Kentucky Derby Winner Prediction - Will CPT 2017 Winning Streak Reach Five in a Row?

.

After Picking Four Straight Thoroughbred Stakes Winners This Year...

It is time for the 143rd Run for the Roses, the Kentucky Derby, Saturday, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.  Not only is this the greatest two minutes in sports for the year, but the Derby is the longest continuous held sporting event in the United States.

The Kentucky Derby is the hardest race to handicap because of the large field of 20 horses and this year is no exception as there is no clear favorite.  It is further complicated by the fact few of the top horses ran against each other in the various Derby preps.

This year might just be more special because the Coltons Point Times (CPT) has predicted the winners of four straight major thoroughbred stakes races this year from around the world.  We accurately picked winners of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational, the Dubai World Cup, the Santa Anita Derby, and the Bluegrass Stakes.

In the Pegasus it was Arrogate overwhelming the early favorite California Chrome with Shaman Ghost and Neolithic second and third.  The first three were picked by the CPT to be in the money.  In the Dubai Arrogate again won after a near disastrous break and stumble at the beginning.

On the West Coast Gormley was the pick for the Santa Anita, third in the odds for the race, who won at 6-1.  Then there was the Bluegrass Stakes in which the Coltons Point Times picked Irap to win, at a staggering 31-1 odds.

If you add in the prediction of a Trump victory in the Presidential race on October 18, 2016, also posted in the Huffington Post, on a day when Trump was 14% behind in the polls, this could be the sixth straight accurate prediction.

By the way, the Trump prediction was 22 days before the election and the CPT might be the only newspaper to predict Trump the winner.

Listen to the drum roll and here is the prediction and our effort to achieve a streak of picking five straight major thoroughbred stakes winners for the year.

The winner of the 143rd Kentucky Derby will be...Classic Empire

Second place will be...Always Dreaming   

Third place will be...Irap

Fourth Place...Gormley

As for the potential for a Triple Crown winner in 2017, our prediction is ...No winner

Good luck and keep watching for further predictions of major events by the CPT.

.

Kentucky Derby 2017 post position and odds

.

Kentucky Derby 2017

post position and odds

1. Lookin At Lee (20-1)

2. Thunder Snow (20-1)

3. Fast And Accurate (50-1)

4. Untrapped (30-1)

5. Always Dreaming (5-1)

6. State of Honor (30-1)

7. Girvin (15-1)

8. Hence (15-1)

9. Irap (20-1)

10. Gunnevera (15-1)

11. Battle Of Midway (30-1)

12. Sonneteer (50-1)

13. J Boys Echo (20-1)

14. Classic Empire (4-1)

15. McCraken (5-1)

16. Tapwrit (20-1)

17. Irish War Cry (6-1)

18. Gormley (15-1)

19. Practical Joke (20-1)

20. Patch (30-1)

Kentucky Derby draw set;

favorites get good gate positions

 Jay Busbee,The Turnstile 2 hours 16 minutes ago 

Royal Moe and Master Plan are also eligible to race if one of the horses above is unable to compete.

This year’s Derby field is wide open, in part because four-time Derby winner Bob Baffert has not entered a horse in this year’s race. Classic Empire leads betting odds at 4-1, with McCraken at 5-1 and Irish War Cry following at 6-1. No other horses have better than 10-1 odds.

The assumption that the inside stall is the best position, given that it’s the shortest distance around the track, isn’t actually the case. With 20 horses in the field, the inside horses are liable to get bounced and edged out as the pack jockeys for position heading into the first turn. Too far outside, and the horse has to cover too much ground in the first two turns to get on the inside track.

Some trainers prefer gate 14 (the final stall on the main gate) or 15 (the first stall on the auxiliary gate) because those two give a bit of extra room at the start. Last year’s winner Nyquist came from gate 13, while Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh began from gate 15.

Some other positioning-by-the-numbers tidbits, courtesy of America’s Best Racing:

• No horse has ever won from gate 17. Ever.

• No horse starting from gate 1 has even placed in the top three since 1988.

• The average size of the field since 2000 is 18.9 horses, with no race having fewer than 16 horses.

• The gates with the most victories all time are gates 5 and 10, with 9 Derby wins apiece.

Place your bets accordingly.

