Sunday, May 01, 2016

The Kentucky Derby - What do the odds mean?


SNOW?
Ever since time began and men showed up they have been trying to figure out how much they win based on the odds.


I mean, if the odds were ten to one that Moses dropped the Ten Commandments, then how much did you win?


So here is exactly what you will win if you bet $2.00 on a horse to win the Kentucky Derby.





ODDS

PAYS


ODDS

PAYS


ODDS

PAYS

1-5

$2.40


8-5

$5.20


6-1

$14.00

2-5

$2.80


9-5

$5.60


7-1

$16.00

1-2

$3.00


2-1

$6.00


8-1

$18.00

3-5

$3.20


5-2

$7.00


9-1

$20.00

4-5

$3.60


3-1

$8.00


10-1

$22.00

1-1

$4.00


7-2

$9.00


15-1

$32.00

6-5

$4.40


4-1

$10.00


20-1

$42.00

7-5

$4.80


9-2

$11.00


30-1

$62.00

3-2

$5.00


5-1

$12.00


50-1

$102.00
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Kentucky Derby Betting Odds - The early betting pattern

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Kentucky Derby odds 2016: Nyquist favored, but betting value abounds for May 7 race

By OddsShark on Apr 29, 2016, 11:00a

Nyquist remains the betting favorite for the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby, but several other horses are also worth a look next week.

While the undefeated Nyquist remains the early betting favorite for the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com, there are 19 other contenders and plenty of betting value to be found as the Run for the Roses approaches.

We have seen betting favorites Orb, California Chrome and American Pharoah get the job done in the last three years, but I'll Have Another (2012) at 15-1 and Animal Kingdom (2011) at 20-1 are recent winners and let's not forget about Mine That Bird and Giacomo both paying over $100 to win in 2009 and 2005, respectively.

Florida Derby (G1) winner Nyquist is the current favorite at +300, but there are plenty of viable options other than backing the betting favorite at the 2016 Kentucky Derby.


Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Exaggerator (+800) and Fountain of Youth (G2) victor Mohaymen (+1000) continue to be the second and third choices on the early Kentucky Derby betting lines.

Once we get beyond the top three it is difficult to separate the next half dozen contenders, and there will be plenty of betting value available come the first Saturday of May. Several contenders coming off victories in key prep races are going to be sent off at generous prices.

Creator won the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his last start, a race American Pharoah used last year as a springboard to sweeping the Triple Crown. The Steve Asmussen trainee is currently at early Kentucky Derby betting odds of +2000.


Outwork won the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct in his last outing, just his fourth career start. Trained by Todd Pletcher, who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver, the colt is at early Kentucky Derby betting odds of +2000 as well.

Brody's Cause stamped his ticket to the Derby with his victory in the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland in his last outing, bouncing back from a disappointing effort as the betting favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby. 

He can be had at +1200 in early Kentucky Derby betting.

Lani will attempt to become the first Japanese runner to win America's most famous race. He earned his way into the field with his victory in the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai and his race odds stand at +3300 at Kentucky Derby betting sites.

Toss in Mo Tom (+1600) who has had terrible trips in his last two starts, Whitmore (+3300) who ran credible without winning in his three prep races at Oaklawn Park, and My Man Sam (+2500) who was a fast closing second in the Blue Grass in his stakes debut, and we have a wide open edition of the two most exciting minutes in sports this year.


Odds to win 2016 Kentucky Derby (5/7/15) per Sportsbook.ag
Nyquist 7/2
Exaggerator 4/1
Mohaymen 7/1
Mor Spirit 7/1
Destin 8/1
Gun Runner 10/1
Creator 12/1
Outwork 12/1
Suddenbreakingnews 14/1


Brodys Cause 15/1
Whitmore 18/1
Danzing Candy 20/1
My Man Sam 20/1
Mo Tom 22/1
Lani 28/1
Shagaf 33/1
Trojan Nation 40/1
Adventist 50/1
Cherry Wine 50/1
Fellowship 50/1
Majesto 50/1
Toms Ready 50/1


