HuffPost Contributor predicts Trump election 21 days before history was made while HuffPost predicts 98% chance of Hillary victory.
The following article appeared in the Huffington Post from a Contributor, myself, which positioned the HuffPost to be right about the shocking, stunning and demoralizing 2016 election result. At the same time a Trump election was predicted, the HuffPost was running the first of two polling articles claiming after "9.8 million computer simulations" Hillary Clinton had a 98% chance of winning. The second time this claim of a Hillary victory was posted was on November 8, election day, in the HuffPost.
Here is what appeared in the Huffington Post October 19, 2016, three weeks before the electrifying Trump victory, a series of News Bulletins for the upcoming election night coverage.
Jim Putnam, Contributor
Publisher Coltons Point Times
Into the Future - Presidential Election Results
November 8 and 9, 2016
10/19/2016 05:49 pm ET
·
Into the Future -
Presidential Election Results November 8 and 9, 2016
News Bulletin!
Dateline:
Washington, D.C.
November 8, 2016
- 10:00 pm EST
Polls Close in
East - Hillary Declared Winner
The polls just
closed in the East while remaining open in the Midwest and West, but the
mainstream media has already declared Hillary Clinton the 45th and first female
in our nation’s history President.
Based on the
results of Exit Polls throughout the country, most media declared Hillary the
decisive winner. The Exit Polls are interviews with actual voters leaving the
voting booths.
Unlike other
political polls of which there are many, only one presidential Exit Poll exists
and is taken. Since the poll is owned by a coalition of the major television
networks, and it is not released in it’s entirety to the public, there is no
way to validate or verify the results.
In spite of the
tremendous media bias against Donald Trump and media devotion to Hillary
Clinton, it still seems a bit odd the networks declared her the winner with
just below 5% of the national vote cast and counted.
Over 50% of the
public still has time to get out and vote. One might suspect there is media
collusion in trying to discourage possible Trump supporters in these states to
give up and not vote for Trump.
———————————————
News Bulletin!
Dateline:
Washington, D.C.
November 9, 2016
- 1:00 am EST
Historic Hillary
Victory a Tidal Wave claim Pundits
The polls have
now closed in the continental United States as the nation and world await the
results of the presidential election. So far just 22% of the popular vote has
been reported.
Early absentee
voting tallies indicate a record number of Americans cast their ballots before
election day. Political pundits say it is another great sign for a Hillary
landslide. “Banner headlines” in the major newspapers early editions, along
with a never ending stream of “braking news” bulletins on television networks
rejoice in the Clinton victory over Donald Trump, as projected by the media.
No results are
official until certified by the election boards in each state. None have been
certified yet and the national tracking map indicates no electoral votes have
been awarded.
————————————————
News Bulletin!
Dateline:
Washington, D.C.
November 9, 2016
- 5:00 am EST
The national
media continues to tout the Exit Polls and a Hillary landslide but the release
of actual vote totals is at an excruciatingly slow pace by the states.
Those votes
reported to the media indicate a much closer race than the Exit Poll blowout
projection. No pattern is emerging in voting other than a near dead heat in
national vote total while the seven key swing states remain too close to
predict at this time.
Could it be the
national news media Exit Poll is wrong? Early indications suggest if the TV
networks actually reported the results received in Exit interviews, the voters
were giving misleading answers to the media.
Perhaps voters
believe they have a right to keep silent when it comes to elections, an
exercise of their right to privacy.
At the same time,
there are reports of much higher new voter totals than expected, and the
turnout among Independents and Republicans is up significantly.
————————————————
News Bulletin!
Dateline:
Washington, D.C.
November 9, 2016
- 10:00 am EST
Clinton Landslide
fails to Materialize - Exit Polls Wrong - but How Wrong?
A haunting
silence has overcome the nation as Americans wake up and go to work expecting
to hear from our new President Hillary Clinton. Instead, there is a heightened
sense of anxiety on the part of those prematurely declaring Clinton the victor.
After late night
calls for a Clinton victory celebration, her failure to pull away in the
electoral count has stunned and silenced her Establishment friends.
While all seven
key swing states hang perilously in the balance, the leader in popular votes
swings wildly from Clinton to Trump and back like a pendulum on steroids.