The Kentucky Derby, a 1 1/4-mile race for three-year-old horses, takes place this Saturday, May 6. Post time is at 6:34 p.m. ET, and NBC Sports’ coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET.
____ Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports and the author of EARNHARDT 

UK Countdown to Coronation - Can Kentucky Wildcats make History?

.

America's only Real Reality Show

With the announcement of the NCAA March Madness brackets today America will once again enter the era of peace brought about when college hoops overwhelm political procrastination and all the other nonsense that dominates the nightly news.

Finally, television will be filled with real reality TV, not the manufactured BS fed to us by idiotic television producers, writers, studios, and sponsors.  What you see is what really happened from the tears to the cheers, the Cinderella stories to the last second upsets.  You will see power and prayers compete for dominance as 67 teams set out to derail the mighty Kentucky Wildcats.

UK, America's most dominant and legendary basketball citadel will again make a run for the national championship and along the way will be shattering NCAA records every step.  In fact, this is one year when Kentucky, who many people love to hate, may just win over a few million fans to the legacy of Lexington hoops.

UK secret weapon, Ashley Judd

I am a devoted Wildcat fan, but the Arizona variety not Kentucky.  You see, I played basketball for the University of Arizona of the PAC 12 back when UCLA, our main opponent, was winning national championships every year.  It was not until much later we discovered boosters were paying some of the UCLA players a salary, illegal of course, during that incredible John Wooden run.

For those of you too young to appreciate history, Wooden, the Wizard of Westwood, won ten national championships in 12 years including seven in a row, feats that will never happen again.  Between 1964 and 1975, UCLA won the ten national basketball championships and won again in 1995 for a total of eleven.  Kentucky has won eight.  However, UK wins spanned from 1948 until 2012, and most likely number 11 will come in 2015, spanning 67 years.  Overall Kentucky has the most wins of all schools in history with 2,208.

There are three teams in the top five nicknamed the Wildcats, Kentucky, Arizona, and Villanova.  If Kentucky and Arizona keep winning, they will meet in the final four semi-finals.  All three of these Wildcats could be in the final four, something that has never happened before.  Of course the University of Arizona would have to beat number one seeded Wisconsin to get to the final four.

UK Coach Calipari

 The road to the championship begins Tuesday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17, and ends the day after Easter, April 6, at Indianapolis.  The last team to have a perfect record and win the championship was Indiana in 1976 when they finished 32-0.  UK is already undefeated and 34-0 with six games to win to be champion.  If they do win, it will shatter the 32 game unbeaten- record for the year and UK would be 40-0.

Stay tuned for some of the top games in the early rounds.

Did I mention the only national championship won by Arizona was in 1997 and they beat, guess who, Kentucky.  Arizona prevented UK from winning three in a row.

Goooooo Cats or Kats.

.       

It's Friday - No Politics - No Problems

.

It's Friday, February 10 in Southern Maryland.  The weather has now become so confused that when Punxsutawney Phil, you all know him, the famous Groundhog Day prognosticator who checks his shadow to see when winter will be over.

According to the tradition, if Phil sees his shadow and returns to his hole, he has predicted six more weeks of winter-like weather. If Phil does not see his shadow, he has predicted an "early spring."

The date of Phil's prognostication is known as Groundhog Day in the United States and Canada. He is considered to be the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. During the rest of the year, Phil lives in the town library with his "wife" Phyllis.

Did you know the first official Groundhog Day was February 2, 1887 , at Gobbler's Knob, which was about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, but there is reference that the first Groundhog Day was in 1841.

Who cares?  So when Phil stepped out of his condo February 2, this year's Groundhog Day, what did he see?  I think he got a sunburn.  Anyway, he's only been accurate 39% of the time over the past 125 or 170 years.

Better than our weatherman but no where near the accuracy of my Irish Grandfather, God rest his mischievous soul, who could feel the weather in his bones.

This is supposed to be the doldrums of winter yet the Crocus are popping out all over.  It is the Dead Zone of the primary campaign with only one debate the entire month after debates every other day for the past year.

We need a break from politics, from Obama, from Democrats, from Republicans and from the media.  So I thought about it and realized at this moment we are only 85 days, 8 hours and 17 minutes from the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Now that coincidence should not go unnoticed.

So it's time for my Derby preview thus turning our attention from the weird weather and weirder political and international events.  Forget about the End Times, the Kentucky Derby is well before December 21, 2012 (the end of the Mayan calendar).

