Americans Abandon Voting - Less than 50% even participate - What democracy?

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What the news media and political parties are not telling us about our $5 billion election next year?

Our media and politicians tend to portray the United States of America as the ultimate democracy in the world and have consistently presented us as the defenders of freedom and democracy.

Well I must be confused because nowhere is the word "democracy" mentioned in the Declaration of Independence or the U.S. Constitution. How could that be?  Come to think of it, no where are the words capitalism or political party mentioned either.

Our government is supposed to be a democracy!

What exactly is the definition of a democracy?

The Cambridge Dictionary - Definition of "democracy"

The belief in freedom and equality between people, or a system of government based on this belief, in which power is held by elected representatives or directly by the people themselves.

A country in which power is held by elected representatives.

The Cambridge Dictionary - Definition of "republic"

A country that is governed by elected representatives and an elected leader.

So in a pure democracy power is held by the people directly, while a republic elects representatives to look out for the public interest.  Well let us look at that in light of the current state of American participation in the election of our representatives and leader.

Pythagorean Analysis of Voter reality in America

Total USA Population Today          325,332,205

Total Population under 18                 78,000,000

Total Population 18 and over          247,322,000

Total Eligible Voters 18+                 247,322,000

Total Registered Voters                    142,200,000

Percent                                                            57%

Total Voter Turnout 2012                121,757,000

Percent of Registered Voters                        85.6%

Percent of Eligible Voters                             49.2%

Total Obama Votes 2012                    62,615,406

Percent of Registered Voters                        44%

Percent of Eligible Voters                             25.3%                                                                        

Total Romney Voters 2012                 59,100,000

Percent of Registered Voters                       41.5%

Percent of Eligible Voters                             23.9%                                    

Total Eligible Voters not Voting       125,565,000

Percent of Eligible Voters                             50.8%                                                

Total Leaning Independent                          43%

Total Leaning Democrat                               30%

Total Leaning Republican                            26%                           

Nothing can be more dramatic than the realization that not only do we not have a democracy we do not even have a functioning republic in this the citadel of world democracy.  For perhaps the first time in our history, more Americans refused to participate in the voting process by refusing to register to vote, a consequence of freedom or common sense I suspect.

Our political system has failed to support our constitutional requirements for a republic.  Yet I do not hear a single candidate for either party raise the issue of the disconnect between our political parties and our constitutional rights.

Wake up America!  Better yet, wake up news media and politicians who are ignorant of history and fail to understand the meaning of a republic.  As a last, gasp effort to steer them in the right direction, here is an explanation of the American system of government as envisioned by our founding fathers back before the concentration of power in our news media and political parties.

Is the United States a democracy?  Here is an explanation by ThisNation.com

The Pledge of Alliance includes the phrase: "and to the republic for which it stands." Is the United States of America a republic? I always thought it was a democracy? What's the difference between the two?

The United States is, indeed, a republic, not a democracy. Accurately defined, a democracy is a form of government in which the people decide policy matters directly--through town hall meetings or by voting on ballot initiatives and referendums. A republic, on the other hand, is a system in which the people choose representatives who, in turn, make policy decisions on their behalf. 

The Framers of the Constitution were altogether fearful of pure democracy. Everything they read and studied taught them that pure democracies "have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths" (Federalist No. 10).

By popular usage, however, the word "democracy" come to mean a form of government in which the government derives its power from the people and is accountable to them for the use of that power. In this sense the United States might accurately be called a democracy. However, there are examples of "pure democracy" at work in the United States today that would probably trouble the Framers of the Constitution if they were still alive to see them. Many states allow for policy questions to be decided directly by the people by voting on ballot initiatives or referendums.

(Initiatives originate with, or are initiated by, the people while referendums originate with, or are referred to the people by, a state's legislative body.) That the Constitution does not provide for national ballot initiatives or referendums is indicative of the Framers' opposition to such mechanisms. They were not confident that the people had the time, wisdom or level-headedness to make complex decisions, such as those that are often presented on ballots on election day.

Writing of the merits of a republican or representative form of government, James Madison observed that one of the most important differences between a democracy and a republic is "the delegation of the government [in a republic] to a small number of citizens elected by the rest."

The primary effect of such a scheme, Madison continued, was to:

. . . refine and enlarge the public views by passing them through the medium of a chosen body of citizens whose wisdom may best discern the true interest of their country and whose patriotism and love of justice will be least likely to sacrifice it to temporary or partial considerations. Under such a regulation it may well happen that the public voice, pronounced by the representatives of the people, will be more consonant to the public good than if pronounced by the people themselves, convened for the same purpose (Federalist No. 10).

Later, Madison elaborated on the importance of "refining and enlarging the public views" through a scheme of representation:

There are particular moments in public affairs when the people, stimulated by some irregular passion, or some illicit advantage, or misled by the artful misrepresentations of interested men, may call for measures which they themselves will afterwards be most ready to lament and condemn. In these critical moments, how salutary will be the interference of some temperate and respectable body of citizens, in order to check the misguided career and to suspend the blow meditated by the people against themselves, until reason, justice and truth can regain their authority over the public mind (Federalist No. 63).

In the strictest sense of the word, the system of government established by the Constitution was never intended to be a "democracy." This is evident not only in the wording of the Pledge of Alliance but in the Constitution itself which declares that "The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government" (Article IV, Section 4).  Moreover, the scheme of representation and the various mechanisms for selecting representatives established by the Constitution were clearly intended to produce a republic, not a democracy.

