The Iowa Caucus - Predictions from an Iowa Hayseed - Hillary or Bernie, Cruz or Trump?

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Today is the beginning of the American Presidential campaign to replace Barack Obama as Iowans caucus to pick their choices for Democrat and Republican candidates in one of the most unusual methods used in the USA.

The "caucus" Iowa style is like no other form of primary in that it is the first test of the strength of candidates and first test of their ability to appeal to people, not the media, not the contributors, but the people.

The two parties differ somewhat in how to run the caucus, with the Democrats disqualifying anyone with less than 15% of the vote, which means a redistribution of the votes for O'Malley to the surviving candidates Clinton and Sanders.

What the media failed to note until today, is that if Bernie and Hillary tie as the polls seem to reflect, and Clinton is the establishment candidate while Sanders is the outsider, it seems logical that the O'Malley votes are anti-Clinton and therefore will go to Sanders.

If there is a high voter turnout, and there most certainly will be, Sanders and Trump stand to benefit the most.  If the anti-establishment mood of the nation is real, and all evidence points to that fact, again Sanders and Trump benefit.

On the Republican side, there are a dozen good candidates, including two who won the Iowa primary previously.  Then there is the only true outsider championing the "silent majority" of Americans Trump, who has never run for public office.

Challenging Trump is Cruz, claiming to be an outsider but after winning a Senate seat in 2012 and personally managing the shut down of the US government a couple of years ago, he hardly qualifies as an outsider.  He also failed to mention he received one million dollars in last minute loans from Goldman Sachs and Citibank in order to win a runoff for the Senate seat.

In my mind, the anti-establishment mood of the nation is a direct result of control of our government by special interests, specifically the financial and banking powerhouses and pharmaceutical drug makers, through the failure to have adequate campaign financial limits.

In this election year, the most special of special interests finance and support two candidates.  First is Hillary Clinton, whose family received millions and millions of dollars from Goldman Sachs dating back to Bill Clinton's impeachment, while Hillary has received millions from the financial giants and corrupt hedge funds.

The second is Ted Cruz, who not only violated federal campaign laws by failing to report the Goldman loans, he also failed to mention in his bio that his wife is a twelve year employee and director of Goldman Sachs.

The news media chooses to make qualified predictions of what will happen today, sort of hedging their bets since they have been wrong about every aspect of the election this year.  If the turnout is very high, they say, there is a chance Sanders and Trump will win, but the odds seem to be a lower turnout and wins by Clinton and Cruz because both spent more money and have the best organization in Iowa.

I say nonsense a qualified prediction is like a wimp whose idea of taking a chance is going out on a limb that is two feet off the ground.  Perhaps we should throw the media into the establishment category as they have done as much as the big bankers and beholden politicians to undermine our country.

Did I mention Barack Obama is the third politician who represents the best office holder money can buy because of his own decade long relationship to Goldman Sachs?

At any rate, the Coltons Point Times is not afraid to make real predictions on the Iowa race and here they are.

The Winners

The American people who know our government, financial system, our political parties, and campaign financing system are corrupt to the bone.

Bernie Sanders who will send shock waves throughout the Democrat establishment machine by beating heavily favored Hillary Clinton with his multitudes of young, energetic, and untested volunteers.  At the same time, he will help strike a mortal wound to the equally corrupt political party machines that have controlled our elections.

Donald Trump who is the other side of the double-bladed sword that will lead to the destruction of the special interest control of America, and who, like Bernie, comes to the party with no strings attached.  Like Sanders, Trump is bringing millions of Americans back into the political process in order to slay the mighty machine that has bled America dry.

America has seen nothing like this avalanche of support for outsiders since Andrew Jackson became our seventh president in 1829 when he ran against the corrupt financial establishment trying to take control of the young America.

"It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their own selfish purposes."

                                                                                    Andrew Jackson

Jackson served two terms, founded the Democrat party, and closed down our national bank, the Second Bank of the United States.

Rand Paul considered inconsequential by the media and Republican Party but who can be invaluable in shaping a future America free of special interests.  I sense he will far exceed expectations.

The Losers

Hillary Clinton who finds she is no longer heir-apparent to the presidency and must stand accountable for all her bizarre acts in government.

Ted Cruz who discovers a conservative with no personality is largely boring and cannot be trusted.

Goldman Sachs who thought they had both political parties compromised but might just be wrong.  Even if she loses in Iowa, Hillary still is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democrat nomination since Bernie is not even a real Democrat and he is a socialist.

Barack Obama who is counting on Hillary to protect his presidential legacy even though trusting the Clintons to protect anyone other than a Clinton is not a good sign for our president.

Finally, Harvard and Yale could easily be losers as the two Ivy League schools have controlled the American presidency for the past 28 years.  There are 2,618 accredited colleges and universities in America, give someone else a chance.

Hillary (Yale) or Cruz (Harvard) is the standard-bearer expected to maintain the stranglehold on the presidency that Obama (Harvard), Bush, Jr. (Yale and Harvard), Clinton (Yale), and Bush, Sr. (Yale) have preserved through four straight presidencies.

