If you want to know what the stock market is going to do in reaction to the midterm elections, here is a bit of inside information. The greater the victory by the Republicans the greater the economy and stock market will improve. So if you want to speed up the economic recovery, vote Republican.
In most off year elections the minority party wins the most seats and the stock market always gains more on average after a midterm election than after a presidential election. Obama should know, he got elected and the stock market promptly crashed.
The market has been slowly trending up this year as the Republican victory got nearer. The larger the GOP victory tomorrow, the stronger the market will react for the better.
Part is a result of the anti-business attitude of our young president, part is a result of the social leaning agenda of Obama and the Democrats, part is because of the record setting deficit spending and record increase in the national debt under Obama, and part is the historical pattern of minority success in midterm elections.
Make no mistake, the Republicans are going to win and win big.
According to Brian Gendreau, market strategist for Financial Network, in the period from 1922 to 2006, the average gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the 90 trading days following midterm elections (roughly November until mid-March) was 8.5%, according to a new study he authored.
That's almost 5% higher than the Dow's gains in presidential election years.
During the midterm elections the only time the ruling party gained seats in both the House of Representatives and Senate was in the 2002 elections, and the market fell afterward - making it the only time since 1942 that the Dow has fallen after a midterm election.
In the days before midterms, the market generally tends to perform well, just as it has this year.
"The market starts to go up beforehand and it just doesn't stop," said Gendreau.
While past performance is no indication of future success, consider this: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has posted gains for every 200-trading day period following mid-term congressional elections since 1942. Stocks surge, on average, by a whopping 18.3% in those 200 days, according to the Leuthold Group, a Minneapolis-based investment-research firm.
The S&P index chalked up its biggest 200-day gain, 30.5%, in 1942, as the tide began to turn in World War II. The smallest gain, 3.9%, came in 1946, as investors worried that the economy would sink into another depression.
If you listened to mainstream media you would think Sarah Palin is the pariah of the midterm elections and that the Tea Party is almost non-existent. Yet when Sarah has endorsed and campaigned for a candidate her picks just keep winning, especially female candidates. The political pundits seem to be surprised to learn the people out on Main Street America believe no Washington politician is a good politician. They even seem surprised that Palin will endorse candidates though her pick is often at odds with the Republican party favorite.
It is almost as if the media and Obama believe the sun rises and sets on our two political parties, though polls show both have no credibility to the voters. Time and again in this election cycle the people have gone against one or both parties to elect or nominate underdogs, in Massachusetts, New Jersey, Virginia, South Carolina, and other races. Still the Washington political elite don't get it.
People are fed up with politicians, with spending, with deficits, with campaign funds, with conflicts of interest, with Obama blaming Bush for everything, and with all the self-serving actions being taken in Congress. Of course the experts can spin away all the bad news as long as the people are not paying attention, but when they do look out!
That is where Obama, the Obama gang from Chicago, the Washington politicians, the political party machines and the special interests who control our nation's capitol are failing to hear the people. And that is where Sarah Palin has staked her claim as a spokesperson for the disenfranchised and silent majority of Americans.
If Palin was insignificant on the national political scene as Obama, the Democrats and the liberal media try to prove, why do they spend more time commenting about or covering Sarah than any other politician except Obama? She isn't even holding office or a party leadership position.
Not a day goes by that the liberal media doesn't try to make Palin look bad going so far as to induce her son-in-law to tell lies about the Palin family which he recently admitted. Whenever any poll that shows Palin in a negative light comes out it is shouted from the media castles in NYC to Washington, DC to further prove she is not a legitimate factor in this election year.
To her credit, Sarah Palin, a journalism graduate from college, knows better than to debate the politicians in our capitol. She takes her message straight to the people on Main Street America and in spite of what the media and Obama gang say, Obama is still wailin' about Palin.
While the liberals continue to downplay her successes, undermine her credibility and dismiss her influence, Sarah continues to raise more money than any other non-office holder in either party, help more candidates than Obama, and endear herself to middle America stronger by the day.