To the extent that the United States of America has moved away from its republican roots and become more "democratic," it has strayed from the intentions of the Constitution's authors. Whether or not the trend toward more direct democracy would be smiled upon by the Framers depends on the answer to another question. Are the American people today sufficiently better informed and otherwise equipped to be wise and prudent democratic citizens than were American citizens in the late 1700s? By all accounts, the answer to this second question is an emphatic "no."

Note Data Source for statistics: U.S. Bureau of the Census. "Projected Population by Single Year of Age (0-99, 100+), Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for the United States: July 1, 2014 to July 1, 2060." Released December 2014. Web-based data files available at:

http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014/downloadablefiles.html

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What Happened to Candidates for the People, not Political Hacks? The Second Congressional District of West Virginia - a hypothetical case study!

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As we prepare to enter the "silly season" of politics and brace ourselves for the onslaught of up to $5 billion in political spending, mostly political ads, did you ever wonder how people are selected to run for office.

There are a variety of ways one used to be a candidate for office, particularly federal office, but the collapse of federal campaign finance laws and the failure of any candidate for president to propose new laws will insure the path to election is lined with cash.

What a pity.  Once upon a time, the two political parties reached out to people who were not career politicians to bring new life to political office and new ideas for people to consider.

Once upon a time, when people were running for office, whether Democrats or Republicans, once elected they actually worked to serve all the people in their state or district.  In fact, they even worked with members of the opposite party to help all people.

Unfortunately, that practice seems dead.  It is the political parties and the professional politicians they support who have fostered the bitter partisanship, the character assassination, and the smear campaigns to keep people out of office.

The result, many good people, and many deserving people who really care about all people get denied the chance to hold public office.  When this happens, people get cheated out of the caring, compassionate, and understanding leaders we deserve and need.

Where are the people's politicians who put the needs of the people first and who never lose sight of the sacred trust between an elected official and all the people they serve?

Let me give you a hypothetical example so you can see what I mean.  Let us take the Second Congressional District of West Virginia.  The Second District is one of the strangest in the nation as it extends from the Washington suburbs in the Northeast part of the state all the way through Charleston almost to Kentucky.

During the most recent election in 2014, the party candidates for Congress included the former chairman of the West Virginia Democrat Party running against the former chairman of the Maryland Republican party.  Democrat Nick Casey and Republican Alex Mooney squared off.

 

As whacky as it sounds that is what happened.  Professional politicians from both political parties squared off to represent the Mountaineers.  Mooney, who did not even live in West Virginia when he started his campaign, was running for public office in his third different state: New Hampshire, Maryland, and West Virginia.^[

Casey, the prohibitive favorite as former state Democrat party chairman, president of the ABA, prominent Catholic, Charleston resident, person with exceptional charitable credentials, and candidate with by far the highest public recognition, got just 60% of the vote in the primary and 43.9% in the general election.

Mooney pulled off a major upset.

As we approach the 2016 election cycle, what do you suppose is happening in the now GOP Second District.  Mooney is preparing for the re-election campaign although there is some speculation that if a Republican became president Mooney would be in line for a major position in the new administration.

On the Democrat side the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, DCCC, is encouraging Nick Casey to run again for the Second District WV Congressional seat.  The fact such action is being reported in the news media suggests the DCCC has decided to push Casey and discourage any other candidates from running, much like is being done with Hillary Clinton at the presidential level.

As for Casey vulnerability, I believe Casey could lose the race by even more votes than the last election.  Several issues could cause serious damage to his efforts. Casey is vulnerable for two reasons, his time as Democratic State party leader in West Virginia, and his statements in the last campaign.

While I have only completed a cursory review of the actual voting breakdown, certain things are quite clear.  First, in 2016, there will be massive GOP spending for president and the message will be targeted at two potential Achilles heels for Casey, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Like it or not Casey is linked to Obama, to DNC leader Debbie Wasserman Schultz, to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and to key elements of the Obama program.  As a result, the GOP will portray him as just another party hack doing the bidding of the professional politicians.

His super-delegate and party spokesperson role put him on record supporting what Obama, Pelosi, and Schultz told people to say.  The fact he had to say he was going to vote against Pelosi in the last campaign, if elected, showed his party vulnerability.

His strong support for Obama on Obamacare and energy policy both became campaign issues used against him, and will be larger issues in the next campaign because of the spending in the presidential election.

That same party loyalty over what is good for the people of West Virginia will include his relationship to Hillary who already has her highest negatives recorded and the campaign has barely begun.

Since Casey was on record saying he wanted the Clintons help in his campaign, and he supported her during her State department days, it links him to her and her standing in the polls.

However, from a hypothetical standpoint there may be a far better candidate than either Mooney or Casey.  One who will never get to serve the people of West Virginia because the professional politicians want to keep the seat in the control of professional politicians.

     

My hypothetical candidate is a real person, Clarence E. Martin, III of Martinsburg.  "CEM" Martin possesses about every quality known to elevate politicians to friends and advocates for all the people.

Since this is a key swing district in a key swing state, it would seem one grounded in serving people like Martin rather than parties, is an ideal candidate.  He is homegrown from West Virginia with three generations of prominent family in public service serving the citizens of West Virginia.

Why CEM Martin should be the Congressman, hypothetically speaking that is.

He is homegrown with a statewide network of friends and long go demonstrated a commitment to family, faith, and loyalty.  CEM Martin was a past president of the State Bar Association.  His grandfather was past president of the American Bar Association.  CEM would garner support from a variety of local networks like lawyers, the Chamber of Commerce, religious groups, non-profits, and the business community.

Throughout his career he demonstrated how to serve people and put their interests first.  With Congressional committee staff experience, international experience through think tanks, and his standing as one of the highest-ranking members of the Papal backed Knights of Malta in the USA, he is free of partisan political association.  When you add his family legacy and a charming wife and daughters, he could make a formidable candidate.