Dazzling Gem 55/1
Collected 60/1
Oscar Nominated 60/1
Laoban 70/1
Discreetness 75/1
Star Hill 85/1
Unbridaled Outlaw 85/1
Azar 100/1


Odds Subject to Change - Updated 4.29.16

Saturday, April 30, 2016

Kentucky Derby News - The Greatest Bluegrass Thoroughbred to Never Win the Kentucky Derby - Man o' War



If the millions and millions of fans around the world think they have it bad trying to pick the winner of the Derby and then sweating out the fastest two minutes in sports as the horses pound around the track tomorrow, just think what the horses went through to get on the track.

They are the result of generations of breeding and bloodlines.  Of the two greatest horses in thoroughbred racing history, Lexington, Kentucky bred Man o' War set the standard for all time to come.

The other greatest thoroughbred of all time was Secretariat (March 30, 1970 - October 4, 1989), an American Thoroughbred racehorse that in 1973 became the first U.S. Triple Crown winner in 25 years.  He set records in all three events in the series - the Kentucky Derby (1:59 2/5), the Preakness Stakes (1:53), and the Belmont Stakes (2:24) - records that still stand today, 41 years later.

He is considered to be one of the greatest Thoroughbreds of all time. In 1999, ESPN ranked Secretariat the 35th best athlete of the 20th century, the highest ranking racehorse on the list. He ranked second behind Man o' Was in The Blood-Horse's List of the Top 100 U.S. Racehorses of the 20th Century.

But a lot less is known about Man o' War, the greatest Kentucky horse to never run in the Kentucky Derby, so here is his story.


Man o' War came close to perfection
By Larry Schwartz
Special to ESPN

When thoroughbred racing needed a boost, Man o' War unleashed his blazing speed and came to the rescue.  Though he competed for only two years, he energized a reeling sport.
   
Let's look at the world of racing that Man o' War entered in 1919: Racing in New York had been eliminated in 1911 and 1912 because of anti-gambling legislation led by Gov. Charles Hughes. Other states had taken up Hughes' crusade. Many stables had folded and some of the bigger ones had moved to Europe.

While racing was legalized again in 1913, World War I soon dominated the public's attention. Attendance and pursues were at record lows when Man o' War made his debut on June 6, 1919.

By the time he retired 16 months later, he was a national hero, joining Babe Ruth as the first shining stars of the Roaring Twenties.  The charismatic horse's popularity had brought fans back to the race track.



Man o' War went to the post 21 times and won 20 races. He won one race by an incredible 100 lengths and triumphed in another carrying 138 pounds. He whipped a Triple Crown champion by seven lengths in a match race.

He brought international recognition to Kentucky breeders and made the United States the racing center of the world. When he retired, he held five American records at different distances and had earned more money than any thoroughbred.

In a mid-century Associated Press poll, he was overwhelmingly voted the greatest thoroughbred of the first half of the 20th century.

Not only did Man o' War perform like a superstar on the track, the chestnut-colored horse (though he was nicknamed "Big Red") looked like one. At 3, he was a strapping 16.2 hands (about 5-foot-6) and weighed about 1,125 pounds with a 72-inch girth. His appetite also was huge, as he ate 12 quarts of oats every day, or about three quarts more than the average racehorse. He ran in big bounds as well, with his stride measuring an incredible 25 to 28 feet.

Bred by August Belmont II, son of the founder of Belmont Park and for whom the Belmont Stakes was named, the future champion was foaled on March 29, 1917 at Nursery Stud near Lexington, Ky. His sire was Fair Play and his dam was Mahubah, the daughter of Rock Sand, the 1903 winner of Britain's version of the Triple Crown (the 2,000 Guineas, the Epsom Derby and the St. Leger). He was 15 generations removed from the Godolphin Arabia, one of three Arab and Barb stallions considered to be the founders of the thoroughbred line.

