Showing posts with label election victory prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election victory prediction. Show all posts

Thursday, January 04, 2018

Huffington Post article predicts Trump election October 19, 2016, three weeks before election day.

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HuffPost Contributor predicts Trump election 21 days before history was made while HuffPost predicts 98% chance of Hillary victory.

The following article appeared in the Huffington Post from a Contributor, myself, which positioned the HuffPost to be right about the shocking, stunning and demoralizing 2016 election result.  At the same time a Trump election was predicted, the HuffPost was running the first of two polling articles claiming after "9.8 million computer simulations" Hillary Clinton had a 98% chance of winning.  The second time this claim of a Hillary victory was posted was on November 8, election day, in the HuffPost.

Here is what appeared in the Huffington Post October 19, 2016, three weeks before the electrifying Trump victory, a series of News Bulletins for the upcoming election night coverage.




Jim Putnam, Contributor
Publisher Coltons Point Times

Into the Future - Presidential Election Results November 8 and 9, 2016
10/19/2016 05:49 pm ET
·          
Into the Future - Presidential Election Results November 8 and 9, 2016
News Bulletin!
Dateline: Washington, D.C.
November 8, 2016 - 10:00 pm EST
Polls Close in East - Hillary Declared Winner
The polls just closed in the East while remaining open in the Midwest and West, but the mainstream media has already declared Hillary Clinton the 45th and first female in our nation’s history President.
Based on the results of Exit Polls throughout the country, most media declared Hillary the decisive winner. The Exit Polls are interviews with actual voters leaving the voting booths.
Unlike other political polls of which there are many, only one presidential Exit Poll exists and is taken. Since the poll is owned by a coalition of the major television networks, and it is not released in it’s entirety to the public, there is no way to validate or verify the results.
In spite of the tremendous media bias against Donald Trump and media devotion to Hillary Clinton, it still seems a bit odd the networks declared her the winner with just below 5% of the national vote cast and counted.
Over 50% of the public still has time to get out and vote. One might suspect there is media collusion in trying to discourage possible Trump supporters in these states to give up and not vote for Trump.
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News Bulletin!
Dateline: Washington, D.C.
November 9, 2016 - 1:00 am EST
Historic Hillary Victory a Tidal Wave claim Pundits
The polls have now closed in the continental United States as the nation and world await the results of the presidential election. So far just 22% of the popular vote has been reported.
Early absentee voting tallies indicate a record number of Americans cast their ballots before election day. Political pundits say it is another great sign for a Hillary landslide. “Banner headlines” in the major newspapers early editions, along with a never ending stream of “braking news” bulletins on television networks rejoice in the Clinton victory over Donald Trump, as projected by the media.
No results are official until certified by the election boards in each state. None have been certified yet and the national tracking map indicates no electoral votes have been awarded.
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News Bulletin!
Dateline: Washington, D.C.
November 9, 2016 - 5:00 am EST
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
The national media continues to tout the Exit Polls and a Hillary landslide but the release of actual vote totals is at an excruciatingly slow pace by the states.
Those votes reported to the media indicate a much closer race than the Exit Poll blowout projection. No pattern is emerging in voting other than a near dead heat in national vote total while the seven key swing states remain too close to predict at this time.
Could it be the national news media Exit Poll is wrong? Early indications suggest if the TV networks actually reported the results received in Exit interviews, the voters were giving misleading answers to the media.
Perhaps voters believe they have a right to keep silent when it comes to elections, an exercise of their right to privacy.
At the same time, there are reports of much higher new voter totals than expected, and the turnout among Independents and Republicans is up significantly.
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News Bulletin!
Dateline: Washington, D.C.
November 9, 2016 - 10:00 am EST
Clinton Landslide fails to Materialize - Exit Polls Wrong - but How Wrong?
A haunting silence has overcome the nation as Americans wake up and go to work expecting to hear from our new President Hillary Clinton. Instead, there is a heightened sense of anxiety on the part of those prematurely declaring Clinton the victor.
After late night calls for a Clinton victory celebration, her failure to pull away in the electoral count has stunned and silenced her Establishment friends.
While all seven key swing states hang perilously in the balance, the leader in popular votes swings wildly from Clinton to Trump and back like a pendulum on steroids.
Perhaps the Populist Revolution did not fade away as predicted by the Establishment and their news media. Maybe the election has nothing to do with Donald Trump but is a referendum on Clinton and the Establishment.
If proven true, it will be the greatest upset in election history far surpassing the Truman - Dewey race in 1948.
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News Bulletin!
Dateline: Washington, D.C.
November 9, 2016 - 6:00 pm EST
Populist Momentum Carries Trump to 270 electoral votes as America’s Version of the UK Brexit Vote Stuns the World