Most important is the legacy issue.  West Virginians seem to like authentic, homegrown candidates and if ever there was a race when it should have been evident, it was last year.

Clarence E. "CEM" Martin, III is a Shareholder at Martin & Seibert, L.C. and is the third generation of his family to be a member of the firm. His Grandfather, Clarence E. Martin, President of the American Bar Association in 1932-1933 founded the firm over 100 years ago, in 1908, in Martinsburg.

CEM's parents

CEM is a former Assistant Counsel to the Interstate and Foreign Commerce Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives (now Energy and Commerce) and Trial Attorney for the U.S. Department of Justice. He was a Member of the West Virginia House of Delegates from 1976 – 1982 and held various leadership positions.

In May of 2012, Martin was appointed by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia to chair a select committee to review and revise the Constitution, Bylaws, Rules, and Regulations of the West Virginia State Bar. Mr. Martin has taken leadership roles in a number of professional and business organizations in West Virginia and beyond. He recently served as Chair for the West Virginia State Chamber of Commerce.

He has also served his communities in the following practices:

President of the West Virginia Bar Association in 1991-92

Commissioner on the U.S. Commission on Agricultural Workers from 1988-92

National Board of the American Board of Trial Advocates from 1986-94

Fellow, West Virginia Bar Foundation

Fellow, Litigation Counsel of America

Fellow of the American Bar Foundation

Board of Directors of the Defense Trial

Board of Directors of the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce, serving as Chair 2007-2008

Board of Advisors for Shepherd University serving as its Chair from 1990-92 and 1995-97

Board of Advisors for the Catholic University of America, Columbus School of Law

Board of Directors of Catholic Charities of West Virginia

Board of Directors for Vision Shared

Board of Directors for the West Virginia Education Alliance

Board of Directors for the International Partnership for Human Development

Board of Directors for West Virginia Council for Community and Economic Development

Board of Directors for the Holy Family Hospital Foundation

Board of Directors for the Federal Association of the Order of Malta

Member of the West Virginia Law Institute

Member of the National Association of Railroad Trial Counsel

Who's Who in America

Who's Who in American Law

Honorary Doctorate degree by Shepherd University

Honors

He was named a Super Lawyer in West Virginia in 2008 through 2011,which recognizes the top five percent of lawyers in the state, and named a Fellow in the Litigation Counsel of America in 2007, which recognizes the top two percent of litigators in the U.S.  In 2011, he was named to Best Lawyers in America, which is a peer rated listing recognizing the top lawyers in the U.S.

Also in 2011 he was elected to the Claims and Litigation Management Alliance. The Alliance is a nonpartisan group made up of insurance companies, corporations, law firms, and service providers committed to furthering the highest standards of litigation management.  In 2012 he graduated from the Alliance's first certification program in litigation management held at the Columbia Law School and is a Certified Litigation Management Professional.

In 1992 he was appointed to serve on the West Virginia Council for Community and Economic Development, which developed and directed the State's economic development programs and he  elected its Secretary and served until 1995. CEM also chaired the West Virginia Economic Development Foundation and the West Virginia Economic Development Corporation, which are authorized by the Council as private funding corporations for the State's economic development programs.

He now serves on the board of Vision Shared which works with the State's development office on economic development. He served as President of the Discover the REAL West Virginia Foundation from its founding in 1993 through 2004, focusing on economic development and international trade issues with U.S. Senator John D. Rockefeller, IV.

He is also Chairman of the Berkeley County Roundhouse Authority, which is restoring a historic railroad property. In 2003, Mr. Martin was elected a Fellow in the West Virginia Bar Foundation.

CEM is a member of the Board of Directors for the Holy Family Hospital Foundation which supports the Holy Family Hospital. The Hospital is the only hospital that provides critical, neo-natal care in Bethlehem, in the Palestinian Territories. He is also president of the Washington-Baltimore Chapter of the Patrons of the Arts in the Vatican Museums.

In 2000, Mr. Martin was invested in the Order of Malta as a Knight of Magisterial Grace. In 2003, he was elected to the Federal Association's Board of Directors. In 2004 he was invested as a member of the Order of the Holy Sepulchre, and the Constantinian Order of St. George. In 2007 he was awarded the Cross of Merit by the Order for service to the Order and Church. In 2009 he was advanced in rank in the Order of Malta to the second class in Obedience.

In 2013 when he was named to the Order of St Gregory the Great by Pope Benedict XVI, an honor that was personally presented by the Pope.  It represents the highest award bestowed on a Catholic layperson.  More recently, he has had several private audiences with Pope Francis.

CEM is qualified to practice law before the following courts.  The U.S. Supreme Court, the West Virginia Supreme Court, the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals of the Third and Fourth Circuits, the U.S. District Courts for the Eastern and Middle Districts of Pennsylvania, Northern and Southern Districts of West Virginia, District of Columbia and Eastern District of Virginia, The Court of Appeals for Maryland, and the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania.

Whew...

Can you imagine that hypothetical candidates like CEM Martin will never get a chance to represent the people of West Virginia when they are exactly what the people of West Virginia need and deserve.

[Note - In the interest of transparency I was a classmate with CEM at the University of Arizona and he has consistently told me he is not a candidate for Congress in West Virginia, though he should be.]

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President Obama pitches home run for Republicans

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The same week Obama gets a second major budget initiative bill from a bi-partisan Congress thanks to the tireless efforts of House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Patty Murray which provides a year of Congressional stability and avoids government shutdowns and other nonsense, Obama takes the bully pulpit once again.