You never hear the media, Democrats or Obama administration talk about anything good Palin has done or said, even though Obama himself, a serious Palin basher, has stolen some of her proposals and policies for implementation. But the real truth is in the polling numbers from Main Street America.
Right now in national polls Palin and Obama have almost identical poll numbers. Obama's favorable rating has slipped 19 percentage points in the past year while Palin's have consistently gone up. Most recent polls show Obama with a 43-44% favorable rating while VP Biden has a 26% favorable rating. Sarah Palin has a 40-41% favorable rating as a political figure and she doesn't even hold a political office and is not running for anything right now.
On the negative side Obama and Biden have 48% disapproval, their highest negative numbers since being elected. Palin has about 50-51% negative which means Obama, Biden and Palin all are within the margin of error for the polls so they are virtually tied.
What has Obama wailin' about Palin is the public opinion on the issues and policies. Palin opposes Obama on the Arizona Immigration law and the federal efforts to block enforcement of the law. Most recent national polls show 61% of the public support Arizona's law while 56% of the public oppose Obama's efforts to block the law. Palin stands with Main Street America, Obama does not.
In issue after issue Palin agrees with the national mood of the electorate whether it is offshore oil drilling, a drilling moratorium, opposition to bailouts and stimulus, balancing the national budget, eliminating the national debt, creating a sensible comprehensive energy policy, even health care reform, yet the media tries to paint her as far outside the mainstream of American politics. They are fools.
Sarah Palin knows the pulse of America and is the only person fighting for the people against the political establishment and media manipulators. She could care less what Obama and his minions have to say because they are totally disconnected from the American public. There is no way intellectual and academic elitists like Obama will ever understand the electorate because they will always believe they know what is best for the people and the people are not smart enough to figure things out for themselves.
Arrogance and ego are the biggest sins a politician can commit and Obama has demonstrated over and over these are lessons he does not understand. Palin, who worked her way up from local government to state government as a chief executive and held her own in the national spotlight, has now demonstrated it is she, not Obama, who speak for the people.
Her self-deprecating sense of humor, being able to laugh at herself and all the vicious rumors, has won over more and more people along the way. She is a mother, has a son who served in Iraq, is a patriot yet defends our right to bear arms, hunt and fish, and exercise our Constitutional freedoms. She has a handicapped child, has faced the same problems as us as a parent, and lived under the floodlights of the national media in a fish bowl with no complaints.
As liberals thought she was dead and buried over and over again Palin ignored them and put herself in the national spotlight by championing Main Street America. While Obama relies on Wall Street and a host of special interests to keep the campaign cash flowing Palin is raising far more money from the people to stop the influence of Wall Street and special interests who are being protected by Obama and Congress.
Obama was obsessed with the spotlight given to Palin during the presidential campaign spending as much time and attention running against her as he spent against his opponent McCain. Since being elected and since she resigned as governor he continues to be obsessed with Palin. His obsession has cost him nearly a quarter of his personal popularity while at the same time Palin has gained more than a quarter in popularity in spite of the attacks by the liberal media and Obama gang.
With four months until the election, she has chalked up victory after victory while Obama has lost the major races noted previously and is stunned that many Democrats don't even want him to campaign in their states. Oh yes, Obama's got the Wailin' Palin Blues and it may be time to bring the song back as written and performed by the John Galt Band and update it for the new election cycle. It goes something like this:
As if fading polls and more endangered candidates along with the economy in a wobbling mode, two wars building up the debt, a BP oil spill that may impact the USA for years to come, and a recent attack by the president on the State of Arizona new immigration law, what more could go wrong for Obama?
How about Sarah Palin coming on hard and strong leading her endorsed candidates to stunning surges in the polls? Now Palin has her own video telling her own story about the Momma Grizzlies and how women are needed in government.
Double click on the video to get full screen.
Even the liberal media are nervous about the power of her new video and are not about to take the usual cheap shots at Palin. After all this time they finally see her as a viable political force on the American scene, something voters knew long ago.
Watch for Palin to become more and more of a force in politics and for less and less nasty stories and smear campaigns against her. Palin has tapped into the concerns of disenfranchised voters and struck a nerve. Now she will really be heard.