Perhaps the
Populist Revolution did not fade away as predicted by the Establishment and
their news media. Maybe the election has nothing to do with Donald Trump but is
a referendum on Clinton and the Establishment.
If proven true,
it will be the greatest upset in election history far surpassing the Truman -
Dewey race in 1948.
—————————————-
News Bulletin!
Dateline:
Washington, D.C.
November 9, 2016
- 6:00 pm EST
Populist Momentum
Carries Trump to 270 electoral votes as America’s Version of the UK Brexit Vote
Stuns the World
FORECAST
PRESIDENT
By Natalie Jackson and Adam Hooper
Additional design by Alissa Scheller
Additional design by Alissa Scheller
PUBLISHED MONDAY, OCT. 3, 2016 12:56 P.M. EDT
UPDATED TUESDAY, NOV. 8, 2016, 12:43 A.M. EST
CLINTON 98.0%
TRUMP 1.7%
In
the event of a tie, the newly elected House of Representatives will elect the
president, and the newly elected Senate will elect the vice president.
Possible Electoral Vote Counts
When you vote, you don’t elect the president: You tell your
state’s electoral-college electors how to vote. In most
states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion. If 51 percent of
voters in California choose Hillary Clinton, all 55 of California’s electors
will vote for Clinton — and none will vote for Donald Trump.
(Historically, a few so-called faithless
electors have voted against popular opinion. They never changed
the outcome of an election, so we don’t model them.)
We simulated a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using our state-by-state averages. In 9.8
million simulations, Hillary Clinton ended up with at least 270
electoral votes. Therefore, we say Clinton has a 98.0 percent chance
of becoming president.
Election Day
November
8, 2016
11/08/2016 08:22 am ET
HUFFPOLLSTER: It’s Finally Election Day, And Things Look Good For
Democrats
Go
vote, and then read on for poll-based projections and a look back at 2016.
·
HuffPost’s poll-based
forecasts give Hillary Clinton the win and the Democrats a narrow Senate
majority. Many Americans are going to be unhappy regardless of the outcome. And
we take a look back at the campaign. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, November
8, 2016.
POLL-BASED PROJECTIONS
GIVE CLINTON THE WIN - HuffPollster: “The HuffPost
presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a
98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has
essentially no path to an Electoral College victory. Clinton’s win will
be substantial, but
not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323
electoral votes to Trump’s 215. For all of 2016’s craziness, that
projection actually follows a fairly traditional electoral map…. Florida,
Nevada and North Carolina have leaned toward Clinton in the polling averages.
The forecast in recent weeks, along with the strength of early voting numbers,
makes it seem very likely that these will stay with her…. [Ohio is] the
closest [state], according to the HuffPost forecast model. Trump leads by just
1 point, and the polling trend has moved toward the GOP in the last few weeks.
The HuffPost model gives Trump about a 70 percent chance of winning the state.
In the event that Clinton’s ground game stimulates turnout and pulls Ohio in
her direction ― which is not out of the question ― she’ll get 341 electoral
votes.” [HuffPost]
OCTOBER 15, 2016 / 1:55 PM
Clinton heavily
favored to win Electoral College: poll
·
NEW YORK (Reuters) - After a brutal week
for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton
maintained a substantial projected advantage in the race to win the Electoral
College and claim the U.S. presidency, according to the latest results from the
Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project released on Saturday.
If the election were
held this week, the project estimates that Clinton’s odds of securing the 270
Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency at more than 95 percent,
and by a margin of 118 Electoral College votes. It is the second week in a row that
the project has estimated her odds so high.
Donald Trump Continues to Dip in Polls as Hillary Clinton Firms Her
Lead
October 16, 2016
Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump by 11 points,
according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which comes a little
more than three weeks before the presidential election.
Conducted after the second presidential debate, the NBC News/WSJ poll finds
Clinton leading Trump among likely voters 48% to 37%. Trump’s support in the
latest ABC News/Washington Post poll
remained roughly the same since controversy exploded over Trump’s treatment of
women. The two candidates remain close in that poll, with Clinton polling at
47% to Trump’s 43% because of partisan preferences.