 

 

Obama is quite the dichotomy, or is it trichotomy?  There is the ethereal, detached professor who lectures America as if we are stuck in stupid.  There is the frustrated and hypocritical Nobel Peace Prize winner still trying to end war five years after winning the coveted prize.  And there is the Chicago back room politician who seems to have forgotten thugs stopped being in vogue back in Richard Daley days.

 

 

No one in America should be more aware of the paralyzing effects of bitter partisan politics than Barack Obama.  Every year since elected he has invoked the finger pointing threat of condemning Congress for failing to say yes to everything he wants.  Then he moans and groans about the need for bi-partisan cooperation because he can't get what he wants.

 

 

Now, after five years of intellectual and Congressional constipation when Congress finally does start working together which Barack Obama shows his face, the same old Chicago thug from five years ago who basically said to Hell with Congress and the people, I'm going to use executive powers to do what I want!

 

At times it seems our president is more concerned with his legacy than his performance in office.  At times it seems he is resigned to doing nothing with Congress or the Supreme Court when the Constitution defines a clear role for all three branches of government.  Kind of makes you wonder what they taught him in his Constitutional Law courses at Harvard.

 

 

Be that as it may, did he also forget this is an election year?  A swing of just six Senate seats from Democrat to Republican would give the GOP control of both the House and Senate for the last two years of the Obama presidency.  If he thinks things have been tough so far, imagine what would happen if he lost control of the Senate.

 

 

Thanks to ObamaCare four Senate Democrats up for re-election have already said they will resign.  Senators don't resign without reason and there is no better reason than to think you can't win.  If such is the case, the GOP needs only two more seats to take control for the next two years.

 

 

So why does Obama condemn Congress and the GOP when they are working together for the first time in five years?  That is the home run ball he served up to the Republicans.  It also may be the lingering failure to get over politics Chicago style and a continuing failure to realize what worked in Chicago all those years ago is not relevant to the modern day and present needs.

 

 

His mastery of the teleprompter and triumphant speeches long ago lost their luster to the American people who are still trying to recover from an economic collapse caused by greed and prolonged by partisan bickering.  No matter how smooth you may be as a politician, eventually the people expect results.

 

No president has ever been successful because they were a partisan bully.  No president has ever been successful by condemning the two branches of government our Founding Fathers felt could protect us from an abuse of power and anarchy, the Legislative and Executive branches.

 

 

It just seems that Obama has never understood his is not an Imperial presidency but a democratic election to office by barely 50% of the vote.  Yet once elected, he is the president for all the people, not just those who like him.  Serving all the people all the time seems foreign to the Obama administration and that is a sad truth to ponder.

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America's Most Powerful Conservatives in the Eyes of the Brits - The View from Across the Pond

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The Telegraph - UK

The most influential US conservatives

The final instalment of Telegraph.co.uk's list of the conservatives who most influence American politics.

By Toby Harnden, US Editor

1. Dick Cheney (6 in the 2007 list )

Former Vice President of the United States

A low key and intensely loyal vice-president, Dick Cheney has emerged as the principal tormentor of Barack Obama in the past year, shaping the national debate on national security and forcing the White House to scramble to respond. Cheney signalled his intent way back in February when he stated that protecting America was “a tough, mean, dirty, nasty business” in which “evil people” would not be stopped “by turning the other cheek”. Having campaigned against the “politics of fear” and ridiculing the notion of a war on terror, Obama is finding out that the Islamist threat was not something dreamed up by Cheney and Bush. The President has been repeatedly rattled by Cheney, as illustrated by his decision last May to time a speech so that it would coincide with the former vice-president’s address at the American Enterprise Institute. It was Cheney who framed Obama’s delay on deciding his Afghanistan surge strategy as “dithering” – and the characterisation stuck.

Some Republicans are deeply uncomfortable about Cheney being the voice of national security for the party – and in many respects the main voice on any issue. They fret that he is old and white and grumpy and has low approval rating – making him, in essence, everything that Obama is not (though the gap between their approval ratings is narrowing). We judge that this is missing the point. Cheney’s role at this stage – before a new Republican leader emerges – is to energise the party base (and he will also be a prodigious fundraiser for 2010 and 2012), keep Obama on the back foot and engage in the “tough, mean, dirty, nasty business” of politics that some with their names on future ballots would prefer to sit out.

2. Rush Limbaugh (5)

Talk radio host

The king of conservative talk radio – in fact, any talk radio – continues to go from strength to strength. Much slimmer, due to get married for a fourth time on the Fourth of July and having just survived a heart attack scare in Honolulu, Limbaugh’s influence continues to expand far beyond his show. When Michael Steele, chair of the Republican National Committee, described Limbaugh’s rhetoric as “incendiary" and "ugly", he soon corrected himself and apologised: “My intent was not to go after Rush - I have enormous respect for Rush Limbaugh." Limbaugh, who turned 59 this week, has clearly got inside Obama’s head and the White House unwisely decided to brand him as the de facto leader of the Republican party as a way of marginalising the GOP. This only served to elevate Limbaugh – the vast majority of whose critics clearly never listen to his show.

Limbaugh flexed his muscle during the 2008 democratic primary battle by encouraging his listeners to vote for Hillary Clinton against Obama in what he dubbed “Operation Chaos”. Democratic operatives concede that he had an effect. Since Obama was elected, Limbaugh has gone after him like a starving pit bull let loose on a lamb. He has described Obama’s political rise as “a five-minute career" of a man who was "immature, inexperienced, in over his head", charging: “I think he's got an out-of-this-world ego. He's very narcissistic. And he's able to focus all attention on him all the time.” This prompted David Axelrod, a top Obama adviser, to respond rather lamely: “I think it's a surreal day when you're getting lectures on humility from Rush Limbaugh. The fact is that he is an entertainer. The president has to run the country." But Limbaugh does not underestimate Obama. This week, he warned: “He is not a cool, calm customer. He's a cold, calculating one, and he has a vision of America that is not yours and not mine.”

