirit, but I'll take the "anteater" for my fun win bet.

Joe Kristufek, Churchill Downs

Winner: #9 Destin

On the board: #13 Nyquist, #14 Mohaymen, #15 Outwork

Longshot I like: #2 Suddenbreakingnews

Comment: With nine committed closers in the field and only a handful of forward types, I truly expect the early Derby tempo to be moderate.

Jonathan Lintner, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #19 Brody's Cause

On the board: #13 Nyquist, #5 Gun Runner

Longshot I like: #20 Danzing Candy

Comment: If the Blue Grass winner pushes the button on the back stretch, he could get there even with an outside post position.

Marty McGee, Daily Racing Form

Winner: #11 Exaggerator

On the board: #3 Creator, #19 Brody's Cause

Longshot I like: #16 Shagaf

Comment: The Brothers Desormeaux have come a long way since they teamed together with Yazoo at Acadiana Downs.

Laffit Pincay, NBC Sports

Winner: #15 Outwork

On the board: #13 Nyquist, #10 Whitmore

Longshot I like: #20 Danzing Candy

Comment: Outwork will avenge his sire Uncle Mo's Derby disappointment.

Mary Rampellini, Daily Racing Form

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the Board: #11 Exaggerator, #14 Mohaymen

Longshot I Like: #2 Suddenbreakingnews

Comment: R-E-S-P-E-C-T. The champion Nyquist will be getting it from this corner as a four-time Grade 1 winner whose talent, tactical speed and determination has carried him to wins at distances ranging from five furlongs to a mile-and-an-eighth.

Paul Rolfes, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #14 Mohaymen, #19 Brody's Cause

Longshot I like: #5 Gun Runner

Comment: There are 20 good, potentially great, 3-year-olds in the field, with 19 out to prove Nyquist isn’t another American Pharoah. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s stable might deliver a Derby winner – if not Gun Runner then Creator.

Tim Sullivan, The Courier-Journal

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #5 Gun Runner, #16 Shagaf

Longshot I like: #12 Tom's Ready

Comment: Hard to pick favorite to win a fourth straight Derby; harder to find a better horse.

Hank Wesch, Del Mar

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #14 Mohaymen, #2 Suddenbreakingnews

Longshot I like: #4 Mo Tom

Comment: Good break from good post + high cruising speed + heart to fight last quarter = Roses.

Jon White, Santa Anita Park

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #11 Exaggerator, #8 Lani

Longshot I like: #16 Shagaf

Comment: I'll go with undefeated Nyquist in what shapes up as a fascinating Derby, though I did have more confidence in American Pharoah last year and I would not be surprised if there is an upset this year.

Tim Wilkin, Albany Times-Union

Winner: #14 Mohaymen

On the board: #17 Mor Spirit, #19 Brody’s Cause

Longshot I like: #15 Outwork

Comment: Mohaymen reclaims top spot after Florida Derby flop, and at a price, too.

Alicia Wincze Hughes, Lexington Herald-Leader

Winner: #13 Nyquist

On the board: #9 Destin, #19 Brody's Cause

Longshot I like: #18 Majesto

Comment: Nyquist has already beaten most of the major contenders and he is versatile enough to make his own luck regardless of trip and/or pace scenario.

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Iowa Horse Brody's Cause in Kentucky Derby after winning Bluegrass Stakes - All Winnings to Des Moines Area Community College

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How much can a horse win at the 2016 Kentucky Derby?

PLACE	PRIZE MONEY
1st	$1,240,000
2nd	$400,000
3rd	$200,000
4th	$100,000
5th	$60,000
TOTAL	$2,000,000

Ankeny Horse Representing Central Iowa at Kentucky Derby

POSTED 6:30 PM, MAY 3, 2016, BY STAFF WRITER

ANKENY, Iowa -- There will be extra interest in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, both nationally and locally.

Nationally, the derby comes off a Triple Crown year for the first time in decades.

Locally, Albaugh Family Stables out of Ankeny owns Brody's Cause.

Brody's Cause won the Kentucky Bluegrass Stakes and those who follow horse racing closely give Brody's Cause a good shot to win the Derby.

“To know that I got a horse into the Kentucky Derby, that was the mission when we started getting into the horse business,” said Denny Albaugh of Albaugh Family Stables. “I think it might have changed (now) to winning the Kentucky Derby."

Winnings of Iowa Horse in Kentucky Derby Pledged to DMACC

POSTED 2:58 PM, MAY 3, 2016, BY STAFF WRITER, UPDATED AT 04:23PM, MAY 3, 2016

ANKENY, Iowa -- The owners of a local Kentucky Derby-bound horse announced over the weekend they pledge to give derby winnings to DMACC.