Originally, Belmont's wife named the horse My Man o' War, after her soldiering husband, who was stationed in France during World War I, but the "My" was later dropped.

Belmont's military involvement prompted him to sell his entire 1917 yearling crop. Sportsman Samuel Riddle, owner of the Glen Riddle Farm, was the beneficiary of this decision. Accepting the judgment of trainer Louis Feustel, Riddle purchased the rangy colt, who seemed too large for a yearling, for $5,000 at the Saratoga yearlings' sales. "As soon as I saw him, he simply bowled me over," Riddle said.

At the beginning, Man o' War's aversion to the bridle and saddle caused problems. "He's nice and he's smart, but don't ever try to force him or you'll come out second best every time," a stable boy said. "Ask him and he'll do what you want. Push him and it's all off."

Under Feustel's training, patience paid off, and the energy of Man o' War was harnessed. His debut, in a five-furlough maiden race against six other 2-year-olds at Belmont, was no contest. The fans reportedly screamed and pounded the rail as jockey Johnny Loftus tightened the reins at the stretch, slowing Man o' War to a virtual canter. But the horse still won by six lengths.



"He made half-a-dozen high-class youngsters look like $200 horses," wrote the turf editor of the New York Morning Telegraph.

Following his smashing debut, Man o' War won three stakes races, at three different New York tracks, in the next 17 days.

His winning streak was at six when Man o' War raced in the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 13. It is Man O' War's most remembered race -- because it is the only one he would lose.

Starting gates were not yet used, and horses were led up a tape barrier. A fill-in starter had difficulty getting the horses ready and they milled around. While Man o' War apparently was backing up, the tape was sprung. Man o' War "was almost left at the post," the Louisville Courier-Journal reported.

After a slow start, Man o' War was third as the field headed for home in the six-furlough race. Blocked by close quarters, he had to go to the outside in the final eighth. Though he gamely made up ground, he missed by a half-length of overtaking the winner, who at 115 pounds carried 15 fewer pounds than the 11-20 favorite. The winner was named, rather appropriately, Upset.

Big Red, who beat Upset in their six other meetings, finished the year with easy victories in the Hopeful and Futurity, giving him nine victories in 10 races.

In 1920, Man o' War won all 11 of his races, with Clarence Kummer aboard nine times. Big Red didn't race in the Kentucky Derby because Riddle believed that a soft-boned 3-year-old should not have to run 1¼ miles in early May. Instead, he set his sights on the Preakness (Man o' War held off an Upset charge to win) and Belmont (a 20-length victory in a two-horse field).

After winning the Travers against two horses at Saratoga, only one colt challenged Man o' War in his next race. Well, it wasn't exactly a challenge as Big Red, the 1-100 favorite, defeated Hoodwink by 100 lengths in the 1 5/8th-mile Lawrence Realization at BelmontPark.

He was 1-100 again in winning the Jockey Cup at Belmont Park, and then he was saddled with the excessively high weight of 138 pounds for the Potomac Handicap. After being a bit fractious at the post, he assumed command and won easily.

Man o' War's last race was against Sir Barton, who in 1919 had become the first to win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Like most match races, it was hardly competitive. At Kenilworth Park, in WindsorOntario, Man o' War won the $75,000 purse and $5,000 Gold Cup by defeating the older Canadian-owned horse by seven lengths.

When Riddle was informed that Man o' War would have to carry even more than 138 pounds as a 4-year-old, he retired his horse to stud. Man o' War held American records for the fastest mile, 1 1/8 miles, 1 3/8 miles, 1½ miles and 1 5/8 miles. His total earnings were $249,465, a record at the time.




Don't feel sorry for Man o' War because he stopped racing so young. He proved to be quite a stud. In 1926, his issue won $408,137, breaking a 60-year-old record.

Following his undefeated season of 11 straight wins, Man o' War traveled to LexingtonKentucky, to enter at stud at Elizabeth Daingerfield's Haylands and later moved to Riddle's Faraway Farm. Man o' War was a top sire who produced more than 64 stakes winners and various champions. Though many believe that Riddle did not breed the stallion to enough good mares after the first five seasons, he still sired many leading horses.

