Saturday, September 24, 2016

The Presidential Election - Clinton or Trump - The World Watches in Fascination


As we countdown to the day of reckoning when half of the voters in America will be squealing for joy while the other half prepare to move to Canada, or perhaps Newfoundland, where will you be?

Down to forty-five days and counting and by anyone's measure once you toss out the radical right and radical left predictions, the election is still too close to call.  No matter how hard the desperate liberal media try to stack the polls and purloin the Trump, it matters not.

You may have noticed how NBC and other leading liberal networks are using the 2012 election results for the demographic distribution of the 2016 polls.  The conservatives have their own distorted results to offset the liberals, proof intellectual constipation is rampant.

For the record, there is no possible way the 2016 carnage will resemble the 2012 results.  Just the obvious would tell you so since no matter how hard they try to make us believe it, Hillary Clinton is not and never will be Barack Obama and she really is white.  For that matter, there is no way an entire generation of millennial who backed Bernie Sanders will transfer their vote to the Queen of the Establishment.

Barack Obama was off the charts with his support from Blacks and youth in 2008 and 2012, as much as 25-30% higher than Hillary's support.  Hello political pundits, that means, overall, there may well be a twenty-five percent lower turnout of Blacks and youth for Hillary.

Trump, on the other hand, has a huge advantage in enthusiasm.  Where Clinton is a practicing member of the establishment since she married Bill in 1975 and his election as state attorney general of Arkansas in 1976, Trump has never been involved in holding political office.

That makes her a card-carrying establishment leader for forty-one years, longer than the oldest millennial alive.  It makes Trump about the second oldest revolutionary in our history next to the ageless Benjamin Franklin.

As for her agenda, Hillary offers the most aggressive progressive liberal platform since George McGovern in 1972 and he lost 49 out of 50 states.  In world politics, the pendulum is swinging conservative so she must also buck the trends.

This year The Federalist, a wholly independent division of FDRLST Media, reported the following.

"But any intelligent discussion of 2016 must begin with the fact that history is very strongly against the Democrats in 2016.  In the modern two-party era (beginning with the first Republican Party presidential campaign in 1856), there have been 16 elections following the re-election of an incumbent president; in 11 of those races, there was no incumbent on the ballot.  An analysis of those elections shows a startlingly uniform pattern over time: the incumbent party (i.e., the party that won the last election) consistently lost ground relative to the challenger party (the party out of power), especially when running without an incumbent on the ballot.  And in nearly every such election, that loss of popular support was evident in closely divided battleground states, rather than confined to uncompetitive states.  The trend has persisted in winning and losing elections, in elections with and without third-party challengers, in times of war and peace, booms and depressions.  It has become more, rather than less, pronounced in the years since World War II, and at all times has been more pronounced when the incumbent party is the Democrats."

Thus, Hillary is also battling history.

Trump, the political neophyte, has no history, no record of accomplishment, and no one really cares what he had to say back when he was a talk show host and not a political candidate.  To his supporters and right now he has the same level of support as Hillary, Trump is their champion.

He is the Chosen One to lead America out of the dark and out of the control of the dastardly establishment.  If it is determined if he is a billionaire, he will be the first to be president if elected.  If not he will rank among the richest ever.  Yet he is the voice of the silent majority, the Independent, the forgotten, the disappearing Middle Class, and the one trusted to bring about radical change to our system.

Hillary and her minions believe he is a Demon determined to undermine our way of life but a whole lot of voters believe he is the crusader to bring back the life our politicians sold out to the rich and powerful.

Has there ever been a more divisive election in our history, of course if you know history, which has seemed to escape the minds of most political reporters in America.  Reporters of today think the 1990's the most important decade the last century but our political history transcends not just decades, but centuries.

In 1788, George Washington became our first president in history.  That was 228 years ago not two decades ago.  This year marks the 58th quadrennial presidential election in America and we will be electing the 45th person to serve as president.  Of course, neither Blacks nor women could vote in George's election, very different from today.

Many times over the past two centuries the polarization was worse, the language was more vulgar, the animosity more intense, the attacks more personal, the deplorable nature more severe, the lies more extreme, yet somehow, our nation survived.

