.
Sometimes the most obvious
is the most difficult to see and when it comes to the American media the most
obvious and most logical is most often overlooked. Ever since Obama first ran for office there
has been a peculiar Main Street
media fascination with the Tea Party movement and when it comes to the liberal
media, it became an obsession.
For some odd reason the
Lame Street media has been afraid, fearful, and terrorized by the thought that the
Tea Party and its seemingly radical right wing supporters represents a grave
threat to the American political process.
If the media wants to
condemn a conservative commentator they label them "Tea Party"
whether they have any affiliation with the Tea Party or not. It is the liberal way to stigmatize the on
air personalities that cause so much havoc in their lives.
Yet most conservative
commentators have never joined the Tea Party and view it as an element of the
Republican party, not a separate institution.
So the Democrats have tried to diminish any threat from the Tea Party by
talking about the splintering effect the Tea Party has on the Republicans.
I suspect they just don't
get it.
The only threat to the two
party system in America is their arrogance in thinking there really is just two
parties in the country and their failure to see we are rapidly approaching the
point of no return when more American are alienated by both political parties
and their partisan nonsense when in truth there is little difference between
them.
Every election we get
closer to the point when there are going to be more Independents than BOTH
Democrats and Republicans. When over 50%
of the public believes neither party serves the public but both parties have become
their own Special Interests.
With the continuing
decline in public confidence in our political parties, politicians and media
and with the continued ignorance or deliberate effort by the media to disregard
the growing number of Americans rejecting both political parties that day we
cross the 50% threshold is rapidly approaching and will most certainly be here
by 2016 or 2020.
The following is a Gallup
Poll which most media failed to report on the continuing surge in the number of
Independents in America. They are the real danger to the two party
system and the real hope for healing our Nation.
January 8, 2014
Record-High 42% of Americans Identify as Independents
Republican identification lowest in at least 25 years
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- Forty-two percent of Americans, on
average, identified as political independents in 2013, the highest Gallup has
measured since it began conducting interviews by telephone 25 years ago.
Meanwhile, Republican identification fell to 25%, the lowest over that time
span. At 31%, Democratic identification is unchanged from the last four years
but down from 36% in 2008.
The results are based on more than 18,000 interviews with Americans from 13
separate
Gallup
multiple-day polls conducted in 2013.
In each of the last three years, at least 40% of Americans have identified
as independents. These are also the only years in
Gallup's records that the percentage of
independents has reached that level.
Americans' increasing shift to independent status has come more at the
expense of the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. Republican
identification peaked at 34% in 2004, the year George W. Bush won a second term
in office. Since then, it has fallen nine percentage points, with most of that
decline coming during Bush's troubled second term. When he left office,
Republican identification was down to 28%. It has declined or stagnated since
then, improving only slightly to 29% in 2010, the year Republicans "shellacked" Democrats in the midterm elections.
Not since 1983, when
Gallup
was still conducting interviews face to face, has a lower percentage of
Americans, 24%, identified as Republicans than is the case now. That year,
President Ronald Reagan remained unpopular as the economy struggled to emerge
from recession. By the following year, amid an improving economy and
re-election for the increasingly popular incumbent president, Republican
identification jumped to 30%, a level generally maintained until 2007.
Democratic identification has also declined in recent years, falling five
points from its recent high of 36% in 2008, the year President Barack Obama was
elected. The current 31% of Americans identifying as Democrats matches the
lowest annual average in the last 25 years.
Fourth Quarter Surge in Independence
The percentage of Americans identifying as independents grew over the course
of 2013, surging to 46% in the fourth quarter. That coincided with the partial
government shutdown in October and the problematic rollout of major provisions
of the healthcare law, commonly known as "Obamacare."
The 46% independent identification in the fourth quarter is a full three
percentage points higher than Gallup
has measured in any quarter during its telephone polling era.
Democrats Maintain Edge in Party Identification
Democrats maintain their six-point edge in party identification when independents'
"partisan leanings" are taken into account. In addition to the 31% of
Americans who identify as Democrats, another 16% initially say they are
independents but when probed say they lean to the Democratic Party. An
equivalent percentage, 16%, say they are independent but lean to the Republican
Party, on top of the 25% of Americans identifying as Republicans. All told,
then, 47% of Americans identify as Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party,
and 41% identify as Republicans or lean to the Republican Party.
Democrats have held at least a nominal advantage on this measure of party
affiliation in all but three years since
Gallup
began asking the "partisan lean" follow-up in 1991. During this time,
Democrats' advantage has been as high as 12 points, in 2008. However, that lead
virtually disappeared by 2010, although Democrats have re-established an edge
in the last two years.
Implications
Americans are increasingly declaring independence from the political
parties. It is not uncommon for the percentage of independents to rise in a
non-election year, as 2013 was. Still, the general trend in recent years,
including the 2012 election year, has been toward greater percentages of
Americans identifying with neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic
Party, although most still admit to leaning toward one of the parties.
The rise in political independence is likely an outgrowth of Americans'
record or near-record negative views of the
two
major U.S. parties, of
Congress,
and their
low
level of trust in government more generally.
The increased independence adds a greater level of unpredictability to this
year's congressional midterm elections. Because
U.S. voters are less anchored to
the parties than ever before, it's not clear what kind of appeals may be most
effective to winning votes. But with Americans increasingly eschewing party
labels for themselves, candidates who are less closely aligned to their party
or its prevailing doctrine may benefit.
Survey Methods
Results are based on aggregated
telephone interviews from 13 separate Gallup
polls conducted in 2013, with a random sample of 18,871 adults, aged 18 and
older, living in all 50 U.S.
states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total
sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point
at the 95% confidence level.
Interviews are conducted with
respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews
conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each
sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents
and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by region.
Landline and cell telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial
methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the
basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted to correct for
unequal selection probability, nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and
cell users in the two sampling frames. They are also weighted to match the
national demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education,
region, population density, and phone status (cellphone only/landline
only/both, and cellphone mostly). Demographic weighting targets are based on
the March 2012 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S.
population. Phone status targets are based on the July-December 2011 National
Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the 2010
census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design
effects for weighting.
In addition to sampling error,
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.
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