Thursday, October 09, 2008
Polling the Polls - Too Close to Call
As we have been warning for the past year, the polls in the presidential race are wrong and the latest round of poll releases demonstrates just how wrong they are. Five major tracking polls have been released in the past 24 hours and the difference is night and day. Each day of the campaign has seen major shifts but the most important factor is that Real Politics shows that McCain-Palin has been slowly and surely closing the gap.
Right now Gallup shows Obama ahead by 11 counting all registered voters and leaners, the Rasmussen poll of likely and leaning voters shows Obama ahead by 6, the Reuters/Zogby poll of likely voters shows Obama ahead by 2, while the Battleground poll shows Obama ahead by 4 and the Hotline poll shows Obama ahead by 1. Realclearpolitics.com, which compiles and averages all polls, show the Obama lead has shrunk to just 3, well within the margin of error.
By now there should be about 10% undecided and the Zogby poll shows 8% while Gallup shows 7%. With about 4 weeks left anyone can win the election so hold on to your hats. There is only one poll that really counts, election day!