Kentucky Derby Preview - Horses, Post Position, Odds 2016

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Post Position : Horse : Jockey : Mike Battaglia’s Morning Line Odds

1. Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder 50-1 

2. Suddenbreakingnews Luis Quinonez 20-1 

3. Creator Ricardo Santana Jr. 10-1 

4. Mo Tom Corey Lanerie 20-1 

5. Gun Runner Florent Geroux 10-1 

6. My Man Sam Irad Ortiz Jr. 20-1 

7. Oscar Nominated Julien Leparoux 50-1 

8. Lani Yutaka Take 30-1 

9. Destin Javier Castellano 15-1 

10. Whitmore Victor Espinoza 20-1 

11. Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux 8-1 

12. Tom’s Ready Brian Hernandez Jr. 30-1 

13. Nyquist Mario Gutierrez 3-1 

14. Mohaymen Junior Alvarado 10-1 

15. Outwork John Velazquez 15-1 

16. Shagaf Joel Rosario 20-1 

17. Mor Spirit Gary Stevens 12-1 

18. Majesto Emisael Jaramillo 30-1 

19. Brody’s Cause Luis Saez 12-1 

20. Danzing Candy Mike Smith 15-1 

AE-21. Laoban Cornelio Velasquez 50-1 

AE-22. Cherry Wine Robby Albarado 30-1

KENTUCKY DERBY 142 POST POSITION DRAW QUOTES 

Trojan Nation (Post position 1, morning line 50-1) – Paddy Gallagher (trainer) – “We’re in! He’s got no (early) speed. We’re fine there.”

Suddenbreakingnews (Post position 2, morning line 20-1) – Donnie Von Hemel (trainer) – “It's good with us. He's surrounded by horses with similar running styles and shouldn't get shuffled back. He should be able to get comfortable from there." 

Creator (Post position 3, morning line 10-1)/Gun Runner (Post position 5, morning line 10-1) – Steve Asmussen (trainer) – “Creator, he's kind of out the back early. He won't have a long ways to go left to find the fence early. (Gun Runner) "It's looks like all the pace is to the outside. Hopefully, prerace, everything goes smoothly. Hopefully, he stands up in the gates. Hopefully, he's away from there really good. But, we're very anxious right now with a very good horse going into the Derby. He's a tremendous horse. You want a good trip to show who he is.'' 

Mo Tom (Post position 4, morning line 20-1) – Tom Amoss (trainer) – “I think the two most significant things about the draw are we drew toward the rail but not so close that it's a problem, and that there's a lot of speed way on the outside in this post-position draw. Those horses are going to have to be used out of the starting gate, and that I think will ensure a good pace, which is what we need.'' 

My Man Sam (Post position 6, morning line 20-1)/Shagaf (Post position 16, morning line 20-1) – Chad Brown (trainer) – “I’m fine with both posts. I was looking for an inside post with My Man Sam so six will work just fine and we were looking for something on the outside with Shagaf with as big as he is so he’ll stay out of trouble. Sixteen will work just fine. So now it’s just up to the horses and the jockeys.” 

Oscar Nominated (Post position 7, morning line 50-1) – Mike Maker (trainer) – “I’m pleased, obviously. It’s better than the one-hole that we drew a couple of years ago. No complaints.” 

Lani (Post position 8, morning line 30-1) – Mikio Matsunaga (trainer) – “It was a good draw, ideal. The middle was ideal so I have no complaints about drawing number eight.” 

Destin (Post position 9, morning line 15-1)/Outwork (Post position 15, morning line 15-1) – Todd Pletcher (trainer) – “I’m good with them. We like the 15 for Outwork. It gives us some room inside between the gates. And I’m OK with the nine for Destin. The only thing that concerns me is the horse inside Destin (Lani, the Japanese representative).  I have some concern about that horse acting up. But the posts themselves are fine.” 

Whitmore (Post position 10, morning line 20-1) – Ron Moquett (trainer) – “We're tickled with it. All we've been wanting is a good post and a good trip. Last year, we didn't get a good post and I don't know if it would have changed anything, but this year we have a better post and a better horse."