Visualize with me tens of thousands of beautiful Southern Belles in these most extraordinary hats.

Nearly 200,000 people fill the enchanted Twin Spires of Churchill Downs.

Mint Juleps rule the day, the Kentucky Blue Blood cocktail invented to sell bourbon to the sophisticated socialites.

And then there are the thundering herd of million dollar horses pounding around the final turn and heading for the stretch run of the fastest two minutes in sports.

Oh Lordly what a sight as these fire-breathing behemoths remind us of the greatest of Greek Mythology, the Immortal Horses of the gods. The majority of these divine steeds were offspring of the four Wind-Gods who themselves were said to draw the chariot of Zeus.

It is only about three months before the draw for the post positions for Derby horses so I am going to share with you the Churchill Downs tracking of horses most likely to get into the Derby.

Before that I must share my experience with pari-mutuel betting, picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby and next superstar of the h0rse racing world.

You see, I'm not a gambling man in the sense of betting on things.  I already take enough foolish risk with the things I do in my life.  Still, my memory of the Kentucky Derby seems to predate even the World Series.

There was the end of World War II, then the mighty Citation winning the triple crown in 1948, the fourth time in the 1940's there was a triple crown champion.  It would be the last triple crown champion for 25 long years.

Then along came Secretariat in 1973, Seattle Slew in 1977 and Affirmed in 1978, three triple crown champions in five years, and no winners since 1978.  Winning the triple crown is among the most difficult achievements in all of sports.

So I grew up trying to pick the winner of the Derby for family bragging rights.  Later in life I would place a single bet on the Derby every year and more often than not I picked the winner.

When I worked for the governor of New Jersey one of my assignments was to be chief of staff for a cabinet commissioner who loved the challenge of handicapping the horses.  He was pretty good at it and just recently was appointed to the Board of Directors at Churchill Downs, home of the Kentucky Derby.

I have family in the Lexington, Kentucky area and some are involved and all follow the Kentucky thoroughbred industry and Kentucky Derby.  One is involved in thoroughbred auctions and the millions of millions of dollars involved in race horses.  Others, like my nieces and nephews, can be found in a box on Derby Day plastered on Mint Juleps hidden somewhere under the outrageous hats.  Just kidding.

So this last year when I was travelling to Lexington for treatment for this and that (see other stories on my tragic medical odyssey), my younger brother, we shall call him Bosco in order to hide his identity and protect his right to privacy, asked if I knew the Breeders Cup races were at Churchill Downs.

Now the Breeder's cup races are a really big deal like the Derby.  You see, the top horses in all the world are invited to race each other to see who is horse of the year in the different categories.  Over two days about $35 million in purses are awarded and millions more in breeding rights can be earned.

Now my betting experience over the decades never got any farther than picking horses to win, place or show.  I just had no time for all the variations of betting like the following.

Straight bet or Single or Win bet. This is the simplest and most common bet. You bet on a winner at given odds. You collect only if your chosen horse is the first across the finish line.

• Place. A wager for place means you collect if your selected horse finishes either first or second.
• Show. The third horse across the finish line. A wager to show means you collect if your selected horse finishes either first, second or third.
• Combination Bet. Combinations cover from two to four horses to win in chosen order.
• Pick 3. This wager requires the player to pick the winners of three consecutive races. Some race tracks have a rolling pick 3 which is when the player must pick three races in a row and it continues for the next three races.
• Pick 6. This wager requires the player to select the winner of six consecutive races prior to the first race of the pick six. Some tracks place the pick six as the first six races, the middle six races, or the last six races. Many tracks have carry over pools for the pick six that can grow to as high as a million dollars.
• Quiniela or Reverse Forecast (UK). A bet placed on two horses to finish first and second in either order.
• Perfecta or Exacta or Straight Forecast (UK). A bet placed on two horses but they must cross the finish line in exact chosen order.
• Trifecta or Tricast or Treble Forecast (UK). A bet placed on three horses to cross the finish line in exact chosen order.
• Superfecta. A bet placed on four horses to cross the finish line in exact chosen order.
• Daily Double. Similar to an accumulator you select the winners of the first and second races on that day. You must place your bet before the start of the first race.
• Jackpot. Pick six winners in six races to share in a Jackpot prize. The rules and prizes will vary from race track to race track.
• Parlay or Accumulator. A multiple bet. A kind of 'let-it-ride' bet. Making simultaneous selections on two or more races with the intent of pressing the winnings of the first win on the bet of the following race selected, and so on. All the selections made must win for you to win the parlay. If a race is a tie, postponed or cancelled, your parlay is automatically reduced by one selection; a double parlay becomes a straight bet, a triple parlay becomes a double. A parlay bet can yield huge dividends if won.
• Future. A bet on a future event. At the start of each season, the sportsbooks give out odds for horses to win a certain event. The odds change as the race date approaches and in most cases get shorter, but if you win you get paid at the original odds that you took. This is possibly one of the most profitable bets if you have considerable knowledge of the race that you are betting on including the jockeys, and a good sense of judgement.
• Exotic Bets. Betting on unusual events. Some sports books post odds and take bets on a wide variety of other sports related events and activities. A few others will take bets on just about anything you can think of.
• Proposition Bet or Prop Bet. An offer of bets at odds and conditions chosen by the sportsbook, usually on 'Exotic' bets. 

