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The following is a fun story by Ricky O'Donnell, in which you are given a choice if you don't want Kentucky winning your pool. Since I played basketball at Arizona, I support the choice. Go Cats, as in Arizona.
Pick Arizona, not Kentucky, to win your NCAA bracket
Everyone is going to tab Kentucky to win the NCAA Tournament. That's
no way to win a big office pool.
There's no wrong way to fill out an NCAA Tournament
bracket. You could pick the more ferocious mascot or choose teams by which
color you like better. You could flip a coin or ask your dog. You could go
straight chalk or randomly pick a bunch of upsets. At this point, any of these
methods is time-tested and Internet-approved.
Or you could be like everyone else and just choose Kentucky to win it all.
I did it, too. The Wildcats enter the tournament as the
heaviest favorite in recent memory. Listen to the way people talk about John
Calipari's team this year and you'd think the NCAA Tournament might be better
served with a Royal Rumble-style format, with Kentucky entering the ring first and needing
to crush all 67 of the other challengers to be crowned champions. Most people
still probably wouldn't pick against them.
You're going to hear one bit of analysis repeated ad
nauseam over the next few days: Kentucky
has absolutely been dominant, but it's not unbeatable. Ole Miss barely made the
field of 68, and the Rebels took Kentucky
to overtime. Texas A&M missed the field and it pushed the Wildcats to two
overtimes. Buffalo and Columbia
are just two of the teams that led Kentucky
at halftime. The Wildcats haven't been beaten, but that doesn't mean they're
perfect.
You know this. I know this. Everyone knows this. Chances
are, you're still picking Kentucky.
It's the best pick if you're trying to choose the team that's going to win the
NCAA Tournament. It might not be the best pick if you're trying to win your
office bracket pool.
If everyone picks Kentucky
and Kentucky
wins the championship, that means the person with the bracket that's most
accurate in the early rounds is going to take home the pool. The more people in
your pool, the harder this becomes.
But what if you don't take Kentucky? By choosing a different champion,
it's conceivable that the rest of your bracket could overcome a lot of
inaccurate picks to still win the pool as long as you hit on an overall winner
that no one else has.
When everyone zigs, you zag. It just makes sense. That's
why it might be smart to pick Arizona
to win the national championship this year.
Sean Miller's program was becoming West Coast Kentucky even before this season.
Calipari is the only coach recruiting better than Miller is right now. Arizona isn't as talented as Kentucky, but you can make the argument this
is the second most complete roster in the country. Miller also has them peaking
at the right time.
When the year started, Arizona
was only behind Kentucky
in the polls. They haven't done much to discredit that preseason opinion. Yes, Arizona lost to two teams with triple-digit KenPom
rankings next to their name in UNLV and Oregon State.
The fanbase was even more upset over a loss to Arizona State
in February. As the season has progressed, though, those bad losses are looking
more like outliers.
Realtime Bracket Game
Arizona
has run off 11 straight wins since losing to ASU. It tore through the Pac-12
Tournament, beating a quality Oregon
team by 28 points in the title game. In terms of size, athleticism, NBA-level
talent and an ability to play both ends of the floor, Arizona is about as
well-rounded as a major conference contender gets.
Arizona
finished with the No. 1 defense in the country last year as a team powered by
No. 4 overall draft pick Aaron Gordon and conference player of the year Nick
Johnson. Freshman Stanley Johnson and sophomore Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
replaced Johnson and Gordon in the starting lineup this year, and the defense
hasn't dropped off at all -- it actually got better. Arizona
finished No. 3 in defensive efficiency this season behind Virginia
and Kentucky,
but it allowed two fewer points per 100 possessions than it last season.
Miller uses the same packline defensive scheme that Tony
Bennett does at Virginia
with devastating effectiveness. The difference is at the other end of the
floor, where Arizona
has proven this roster to better equipped to score in bunches than the team
Miller had last season.
It starts with Johnson, a presumed top 10 draft pick in
June and an 18-year-old most often described as a "man-child." He's a
240-pound perimeter player who isn't just strong for a college kid -- he's
strong for an adult. It took Johnson some time to find his footing within Arizona's offense, but
he's been great lately, ascending all the way up to No. 2 in KenPom's player of
the year rankings.
Johnson leads the team in scoring at 14 points per game,
but Arizona
never really needs him in takeover mode. All five starters are capable of putting
the ball in the basket, and reserves Gabe York and Elliott Pitts come off the
bench to add shooting. When Arizona
goes small with Johnson at the four and York sliding next to starting point
guard T.J. McConnell, the added driving lanes and shooting makes the offense
even harder to defend.
Arizona
didn't get an easy draw. A potential Elite Eight rematch with Wisconsin might be the best game of the
tournament after the Badgers won by one in overtime a year ago. Baylor has the
athletes to matchup with Arizona
in a potential Sweet 16 game, too. And if Miller's team gets all the way to the
Final Four, Kentucky
should be waiting.
This season has felt like "Kentucky
vs. the field" from the start, and Kentucky
has justified it by handily winning every big game they've been in. It's not
really up for debate that Kentucky
is easy pick to win the NCAA Tournament. It just isn't an easy pick to help you
win your pool.
.