Exaggerator (Post position 11, morning line 8-1) – Keith Desormeaux (trainer) – “I’m fine with it. Kent (Desormeaux, his brother and his rider) seems a bit concerned because he’ll have to wait some after they load. But I don’t see a problem. The horse is as cool as a cucumber. It’ll be fine.” 

Tom’s Ready (Post position 12, morning line 30-1) – Dallas Stewart (trainer) – “Great draw. Great field. We're ready to go. The Bensons are ready to go. We're ready to roll.'' 

Nyquist (Post position 13, morning line 3-1) – Doug O’Neill (trainer) – “We like it. We see a good sign. We were post No. 13 when we won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.” 

Mohaymen (Post position 14, morning line 10-1) – Kiaran McLaughlin (trainer) – “We’re happy. He’ll be the last one in the main gate, so it’s great. There’s a little space between the two gates. There are a lot worse posts, so we’re happy.” 

Mor Spirit (Post position 17, morning line 12-1) – Gary Stevens (jockey) – “I’m happy with it.” 

Majesto (Post position 18, morning line 30-1) – Gustavo Delgado (trainer) – “I’d prefer a little more inside, but I cannot change it. But remember he’s a strong horse.” 

Brody’s Cause (Post position 19, morning line 12-1) – Dale Romans (trainer) – “At first, I was a little bit disappointed, but after looking at the draw with the speed (Danzing Candy) outside of us, we’ll let him clear. I think it’s going to be all right.” 

Danzing Candy (Post position 20, morning line 15-1) – Cliff Sise (trainer) – “At first you're kind of stunned when they say 20, but when you start thinking about it, it's not that bad. It's better than the one-hole, especially for a speed horse -- he can come over very gradually and he won't sit in the gate long. Actually, it might be in our favor. We're outside of any other speed horse, so we'll take it.”

KENTUCKY DERBY 142 FACT BOX 

Date: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Raceday Information: Gates Open: 8 a.m. / First of 14 Races: 10:30 a.m. ET
Race: Churchill Downs Race 12 Approximate Post Time: 6:34 p.m. ET Television: NBC (4-7:30 p.m. ET)
Radio: Horse Racing Radio Network (5-7 p.m. ET)
Grade: I
Distance: 1 ¼ Miles
Total Purse (if 20 horses start): $2,391,600 First (if 20 horses start): $1,631,600 Second (if 20 horses start): $400,000 Third (if 20 horses start): $200,000 Fourth (if 20 horses start): $100,000 Fifth (if 20 horses start): $60,000 Scratch Time: Friday, May 6, 2016 at 9 a.m. ET 

   Kentucky Derby Post Position History

Post       Record           Win%        ITM%            Avg.

1            86-8-4-5          9.3%         19.8%           8.26

2            86-7-5-13         8.1%         29.1%           7.76

3            86-5-6-8          5.8%         22.1%           8.10

4            86-5-6-4          5.8%         17.4%           8.44

5            86-9-8-2          10.5%       22.1%           7.44

6            86-2-7-3          2.3%         14.0%           9.28

7            85-6-6-5          7.1%         20.0%           7.69

8            85-8-5-4          9.4%         20.0%           8.34

9            82-4-5-8          4.9%         20.7%           8.72

10           79-9-6-9          11.4%       30.4%           7.54

11           75-2-4-3          2.7%         12.0%           8.96

12           71-3-3-3          4.2%         12.7%           9.51

13           69-4-5-7          5.8%         23.2%           8.36

14           61-2-5-5          3.3%         19.7%           9.23

15           54-5-2-1          9.3%         14.8%           10.06

16           45-4-3-3          9.1%         22.7%           9.39

17           37-0-1-2          0.0%          8.1%            11.16

18           29-1-4-0          3.4%         17.2%           9.17

19           24-1-1-0          4.2%          8.3%            12.58

20           14-1-0-1          7.1%         14.3%           10.57

21           2-0-0-0            0.0%          0.0%            13.50

22           1-0-0-0            0.0%          0.0%            8.00

23           1-0-0-0            0.0%         0.0%             7.00

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Preakness Week in Maryland

Leg two of the triple crown of horse racing moves to Pimlico in Maryland for the Preakness this Saturday. If the Kentucky Derby is the pride of the southern aristocrats and the Belmont in New York is the pride of New York, the Hamptons, Cape Cod and New England Eastern society then the Preakness is surely the pride of the beer drinking college party crowd.