Man o' War sired American Flag and Crusader, who won successive Belmont Stakes in 1925 and 1926. Although there were no official champions in America at the time, both colts were generally considered the best three-year-old colts of their year, and Crusader was also largely accepted as the best racehorse of 1926.

Among Man o' War's other famous offspring were 1929 Kentucky Derby winner Clyde Van Dusen, Battleship (who won the 1938 English Grand National steeplechase), and War Admiral, the 1937 Triple Crown winner and the second official Horse of the Year. Another of his offspring, Hard Tack, sired Seabiscuit, who was Horse of the Year in 1938. Man o' War's most successful sons at stud were War Admiral and War Relic, and War Relic's branch of the male line survives today.

Tiznow, Honor and Glory, and Bertrando are also all sire-line descendants of Man o' War. According to Kent Hollingsworth, 37 per cent of all stakes winners in 1966 were descendants of Man o' War. Despite not covering more than 25 mares in any season, Man o' War sired 379 named foals during 22 seasons at stud. His daughters kept Man o' War listed in the 10 leading broodmare sires list for 22 years.

In 1921, a Texas oil millionaire, William Waggoner, offered $500,000 for Man o' War. Riddle turned him down, as he did when Waggoner increased his offer again, first to $1 million and then a blank check. "The colt is not for sale," he said.

Although Man o' War spent most of his life in Kentucky, he never raced there. He died there, though, at the age of 30 of a heart attack on Nov. 1, 1947 in Lexington.
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Kentucky Derby Five Favorites in Run for Roses 2016

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ABC News 

Derby 2016: 5 Horses to Watch in 142nd Kentucky Derby

By beth harris, ap racing writer
Apr 30, 2016, 1:02 PM ET

The starting gate will once again be full with 20 horses for the 142nd Kentucky Derby.
Even though the majority of horses have little chance of winning and over the half the field is typically eliminated in the opening quarter-mile, owners and trainers cannot resist the prestige of having a horse in America's greatest race.

Most of the 3-year-olds will be running 1¼ miles for the first time on May 7, leaving it up for grabs to see which handles the distance, track surface and traffic-choked conditions the best.

Trainer Doug O'Neill has the likely wagering favorite in undefeated Nyquist.

Three trainers are expected to have two horses each in the race. Steve Asmussen will saddle Gun Runner and Creator, Todd Pletcher has Wood Memorial winner Outwork and Tampa Bay Derby winner Destin, and Chad Brown has Shagaf and Blue Grass runner-up My Man Sam.

Here are five horses to watch:






EXAGGERATOR

A son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. He's trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, the Hall of Fame jockey who is Keith's younger brother. The colt has three wins in eight career starts and earnings of $1 million. He has lost to Nyquist three times, including last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Exaggerator is a versatile sort who can press the pace or stalk the leaders. He is coming off an impressive 6¼-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby on a sloppy track.




GUN RUNNER

The colt topped the Derby leaderboard with 151 points earned in prep races. He has four wins in five career starts, including the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star this winter. Trainer Steve Asmussen, recently elected to racing's Hall of Fame, is seeking his first Derby victory. He will also saddle Creator. Gun Runner has the second-highest earnings of $1.6 million among the horses expected to make the field.




MOHAYMEN

The colt had his five-race winning streak snapped in the Florida Derby, when he finished fourth behind Nyquist as the 4-5 favorite. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin tosses out the clunker, saying Mohaymen has had "only two bad minutes in his entire life." The colt is one of two (Shagaf is the other) in the race owned by Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the 70-year-old deputy ruler of Dubai. The Maktoum family is 0 for 8 at the Derby. Mohaymen's blood lines include Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew.