But Bosco says he wants to bet on the Breeders Cup races.  The first day we won about four races but lost money on the rest.  The second day we won about the same and were slightly ahead when he said he wanted to bet a Superfecta in the last race.

I had no clue what he was talking about.  He said we had to pick the first four horses in order. I told him he was mad, we couldn't even pick the first horse most races, let alone four in a row.

So I asked if he ever won a Superfecta and he said no but his kids did.  He said the payouts were in the thousands of dollars.  I was intrigued and said why not, it's only a few bucks and one race.

We each picked out the horses we wanted and he went and bet the ticket.  The race, on the big screen TV, went off and I had the winner again, for about $5.  It was the last I thought about it until the next afternoon.

I heard the Superfecta paid around $1,500 a ticket.  It meant nothing to me but I still pulled out our Superfacta ticket to check the horses.  To my complete and utter astonishment our ticket accurately picked the first four horses in order.

So I grabbed my brother and said how much did he bet on the Superfecta.  Since I would bet between $5 and $50 on a horse my brain was already multiplying the massive winnings. Let's see, 5 times 1500 is $7500 and 50 times 1500 is a staggering $75,000.

So Bosco, how much did you bet! I shouted.  He gave me that dumb Cheshire Cat look from Wonderland as if I should know better than to ask.  Then he whispered something.

What! I demanded.  Whatever he mumbled, it didn't register on my brain or my brain refused to let it register.  Then I heard the worst words I had heard in who knows how long.  "Ten cents!".

That did not even compute.  What ten cents?  He said he bet ten cents per horse, not $1, $5 or $50.

Somehow his math indicated we might have won our first Superfecta and in the featured race of the breeders Cup, no less.  But his fractional betting left us with about 1 /1000 of what we were supposed to make. because he bet ten cents rather than more.

I asked if there was any reason he decided to bet pennies instead of dollars and he said he'd never won a Superfecta and never expected to win so he bet pennies instead of dollars.

So now my brother and I have finally won a Superfecta.  Yes, we nailed them from first to fourth place.  We even had the foresight to bet the race.  But don't ever have your slightly crazy brother place the bet without checking the tickets or you may wind up winning parking money rather than $75,000.

As for me, I'm back to sticking with picking just the winner.  So here are the horses that Churchill Downs says are qualified for the Derby so far.  More will be added later as other three year olds win the Derby prep races.

Algorithms

Owner: Starlight Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

 Alpha

Owner: Godolphin

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Creative Cause

Owner: Heinz Steinmann

Trainer: Mike Harrington

Jockey: Joel Rosario

 Dullahan

Owner: Donegal Racing

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

Gemologist

Owner: WinStar Farm LLC.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Hansen

Owner: Dr. Kendall Hansen & Sky Chai Racing

Trainer:Mike Maker

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

I'll Have Another

Owner: J. Paul Reddam

Trainer: Doug O'Neill

Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Liaison

Owner: Arnold Zetcher

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Sabercat

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

 Union Rags

Owner: Chadds Ford Stable

Trainer: Michael Matz

 

As for me, maybe I'll just have to go on a bike ride.  Might as well enjoy early spring.

.