Here are stories from the Huffington Post, Reuters, nd Time Magazine at the same time covering the election status. 

FORECAST
PRESIDENT

By Natalie Jackson and Adam Hooper
Additional design by Alissa Scheller
PUBLISHED MONDAY, OCT. 3, 2016 12:56 P.M. EDT
UPDATED TUESDAY, NOV. 8, 2016, 12:43 A.M. EST

CLINTON  98.0%
TRUMP  1.7%

In the event of a tie, the newly elected House of Representatives will elect the president, and the newly elected Senate will elect the vice president.

Possible Electoral Vote Counts
When you vote, you don’t elect the president: You tell your state’s electoral-college electors how to vote. In most states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion. If 51 percent of voters in California choose Hillary Clinton, all 55 of California’s electors will vote for Clinton — and none will vote for Donald Trump.

(Historically, a few so-called faithless electors have voted against popular opinion. They never changed the outcome of an election, so we don’t model them.)
We simulated a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using our state-by-state averages. In 9.8 million simulations, Hillary Clinton ended up with at least 270 electoral votes. Therefore, we say Clinton has a 98.0 percent chance of becoming president.


Election Day
November 8, 2016
11/08/2016 08:22 am ET

HUFFPOLLSTER: It’s Finally Election Day, And Things Look Good For Democrats

Go vote, and then read on for poll-based projections and a look back at 2016.
·          
HuffPost’s poll-based forecasts give Hillary Clinton the win and the Democrats a narrow Senate majority. Many Americans are going to be unhappy regardless of the outcome. And we take a look back at the campaign. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, November 8, 2016.
POLL-BASED PROJECTIONS GIVE CLINTON THE WIN - HuffPollster: “The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory. Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215. For all of 2016’s craziness, that projection actually follows a fairly traditional electoral map…. Florida, Nevada and North Carolina have leaned toward Clinton in the polling averages. The forecast in recent weeks, along with the strength of early voting numbers, makes it seem very likely that these will stay with her….  [Ohio is] the closest [state], according to the HuffPost forecast model. Trump leads by just 1 point, and the polling trend has moved toward the GOP in the last few weeks. The HuffPost model gives Trump about a 70 percent chance of winning the state. In the event that Clinton’s ground game stimulates turnout and pulls Ohio in her direction ― which is not out of the question ― she’ll get 341 electoral votes.” [HuffPost]   

OCTOBER 15, 2016 / 1:55 PM
Clinton heavily favored to win Electoral College: poll
·          
NEW YORK (Reuters) - After a brutal week for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton maintained a substantial projected advantage in the race to win the Electoral College and claim the U.S. presidency, according to the latest results from the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project released on Saturday.
If the election were held this week, the project estimates that Clinton’s odds of securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency at more than 95 percent, and by a margin of 118 Electoral College votes. It is the second week in a row that the project has estimated her odds so high.

Donald Trump Continues to Dip in Polls as Hillary Clinton Firms Her Lead
October 16, 2016
Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump by 11 points, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which comes a little more than three weeks before the presidential election.

Conducted after the second presidential debate, the NBC News/WSJ poll finds Clinton leading Trump among likely voters 48% to 37%. Trump’s support in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll remained roughly the same since controversy exploded over Trump’s treatment of women. The two candidates remain close in that poll, with Clinton polling at 47% to Trump’s 43% because of partisan preferences.