3. Matt Drudge (3)

Internet pioneer, owner of The Drudge Report

Many have predicted Drudge’s demise but the internet pioneer who sprung to national attention when he broke the Monica Lewinsky scandal as the mainstream media hesitated endures. As with Limbaugh, the White House despises Drudge but cannot stop thinking about him. When Drudge posted a video of Obama Biographies Plus News talking about the end of private health insurance in 2007, the White House sent out Linda Douglass, White House Deputy Communications Director and a former ABC News reporter to brand them "outright falsehoods”. Drudge promptly posted the clip of Douglass, who came off second in the tussle. Establishment journalism types often decry Drudge but many of them are in email contact with him and crave a link that can immediately catapult one of their stories to the top of their newspaper website’s “most viewed” list.

Perhaps the most reclusive figures in modern journalism, Drudge’s air of mystery is such that some people wonder whether he still exists. He did, however, make an appearance at a Washington DC rally when Hillary Clinton pulled out of the Democratic primary contest in June 2008. Very occasionally, he will return an email at a strange time of day. Although based in Miami, he is rumoured to be constantly on the move and often abroad. An admirer of the British media (which he frequently links to) he is believed to have spent time in the UK recently. His website remains defiantly low tech. As the Telegraph’s own Shane Richmond described it: “It’s a simple idea, executed brilliantly. The Drudge Report is a page of search results, handpicked for an audience its author knows well.” His site is reputedly run by just him and one other person, based in Los Angeles. Such is the fascination with what motivates Drudge’s choices that the Washington Post’s Chris Cilizza coined the term “Drudge-ologist”, who dismissed “the inevitable argument that Drudge's influence is overblown” by saying: “Tomorrow morning, take a minute to look at the stories Drudge is highlighting. Then, later in the day, watch a few cable channels to see what stories they are talking about. It will open your eyes.”

4. Sarah Palin (Not in the 2007 list)

Former Alaska governor

Palin came from nowhere in terms of the public consciousness in 2008 to become an instant political and media star who is vilified and lauded in equal measure. Things have not been smooth for Palin. Clearly unprepared to be a national candidate, John McCain rolled the dice when he chose her as his vice-presidential running mate. Initially, it seemed to pay off. She delivered a masterful speech at the Republican convention in St Paul, Minnesota, electrified a Republican base that had been distinctly underwhelmed by McCain – and the GOP nominee briefly edged ahead in the polls. It soon became apparent, however, that the McCain campaign was divided over whether Palin was an asset or a liability. They shielded her from the press, wounded her confidence and then plonked her in front of network anchors who made her look foolish and tongue-tied.

Rather than go back to Alaska, become a first-class governor, study policy issues and gently reintroduce herself to the “Lower 48” states in due course, Palin decided to do something entirely different. Stating that “only dead fish go with the flow”, she resigned the Alaska governorship, published a book that broke publishing records and, this week, signed on as a Fox News contributor. It remains unclear whether Palin intends to run for President – she may well genuinely not know herself – but she will certainly be one of conservatism’s most influential figures for the forseeable future. Rich Lowry of National Review described her as “an isotope designed to course throughout our politics and culture, lighting up press bias, self-congratulatory liberalism, Christianity-hating secularism, and intellectual condescension wherever they are found”. Whether she could be a saviour for Republicans or doom them to continued irrelevance is a question that will continue to divide conservatives across America.

5. Robert Gates (7)

Defence Secretary

The low-key Gates, a former CIA director whose original cover (soon blown) as a trainee spy was as a Pentagon official, was lured away from his beloved Texas A&M University by President George W. Bush to replace Donald Rumsfeld at the end of 2006. Over a 27-year Agency career, Gates became the only person ever to rise from entry level to CIA chief. Obama dismayed many liberals by asking Gates to stay on but even though it is clear he is fulfilling much more than a caretaker his detractors are now quiet. During the autumn debate over troops levels in Afghanistan, Gates played a pivotal role in persuading Obama to commit more forces to support General Stanley McChrystal’s plan. The “Option 2A" that Obama eventually went for was essentially Gates’s formula.

Having overseen the Iraq surge, Gates is now charged with making the Afghanistan surge work. Although weighed down by military losses, Gates is finding his job so rewarding that he and Obama recently agreed he would stay on for at least another year. Firmly in the “realist” school of foreign policy, Gates still considers himself a Republican and his approach and style could well provide the template for presidential candidates in the post-Bush era.

6. Glenn Beck (18)

Fox News presenter

The fastest-rising star of cable television, Beck delivers monologues that veer from doom-saying to tears, jokes and rapid fire analysis of Obamaland’s suspect connections, hidden beliefs and dark plots. His subjects include: the threat of fascism/communism, terrorism, Wall Street fat cats, Mexico’s collapse, the decline of religion and power of the liberal media. All this is united by the theme of impending doom and the fear that the ordinary American is being forgotten.

It is working spectacularly. Since switching from CNN’s Headline News to Fox News Beck has soared up the ratings chart with his 5pm show capturing an average two million viewers, an unprecedented number at that hour. His talk radio show rates third in the country. There have been five best-selling books.

A recovered alcoholic and drug addict he has also cried more than any presenter in memory, often welling up at the thought of what will happen to the United States. "I'm sorry. I just love my country. And I fear for it,” he once wept.