  

Trump crowds

As for the caucus in general, I expect the Republican turnout to set a new record and the Democrats to be very close, if not break, the Obama record in 2008.

Bernie crowds

In addition, since Trump and Bernie will both win the New Hampshire primary in another week, the shock waves will continue to reverberate through the political parties and media as the campaign unfolds.

A side note, the Democrat winning the Iowa caucus won the presidency in 2008 but the Republican winning the caucus has not won the presidency in 20 years.

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Obamaville Thursday, February 19 - The Deep Freeze

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Weather...

Here I sit, 65 miles from downtown Washington, D.C., waiting for the coldest temperature on this date in 40 years, maybe since records started in the 1800's, or maybe since the last Ice Age.  Ever since the weather stations went digital, the weather reports have made a shambles of the truth.

I do not know what a meteorologist has for breakfast, but lately the bizarre forecasts might indicate something comparable to LSD.  If they say we will get two feet of snow, we might get five inches.  When they say it will be around 20 degrees tonight, and then they revise it to a wind chill of 25 below, we know it is not just cream in their coffee.

Did I mention that the forecast for just 48 hours later is over 50 degrees?  The good news is no one really puts much faith in the weather reports, I mean it is still a government agency so accuracy and efficiency are distant dreams.

Politics...

Nothing has changed.  Obama trashes the Republicans and the Republicans trash the President and the Democrats watch and strategically trash both the President and Republicans.

On the presidential scene, the apparent front runners are a Bush for the Republicans and a Clinton for the Democrats.  My how things have changed since 1988 and 1992.

It has been 28 years since a Bush was first elected president, in 1988.  During the 28 years, from 1988 until the next election in 2016, a Bush will be president 12 years, a Clinton for 8 years, and everyone else in America the remaining 8 years.

Pot Smoking Ivy League Presidents - Harvard & Yale

What do you think about the dominance of the Ivy League?  A graduate of Yale will be president for 20 of the 28 years, and a graduate of Harvard for 16 of the 28 years.  I think the Ivy League invented the term "Fuzzy Math" which might explain why Yale's 20 years and Harvard's 16 years add up to 36 years, not to 28 years.

Do not worry there is an answer for all deviations and this time a legitimate one.  One president graduated from both Yale and Harvard.  In fact, he is the only president in history with that intellectual distinction, his name, George W. Bush, as in junior.

Is it not ironic that one candidate for president in 2016 with a legitimate chance to win is also the first person in 28 years to NOT graduate from Harvard or Yale.  It is not Hillary Clinton (Yale), or Mitt Romney (Harvard), or Ted Cruz (Harvard).

Yet another twist in logic and reason, one of the top picks to break the Ivy League stranglehold on the presidency is Jeb Bush, whose father and brother are Yale and Harvard alumni.

Other legitimate candidates like Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Martin O'Malley are among others who are not Harvard or Yale graduates.

Health, Energy & Education...

Every month brings new super viruses, mutating bacteria, other drug resistant diseases, and fewer and fewer cures to an unsuspecting public.  UCLA Medical Center is the latest breakout of a dramatic new virus, which has already killed 2 and exposed about 180 people in the first reports.

America celebrated becoming energy independent with the third major derailment and explosion of train cars filled with crude oil.  Not even napalm bombing in Vietnam could match the spectacular explosions from the West Virginia fireworks this week.

The North Dakota crude oil apparently burns better than other production here in the west.  With thousands of oil tankers using train tracks through about every major city in America, look for Keystone Pipeline approval as a "safe" alternative to urban trains.

Terrorism...

ISIS terrorists seem to be popping up in country after country with their unique theology and evil ways.  With Obama still in a scolding mood, so far Jordan and Egypt are the only nations taking a lead in armed resistance and dedication to destroying the terrorists.

Our paper tiger approach to foreign affairs has also been a great aid to Vladimir Putin, who used American indecision to carve a land mass to connect Crimea to the Russian border, as predicted a long time ago by the Coltons Point Times.

Economy...

Stock Markets are pushing against their highest levels in history in the midst of a mediocre, at best, recovery that has left most Americans with less cash, less equity, less choices, and a lousy selection of cheap made consumer products.

In my opinion, the markets have nowhere to go but down and they will take all the 401K money with them since most 401K funds have stock based investments.  Market players should have the ability to sit on investments for 5-10 years before needing the funds, in order to come out ahead.  As for the rest of us, forget it.

Sports...

The Super Bowl was rocked by scandal, the deflate gate conspiracy, while the Patriots took home the money.

College football crowned the first playoff king, as Ohio State beat number one Alabama in the semi-finals, and number two Oregon in the finals.

In college basketball, the mighty University of Kentucky have five games left in the season in their historic effort to become the first undefeated national champion since Indiana in 1976.  It promises to be a magnificent March Madness if we survive the Arctic deep freeze.

More later...

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