Ankeny billionaire Dennis Albaugh and his wife, Susan, say if their horse, Brody's Cause, wins the 142nd "Run for the Roses" this Saturday, they'll give the $500,000 prize to DMACC.

Right now Brody's Cause has a "12-to-1" shot to win the race. That's the fifth-best odds in the 17-horse field.

Albaugh graduated from DMACC in 1972.

“This pledge combines two of my passions: DMACC and horse racing. It also offers another opportunity for me to share my successes with the College that started me on my career path many years ago. I wouldn’t be where I am today without my DMACC education. I’m proud to say DMACC is my university," he said.

Brody’s Cause is owned by the Albaugh Family Stables.

Coverage of the Kentucky Derby begins at 3 p.m. Saturday on WHO TV.

The Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown Heroes and Videos American Pharoah and Secretariat

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Secretariat and American Pharoah - American Legends

Secretariat Triple Crown

American Pharoah Triple Crown

Secretariat versus American Pharoah

The Immortal Secretariat

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Kentucky Derby Preview - Horses, Post Position, Odds 2016

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Post Position : Horse : Jockey : Mike Battaglia’s Morning Line Odds

1. Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder 50-1 

2. Suddenbreakingnews Luis Quinonez 20-1 

3. Creator Ricardo Santana Jr. 10-1 

4. Mo Tom Corey Lanerie 20-1 

5. Gun Runner Florent Geroux 10-1 

6. My Man Sam Irad Ortiz Jr. 20-1 

7. Oscar Nominated Julien Leparoux 50-1 

8. Lani Yutaka Take 30-1 

9. Destin Javier Castellano 15-1 

10. Whitmore Victor Espinoza 20-1 

11. Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux 8-1 

12. Tom’s Ready Brian Hernandez Jr. 30-1 

13. Nyquist Mario Gutierrez 3-1 

14. Mohaymen Junior Alvarado 10-1 

15. Outwork John Velazquez 15-1 

16. Shagaf Joel Rosario 20-1 

17. Mor Spirit Gary Stevens 12-1 

18. Majesto Emisael Jaramillo 30-1 

19. Brody’s Cause Luis Saez 12-1 

20. Danzing Candy Mike Smith 15-1 

AE-21. Laoban Cornelio Velasquez 50-1 

AE-22. Cherry Wine Robby Albarado 30-1

KENTUCKY DERBY 142 POST POSITION DRAW QUOTES 

Trojan Nation (Post position 1, morning line 50-1) – Paddy Gallagher (trainer) – “We’re in! He’s got no (early) speed. We’re fine there.”

Suddenbreakingnews (Post position 2, morning line 20-1) – Donnie Von Hemel (trainer) – “It's good with us. He's surrounded by horses with similar running styles and shouldn't get shuffled back. He should be able to get comfortable from there." 

Creator (Post position 3, morning line 10-1)/Gun Runner (Post position 5, morning line 10-1) – Steve Asmussen (trainer) – “Creator, he's kind of out the back early. He won't have a long ways to go left to find the fence early. (Gun Runner) "It's looks like all the pace is to the outside. Hopefully, prerace, everything goes smoothly. Hopefully, he stands up in the gates. Hopefully, he's away from there really good. But, we're very anxious right now with a very good horse going into the Derby. He's a tremendous horse. You want a good trip to show who he is.'' 

Mo Tom (Post position 4, morning line 20-1) – Tom Amoss (trainer) – “I think the two most significant things about the draw are we drew toward the rail but not so close that it's a problem, and that there's a lot of speed way on the outside in this post-position draw. Those horses are going to have to be used out of the starting gate, and that I think will ensure a good pace, which is what we need.'' 

My Man Sam (Post position 6, morning line 20-1)/Shagaf (Post position 16, morning line 20-1) – Chad Brown (trainer) – “I’m fine with both posts. I was looking for an inside post with My Man Sam so six will work just fine and we were looking for something on the outside with Shagaf with as big as he is so he’ll stay out of trouble. Sixteen will work just fine. So now it’s just up to the horses and the jockeys.” 

Oscar Nominated (Post position 7, morning line 50-1) – Mike Maker (trainer) – “I’m pleased, obviously. It’s better than the one-hole that we drew a couple of years ago. No complaints.” 

Lani (Post position 8, morning line 30-1) – Mikio Matsunaga (trainer) – “It was a good draw, ideal. The middle was ideal so I have no complaints about drawing number eight.” 