His opposition to “big government” and Obama has seen him adopted by many in the Tea Party movement as their figurehead. There has been talk of a presidential bid, which will do his ratings no harm. "I consider myself a libertarian. I'm a conservative, but every day that goes by I'm fighting for individual rights," explained Beck, who has described his show as a “fusion of enlightenment and entertainment”.

7.Roger Ailes (23)

President, Fox News Channel

When Roger Ailes, a veteran media consultant for Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George Bush Snr, heard that his boss Rupert Murdoch was preparing to back Obama for President in a New York Post editorial, he threatened to resign. Murdoch responded by giving him a pay rise (he is said to have earned $23 million last year – more than Murdoch) and endorsing John McCain. As the traditional broadcast networks see their profits and influence decline, Ailes has turned Fox News into a cash cow for News Corporation, trading on the President’s growing unpopularity to make Fox the go-to place for everything anti-Obama. Assessing Fox’s influence, Obama reckoned the “Fox effect” had cost him two or three points in the 2008 election – which means that next time it could well decide who becomes President. Democratic operative James Carville recently said that if Ailes were a Democrat “I think there would be 67 Democratic senators right now”. There are currently 60.

Along with the legendarily combative operative Lee Attwater, Ailes was responsible for Bush Snr’s win over Michael Dukakis in 1988 by helping to portray the then Massachusetts governor as a weak leader lacking in humanity. The presence of so many Fox personalities – including its new signing Sarah Palin - on this list once again is testament to the runaway influence of Fox News, which Ailes started in 1996 as a rival to CNN. Keeps his distance from the Republican party these days, not least because its higher-ups go to him rather than vice versa . Truth be told, he and Fox are bigger than almost all of them.

8. David Petraeus (2)

Head of US Central Command

As commander of the troop surge in Iraq, General Petraeus became one of the most prominent US military officers in recent memory and was closely associated with President George W. Bush. Not only did his demand for extra troops and a switch to counter-insurgency tactics help put a devastated country on the track towards recovery, it helped salvage a chance of historical redemption for Bush.

Now head of all American forces in the Middle East, he has the delicate task of winding down the Iraq war while helping Obama to win in Afghanistan. In both countries he has commanders, General Ray Odierno and General Stanley McChrystal who share his views of counterinsurgency doctrine and have worked closely with him for years.

Centcom covers a vast area with 20 nations that contains most of the world’s current hot spots. Petraeus had twice travelled to Yemen to discuss how the US will support the government’s attempts to combat al-Qaeda’s affiliate there. Very much the soldier-scholar, Petraeus can more than hold his own in political company. Assumed to be a Republican, rumours of a run for office have subsided for the time being but the tone of his comments on Islamist terror, even in the confines of a congressional hearing, suggest that he tilts to the Right.

9. Paul Ryan (-)

Wisconsin congressman

Paul Ryan has it all – including time on his side. He entered Congress at the tender age of 28 and doesn’t turn 40 until this year. A budget hawk, he is now the senior Republican on the House Budget Committee and is holding the Obama administration’s feet to the fire just as he challenged the Bush administration to return to fiscal conservatism. Undoubtedly a future presidential prospect, he hails from a swing state and won re-election in 2008 even though his district went for Obama – an illustration of his powerful crossover appeal. A Catholic and strong social conservative, Ryan is happily married with three children and is a keen bow hunter and fisherman. His website Americanroadmap.org outlines his plans to rewrite the entire federal tax, healthcare and Social Security system.

Increasingly a national figure, he recently endorsed Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate primary, saying that “Marco’s record of conservative leadership offers convincing evidence that he will hold Washington accountable, prevent government from wasting our tax dollars and lead a new generation of Republicans”. Showed he is not afraid to go against his party’s hierarchy. A former Senate aide, he wrote speeches for Jack Kemp, Republican vice-presidential candidate in 1996. He is the fifth generation of his family to live in Janesville, Wisconsin. Used to hold constituency hours in an old truck that he would drive to remote towns and villages. Has a populist touch, recently penning an essay for Forbes entitled Down With Big Business, railing against lobbyists, “crony capitalism” and the “record profits” of rescued banks.

10.Tim Pawlenty (-)

Governor of Minnesota

The runner-up for the vice-presidential slot on the 2008 Republican ticket, he lost out to Sarah Palin then but is viewed by many GOP leaders as the better long-term bet. Has said he will not run for re-election when his term expires this year, meaning he will have more time to spend with his wife and two daughters, as well as the consultants he has quietly locked in for what everyone assumes will be a 2012 presidential bid. A Catholic who converted to become a Protestant evangelical, he is a favourite of Christian conservatives and also comes from a swing state and has the kind of Mid-West appeal that resonates in a national campaign. Although conservative on all the important issues, he advocates a broad church. “We loved Ronald Reagan, but he made some compromises along the way," he said in 2008. “We don't have a big enough party to be throwing people overboard.”

Has visited first-voting Iowa and even contacted supporters of Mitt Romney, the other Republican viewed as a certain 2012 candidate as well as founding his own political action committee, Freedom First. Is already engaged in a carefully-planned programme of criss-crossing the country speaking at conservatives dinners and other events. An increasingly assured cable television performer, he is a frequent critic of Obama, branding him a “movement liberal” who is “projecting potential weakness” on national security.

11. Mitt Romney (10)

Former Governor of Massachusetts

Romney failed to overcome doubts about the genuineness of his principles in 2008 after he transformed himself from a moderate Republican in Massachusetts in favour of abortion rights into a crusading social conservative. Despite his “Matinee Mitt” looks, huge fortune (though slightly less huge since he spent an estimated $50 million in 2008), executive experience and intelligence, Romney had an authenticity problem that he just could not overcome. His fellow Republican candidates seemed to have a visceral dislike of him, though that has abated somewhat, especially in the case of John McCain, whom Romney loyally supported in the general election campaign.