Therein lays the miracle of our nation and the wisdom of our Founding Fathers.  Our Constitution and Bill of Rights has endured the test of time, the treachery of politicians, the greed of capitalists, the distortion of the news media, and the suffocation of special interests.

This year the news media, politicians, political pundits, and even the historians seem to be suffering from collective brain-dead syndrome.  The partisanship, the intolerance of the opinion of others, and the downright bias of the media has fed an enormous appetite of polarizing mania.

At first, I thought it was the result of nearly eight years of the Obama Administration failure to deliver on many of the key promises of 2008 and 2012.  When Trump struck a responsive chord with far more of the public than the so-called experts expected, it was clear there was much more to his campaign.

The media, politicians, and political pundits first ridiculed, then gave extraordinary attention to the neophyte they knew never had a chance to be elected.  In time this free media coverage became obsessive and helped Trump drown out all the highly regarded competition.

When he stunned the experts and emerged as winner of the GOP primary campaign, they made light of the stupidity of the Republicans in nominating Trump.  However, as the Democrats finished their convention and as the Clinton campaign outspent Trump five to ten to one depending on television and the Internet, a strange result started to emerge.

Hillary could not put Trump away as expected.

Now here we are, just 45 days from the end, and nothing seems settled like expected.  The bombastic billionaire will not go away.  No matter what he says or does, no matter how juvenile or odd his perspective on the world, he is headed for a photo finish with Clinton.

No matter what happens on Election Day, over 50% of the voters will disagree with the choice.  That is because both candidates have the worst favorable rating in history, with each hovering around 60% unfavorable.

Forgotten in the race to capture the hearts of America were the Independents and once again due to the lack of due diligence by the news media, there could be a tsunami building across the land.  People have had it with both political parties.  Both parties are beholden to big money.  No matter who wins, the rich keep getting richer at the expense of the people.

Not even the election of Barack Obama in 2008, the first Black president in our history, could break the stranglehold of big money control of our government.  Members of the two parties might not have noticed, but the Independents did as well as seniors and the millennial youth.

When you consider a significant number of party members are fed up with the lack of progress, along with a lack of interest in the election by both Black and Hispanic voters, you have a groundswell of dissention.

Add to that the astonishing fact that for the first time in our nation's history there are more registered Independents than members of either political party and you have the ingredients of that elusive tsunami.

Eight years ago, in the last great recession brought about by the greed of big money, financial, banking, political, and government officials assured us all was well.  Financial rating services said things were fine and major financial institutions were too busy preparing for a financial meltdown to warn us of impending doom.

Nearly every expert from finance, banks, political polls, and rating agencies were wrong and the result was the near destruction of the American economy.  The lives, jobs, and retirement assets of the public were left shattered.

No matter what anyone says, we have not recovered from that unnecessary tragedy and not a single major executive of any of the financial institutions that raped and pillaged our economy is in jail.  The result is the slowest recovery in history with the vast economic benefits going to less than one percent of the rich.  That is the memory of the public.

Add to this condition a sinking feeling in the public regarding their safety from racial strife, an understandable fear of terrorist attacks, awareness that American foreign policy is a disaster, and a huge increase in the distrust of the establishment, and logic would dictate the results fail to conform to any past elections in the modern era.

My sense is the polls are 5-7% wrong, they under-represent the potential for new voters for Trump, and misrepresent the number and distribution of Independent votes.  If the polls remain within the margin of error like today through Election Day, Trump could most likely triumph.

The next election article will be life under a Clinton versus a Trump presidency.  Stay tuned.

Riots with most property damage in America                

1. LA Riots, 1992: $1.268 billion

2. The Los Angeles Watts Riots, 1965: $321 million

3. 12th Street Riot, Detroit 1967: $289 million

4. Miami Riots, 1980: $181 million

5. 1968 Holy Week Uprising—WashingtonD.C.: $158 million

6. New York City Blackout of 1977: $106 million

7. Newark Riots, 1967: $103 million

8. 1968 Holy Week Uprising, Baltimore: $92 million

9. 1968 Holy Week Uprising, Chicago: $86 million

10. 1968 Holy Week Uprising, New York City: $26 million


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