Very strange things are happening, however, that may forever doom the Animal House image like the State of Maryland said no one can bring their own cooler full of beer this year. Last year 126 people were thrown out of the infield for disorderly conduct while six were arrested. Kids may not want to spend the big bucks for Preakness beer so they might not show up.

There is the theme, "the People's Race - the People's Party." That sounds like words out of the Communist Manifesto by Karl Marx. Then again a state like Maryland might want to impress the new liberal Democrats in control of our nation's capitol. We may find out soon if they are the people's party.




You see there is a filly named Rachel Alexandra who has won 5 straight stakes races. The owners kept her out of the Kentucky Derby and ran her in the Kentucky Oaks for fillies instead. She won by 20+ lengths. The only way she can race in the Preakness is if other eligible horses do not run.

Twenty horses ran in the Derby. Only 14 are allowed to run in the Preakness. There were 13 triple crown horses committed to run leaving one opening if no other eligible horses filed to run. Along comes Rachael whose new owner wants her in with the big boys.

Suddenly the owners of horses eligible but not running are being called by owners in the race and asked to enter their horse in the Preakness, even if they didn't intend to run, so Rachael would not get in the field of fourteen. It seems the filly has some of the money people scared she may distort the odds and blow away any chance Derby winner Mind that Bird has for a triple crown.



Television ratings are everything. It has been 31 years since we had a triple crown winner, the longest stretch in history. During those years eleven horses won the first two, (Derby and Preakness) but lost in the Belmont. Big money wants to keep Rachael out while the People want her in.

If Rachael gets denied the chance to race it will be a result of skullduggery and collusion on the part of owners in the race. That would be a big blow to the liberal Democrats, media and Obama backers who are the self-proclaimed protectors of the "people's party". I say give the filly a chance to prove herself.

On the other hand this could all be a contrived media act to manipulate the odds as if Rachael gets in the race she will be a 1-1 favorite over all the guys. The odds on all the rest of the field will go up meaning more money will be made if any beat Rachael. The TV Ratings will increase, they are already sliding, if there is some new drama in the plot.

To top it all off, there will be a show in the infield to distract the college kids from realizing they are paying a fortune for beers. There will be man's favorite Olympic competition, Women's Beach Volleyball with the bikini clad bronzed babes like Misty May Treanor and Kerri Walsh, USA Olympic champions.




Add to that a concert by ZZ Top and a couple of other rock groups, all on the infield with the volleyball babes and thousands of drunk kids and you might think you just dropped acid, I mean, you were supposed to be at a horse race in Maryland and wound up in a flashback at Woodstock.

I'm for Rachael.

Kentucky Derby Time!!!

Pictured Derby Longshot Desert Party

My favorite time of the year, the first Saturday in May and the annual running of the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports, the Kentucky Derby. This is the 135th year of the Derby making it the oldest major sporting event in America and this year promises even more as there may be a favorite, but it is not overwhelming. That means anything can happen which is normal for the Derby anyway as the horse least likely to win is the pre-race favorite.

This year I Want Revenge is the favorite but he is not an overwhelming favorite. So I am going to take the approach that tradition will dominate and the favorite won't win. Horses like Dunkirk, Pioneer of the Nile and Friesan Fire all could win and will all have low odds. But I think this year will be different so I am going with the long shots.

I think the race will be between two such long shots, Desert Party and West Side Bernie and if I am right it will be a sizzling finish. West Side Bernie will probably push the lead throughout the race and Desert Party will remain in the pack. If Desert Party (15-1) is patient and remembers his roots, he could be the winner. Though from Dubai and having lost his last race against another horse from Dubai, Regal Ransom, both were bred in Kentucky.

Pictured Derby Longshot West Side Bernie

However, if West Side Bernie, a much longer shot in the early odds (30-1) does not get pinned between horses while challenging for the lead he could grab the trophy and Bed of Roses right out from under all the favorites. If Bernie gets an outside pole position it will make him even stronger. Now those of you who believe one long shot is crazy, two long shots are downright insane, well you may be right.

But I happen to think the Derby is always capable of a surprise. Winner - West Side Bernie, and Runner up Desert Party.