Since losing to McCain, Romney has barely stopped campaigning, taking frequent shots at Obama’s economic and foreign policy and forming the Free and Strong America Political Action Committee. The Republican congressional party has often sought the former CEO’s expertise for ideas on economic policy. It is widely assumed that he will run again in 2012 and if so probably start as the official frontrunner. The question of his Mormon religion – which many evangelicals regard as a semi-Christian cult – will doubtless rear its head again. And Republicans won’t have forgotten that Romney struggled to connect with voters outside the country club set and will be want to make a cold calculation about whether this is an insurmountable flaw.

12. George W. Bush (21)

Former President

In 2007, George W. Bush just missed our Top 20 top conservatives list – a provocative and controversial decision but one that reflected his disastrous poll ratings, the dismay of conservatives at out-of-control spending, the colossal mistakes over Iraq and his failure to consolidate the conservative majority he had won. Aides protested that history would vindicate him and already there are signs that this is happening. The Iraq “surge” of 2007 unquestionably won the war and has helped establish a viable democratic state in the heart of the Middle East. There were terrible errors committed along the way but Bush showed the vision and toughness to change course and commit American blood and treasure when all appeared lost.

Bush’s influence endures also because Obama and his advisers seem scarcely able to do anything without referring to his predecessor. This betrays a shallowness that is beginning to wear thin with American voters. With the recent terrorist attacks, Bush’s relentless focus on Islamist terrorism now looks wise rather than obsessive and he bequeathed Obama one of the most impressive members of the current Cabinet – Bob Gates. Bush’s absence from the limelight and his refusal to criticise Obama even through surrogates is to be commended. So too was his personal insistence that led to the transition between the two administrations being one of the smoothest in American history.

13. John Roberts (8)

Supreme Court Chief Justice

There may be a liberal in the White House, but the Supreme Court has a reliable conservative at its head who is set to shape the parameters of American life for a generation. Aged 50 when he joined in 2005, he was the third youngest man to lead the court and has been a reliable conservative so far. In 2008, the court overturned on a 5-4 vote the District of Columbia’s 32-year-old ban on handguns as incompatible with the Second Amendment of the Constitution. The first major pronouncement on gun rights in the court’s history, it settled the argument over whether or not the controversial amendment applied to individuals. But it ruled that like all rights it was not absolute, essentially allowing states and cities to vary their gun laws on issues such as carrying and concealment.

The court did deal a setback to Bush, ruling that detainees held at Guantanamo Bay have a constitutional right to challenge their detentions in federal court and that congressional legislation has failed to provide a reasonable substitute for such a hearing. On that occasion Roberts was on the losing side as Justice Anthony Kennedy voted with the liberals. The Christian Right’s holy grail of overturning Roe versus Wade and making abortion illegal is not among the chief justice’s plans, but in the next few years detention, torture, free speech and other hot button issues will come before the Roberts court.

14. Haley Barbour (16)

Governor of Mississippi

Head of the Republican Governors Association after Mark Sanford stepped down in June, Barbour is a lawyer, lobbyist, political operative and Republican governor whose influence is huge at this key moment for American conservatism. As chairman of the Republican National Committee from 1993 to 1997 – the period of the “Republican Revolution” when the GOP won the Senate and House for the first time since 1954 – he has led his party back from the wilderness before. Made millions lobbying for the tobacco industry and others before entering electoral politics. Easily re-elected as Mississippi governor in 2007, Barbour is only the second Republican to secure the post since Reconstruction and won the backing of several of the state’s leading Democrats.

During Hurricane Katrina, his performance was compared to that of Rudy Giuliani in New York after the 9/11 attacks as he calmly ordered evacuations, threatened those who would break the law amid the carnage on the Gulf coast and declined to blame Bush or the federal government. As a personable, successful Southern governor with huge experience, he is a potential 2012 candidate but his lobbying background and slightly shambolic air would probably count him out. Recognising this, Barbour instead seems content to be one of the principal advocates for and strategists of another Republican revival. He warned last year, however, that it wouldn’t be easy. “The elections that matter for Republicans are in 2009 and '10. 1993 paved the way for the 1994 congressional election. The 2009 elections in Virginia and New Jersey were a big tick on the box for the GOP and Barbour. He added: “The other thing that's a fact is only once since 1896 has a party won the White House from the other party and only kept it four years. So history favours the Democrats but then again, we're in unprecedented times in many, many ways.”

15. Eric Cantor (-)

Congressman for Virginia

A youthful 46, Cantor is routinely – and accurately - described as a rising star, becoming Minority Whip a year ago after eight years in the House of Representatives. The only Jewish Republican in Congress, he advocates a strong US-Israeli alliance and led a Republican congressional delegation to the Middle East in August to rouse support for Israeli settlements that he felt the White House overlooked.

Although a strong conservative across the board, he aims to help return the Republicans to power by becoming less ideologically focused on social issues and more concerned with economical issues. He believes “60 per cent of America is with us in believing in a Main Street, common-sense conservatism" but that Republicans struggle to connect with voters for reasons of image.

During his first year as Whip showed no qualms about taking on liberal big beasts such as Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank, excoriating them for politicising the first bailout bill. He regularly consults Newt Gingrich for inspiration about how the party can repeat his success of 1994 but it will be up to Cantor and his colleagues to produce eye-catching policy ideas if they really want to capitalise on disenchantment with the Democrats.