Destin (Post position 9, morning line 15-1)/Outwork (Post position 15, morning line 15-1) – Todd Pletcher (trainer) – “I’m good with them. We like the 15 for Outwork. It gives us some room inside between the gates. And I’m OK with the nine for Destin. The only thing that concerns me is the horse inside Destin (Lani, the Japanese representative).  I have some concern about that horse acting up. But the posts themselves are fine.” 

Whitmore (Post position 10, morning line 20-1) – Ron Moquett (trainer) – “We're tickled with it. All we've been wanting is a good post and a good trip. Last year, we didn't get a good post and I don't know if it would have changed anything, but this year we have a better post and a better horse."

Exaggerator (Post position 11, morning line 8-1) – Keith Desormeaux (trainer) – “I’m fine with it. Kent (Desormeaux, his brother and his rider) seems a bit concerned because he’ll have to wait some after they load. But I don’t see a problem. The horse is as cool as a cucumber. It’ll be fine.” 

Tom’s Ready (Post position 12, morning line 30-1) – Dallas Stewart (trainer) – “Great draw. Great field. We're ready to go. The Bensons are ready to go. We're ready to roll.'' 

Nyquist (Post position 13, morning line 3-1) – Doug O’Neill (trainer) – “We like it. We see a good sign. We were post No. 13 when we won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.” 

Mohaymen (Post position 14, morning line 10-1) – Kiaran McLaughlin (trainer) – “We’re happy. He’ll be the last one in the main gate, so it’s great. There’s a little space between the two gates. There are a lot worse posts, so we’re happy.” 

Mor Spirit (Post position 17, morning line 12-1) – Gary Stevens (jockey) – “I’m happy with it.” 

Majesto (Post position 18, morning line 30-1) – Gustavo Delgado (trainer) – “I’d prefer a little more inside, but I cannot change it. But remember he’s a strong horse.” 

Brody’s Cause (Post position 19, morning line 12-1) – Dale Romans (trainer) – “At first, I was a little bit disappointed, but after looking at the draw with the speed (Danzing Candy) outside of us, we’ll let him clear. I think it’s going to be all right.” 

Danzing Candy (Post position 20, morning line 15-1) – Cliff Sise (trainer) – “At first you're kind of stunned when they say 20, but when you start thinking about it, it's not that bad. It's better than the one-hole, especially for a speed horse -- he can come over very gradually and he won't sit in the gate long. Actually, it might be in our favor. We're outside of any other speed horse, so we'll take it.”

KENTUCKY DERBY 142 FACT BOX 

Date: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Raceday Information: Gates Open: 8 a.m. / First of 14 Races: 10:30 a.m. ET
Race: Churchill Downs Race 12 Approximate Post Time: 6:34 p.m. ET Television: NBC (4-7:30 p.m. ET)
Radio: Horse Racing Radio Network (5-7 p.m. ET)
Grade: I
Distance: 1 ¼ Miles
Total Purse (if 20 horses start): $2,391,600 First (if 20 horses start): $1,631,600 Second (if 20 horses start): $400,000 Third (if 20 horses start): $200,000 Fourth (if 20 horses start): $100,000 Fifth (if 20 horses start): $60,000 Scratch Time: Friday, May 6, 2016 at 9 a.m. ET 

   Kentucky Derby Post Position History

Post       Record           Win%        ITM%            Avg.

1            86-8-4-5          9.3%         19.8%           8.26

2            86-7-5-13         8.1%         29.1%           7.76

3            86-5-6-8          5.8%         22.1%           8.10

4            86-5-6-4          5.8%         17.4%           8.44

5            86-9-8-2          10.5%       22.1%           7.44

6            86-2-7-3          2.3%         14.0%           9.28

7            85-6-6-5          7.1%         20.0%           7.69

8            85-8-5-4          9.4%         20.0%           8.34

9            82-4-5-8          4.9%         20.7%           8.72

10           79-9-6-9          11.4%       30.4%           7.54

11           75-2-4-3          2.7%         12.0%           8.96

12           71-3-3-3          4.2%         12.7%           9.51

13           69-4-5-7          5.8%         23.2%           8.36

14           61-2-5-5          3.3%         19.7%           9.23

15           54-5-2-1          9.3%         14.8%           10.06

16           45-4-3-3          9.1%         22.7%           9.39

17           37-0-1-2          0.0%          8.1%            11.16

18           29-1-4-0          3.4%         17.2%           9.17

19           24-1-1-0          4.2%          8.3%            12.58

20           14-1-0-1          7.1%         14.3%           10.57

21           2-0-0-0            0.0%          0.0%            13.50

22           1-0-0-0            0.0%          0.0%            8.00

23           1-0-0-0            0.0%         0.0%             7.00

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