MOR SPIRIT

Any Derby horse trained by Bob Baffert is worth consideration. The Hall of Fame trainer has four Derby victories, including last year when American Pharoah began his journey to Triple Crown glory in this race. Another Hall of Famer, Gary Stevens, will ride the Pennsylvania-bred colt. Stevens has three Derby wins, the last coming in 1997 aboard Silver Charm, who was trained by Baffert. Mor Spirit has never been worse than second in seven career starts.




NYQUIST

The colt brings a 7-0 record into Churchill Downs, bettering the marks of Seattle Slew in 1977 and Smarty Jones in 2004 when they were 6-0 and won the race. He comes in off a five-week layoff, having last won the Florida Derby. The colt has won from just about everywhere: on the rail, from the far outside, leading all the way or coming from off the pace. Nyquist is a son of Uncle Mo, who also went undefeated in his 2-year-old season. Uncle Mo was the early favorite for the 2011 Kentucky Derby, but he was scratched the day before because of illness and was later diagnosed with a rare liver disease. The colt is named for Detroit Red Wings player Gustav Nyquist; owner Paul Reddam is a big fan of the hockey team. Reddam, trainer Doug O'Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez were the same team behind I'll Have Another, who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2012 before being scratched on the eve of the Belmont Stakes with a career-ending leg injury. Nyquist is the richest horse in the Derby field, having earned $3.2 million. He was purchased for $400,000.



The 142nd Kentucky Derby - the Greatest two minutes in all of sports

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The first Saturday of May can always help drive away the memory of nasty winter cold, politics, wars, terrorism and all the other distractions of life when the Kentucky Derby, the most famous horse race in the world, takes place.

It is the first step in the American Triple Crown for Thoroughbred horses and the beginning of reaching for that dream of all horse breeders and a place in history.


For 142 years horses have gone to the gate in the Kentucky Derby at the legendary Churchill Downs racetrack in Louisville, in hopes of winning the Triple Crown.

The Triple Crown has three races of over a mile against the best horses in the world during a five week period and is the true test of champions. In the 142 years since the Kentucky Derby began only 12 horses have won the coveted Triple Crown. When  American Pharaoh won last year it ended a 37 year drought since the last Triple Crown champion, Affirmed in 1978, the longest drought ever between Triple Crown champions.


Between the time Affirmed and American Pharoah won the triple crown, twelve horses have won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes but none won the Belmont Stakes to claim the Triple Crown. The closest was Real Quiet in 1998 who lost by a nose in the Belmont.  In fact, more people have walked on the moon than there have been horses winning the Triple Crown.


Now no horse will ever be the champion like Secretariat in 1973 who blazed to glory winning the three races by a record total of 36 lengths. It had been 25 years since the previous Triple Crown winner and to this day Secretariat holds the records in the Derby, Preakness and the Belmont.



Secretariat was not the only winner to make history.  Affirmed won all three of his legendary races with Alydar finishing second in each.  This rivalry ranks as the best triple crown competition in history.  
Alydar was the only horse to ever finish 2nd in all three races and in the Belmont when Affirmed was going for the Triple Crown they were nose to nose at the finish line with Affirmed winning in a photo finish by a nose. In all three races the two horses finished just two lengths apart.

The Kentucky Derby is the most amazing two minutes in sports and this year another strong field.  

2016
Top Twenty-six Kentucky Derby Horses Twenty will make the field

Gun Runner

 

Nyquist

#2
 

Exaggerator

#3
 

Outwork

#4
 

Brody's Cause

#5
 

Creator

#6
 

Lani

#7
 

Mor Spirit

#8
 

Mohaymen

#9
 

Danzing Candy

#10
 

Destin

#11
 

Suddenbreakingnews

#12
 

Oscar Nominated

#13
 

Shagaf

#14
 

Whitmore

#15
44 Total Points  

Tom's Ready

#16
 

My Man Sam

#17
 

Majesto

#18
 

Trojan Nation

#19
 

Mo Tom

#20
 

Fellowship

#21
 

Adventist

#22
 

Laoban

#23
 

Dazzling Gem

#24
 

Cherry Wine

#25
 

Discreetness

#26