16. John McCain (9)

Senator for Arizona

The losing Republican presidential candidate’s concession speech on election night in 2008 was one of his finest moments, a shining example of the dignity, fairness and patriotism that McCain’s supporters adore him for.

Some erratic moments did his campaign no favours, but it was probably always a virtually unwinnable election for Republicans, and the former Vietnam prisoner of war came through with his honour substantially intact, not least because he declined to go strongly negative against Obama and raise issues like his relationship wth the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Plenty of fellow moderate Republicans have privately and publicly questioned the wisdom of picking Sarah Palin as a vice-presidential candidate, but in the end it was perhaps no more than a gamble that didn’t pay off. No one could foresee the phenomenon she became.

The elder statesman remains his own man and one of few Senators whose remarks always command attention. His objections to Obama’s July 2011 to start bringing home troops from Afghanistan had a credibility rooted in his long foreign policy experience and advocacy of the successful surge in Iraq. Recently accused Obama of "leading an extreme Left-wing crusade to bankrupt America”. Obama would have done well to court his former opponent but seems to have missed his chance. McCain will remain in the thick of the legislative action, especially if the Democrats lose their filibuster-proof majority. Now 73, he will not run for President but is on course to be re-elected to another six-year term in the Senate.

17. Mike Pence (19)

Indiana congressman

Any conversation about rising stars within the conservative movement involves Mike Pence. A lawyer, former talk radio host and now the third-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives has just fuelled rumours of a possible presidential run by hiring national campaign operatives Kellyanne Conway and Bill Neale. Entered Congress in 2001 and has described himself as "a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order". As chair of the Republican Study Committee - a conservative congressional caucus - Pence was a crusader for small government, low taxes and the outlawing of abortion. Now he’s even higher profile as chair of the GOP House conference.

Is beloved by the tea party movement, which could yet turn out to be the kingmaker in the Republican party. Although a 2012 presidential bid is possible, a more likely option for Pence might be to run for Governor of Indiana when Mitch Daniels steps down (he is term-limited). Alternatively, with Senator Richard Lugar in his 78th year, Pence would be a natural to replace him. An outspoken defender of conservative radio and television hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck, he said in October: “To my friends in the so-called ‘mainstream media’ I say, ‘conservative talk show hosts may not speak for everybody but they speak for more Americans than you do.’” An accomplished communicator, he is at the forefront of rebuilding the Republican brand. “If you can’t communicate, you can’t govern,” he has said.

18. Bob McDonnell (-)

Governor-elect of Virginia

McDonnell’s landslide 17-point victory over opponent Creigh Deeds in the Virginia governor’s race last November stunned Democrats and demonstrated at an early stage that Obama’s party is in for a rough ride in 2010. Virginia took on an almost iconic status for the Obama campaign, voting for their man by a thumping margin over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. The traditionally conservative state with a strong military presence then chose Mr Obama over McCain.

19. Newt Gingrich (4)

Former Speaker of the House of Representatives

It is a testament to the power of Gingrich’s intellect, personality and penchant for self-promotion that a decade after leaving public office he remains a central conservative figure. Part of this is his interest in ideas rather than just the mechanics of politics. He has remained committed to low tax and small government as well as looking for innovative solutions to social challenges. He was increasingly critical of the Bush administration, eventually branding it a study in “arrogance, isolation and destructiveness” and vigourously opposed Bush’s proposed immigration reform.

Although still a hate figure among Democrats, he has cooperated with the likes of Hillary Clinton on healthcare and Al Sharpton on inner city education and appeared in a television ad alongside Nancy Pelosi to urge action on climate change. None of these alliances across the aisle has endeared him to grassroots Republicans. Neither did his endorsement of GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava in a New York state special House election rather than Doug Hoffman, the Conservative candidate. When Scozzafava pulled out and backed the Democrat, Gingrich was left with egg on his face.

He eventually ruled out a presidential bid in 2008 after conducting a long tease with the media. True to form, he is engaging in the same act for 2012, declaring this week: “"I think I'm probably on a list of seven or eight possible candidates at this stage.” Former aides, however, state that the thrice-married Gingrich knows he could never be president. An omnipresent media commentator, he has been a trenchant critic of the Obama’s national security policy. “We are watching the Obama administration return to the criminal-justice attitudes that failed to keep [the US] safe in the Clinton years,” he said recently.

20. Mike Huckabee (11)

Presidential hopeful

It is widely assumed Huckabee will be among the early declarers for the 2012 Republican primary and if Sarah Palin joins the race they will battle for the evangelical, activist vote, which would test Huckabee’s gracious manners (except when he’s talking about Mitt Romney) and ready wit. Already preparing for the challenge, he told the New Yorker that the main difference between them was "she looks better in stilettos than I do, and she has better hair".

The former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister, and occasional rock musician, swept to a surprise victory in Iowa on the back of evangelical support and finished second to John McCain overall. Next time his fundraising operation should be stronger while he will have a ground operation established in Iowa and South Carolina. But many Republican insiders believe that 2008 was his political high water mark. His 2012 hopes were dealt a blow recently when it emerged that Maurice Clemmons, accused of murdering four police officers in Washington state, had been granted clemency by Huckabee in Arkansas in 2000.

Huckabee, who before 2008 was best known for losing lots of weight and advocating a healthy lifestyle, has kept his profile high after the primary, with a daily commentary on ABC Radio and the Huck Political Action Committee. Perhaps the biggest question mark over his participation is whether or not the former teenage local radio host finds his Saturday show on Fox News too comfortable a gig to leave.

Lists compiled by the Telegraph staff in Washington – Toby Harnden, Alex Spillius, Rachel Ray, Andrea Viola and Meghan Cassin.
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