Kentucky Derby Winner Prediction - Will CPT 2017 Winning Streak Reach Five in a Row?

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After Picking Four Straight Thoroughbred Stakes Winners This Year...

It is time for the 143rd Run for the Roses, the Kentucky Derby, Saturday, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.  Not only is this the greatest two minutes in sports for the year, but the Derby is the longest continuous held sporting event in the United States.

The Kentucky Derby is the hardest race to handicap because of the large field of 20 horses and this year is no exception as there is no clear favorite.  It is further complicated by the fact few of the top horses ran against each other in the various Derby preps.

This year might just be more special because the Coltons Point Times (CPT) has predicted the winners of four straight major thoroughbred stakes races this year from around the world.  We accurately picked winners of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational, the Dubai World Cup, the Santa Anita Derby, and the Bluegrass Stakes.

In the Pegasus it was Arrogate overwhelming the early favorite California Chrome with Shaman Ghost and Neolithic second and third.  The first three were picked by the CPT to be in the money.  In the Dubai Arrogate again won after a near disastrous break and stumble at the beginning.

On the West Coast Gormley was the pick for the Santa Anita, third in the odds for the race, who won at 6-1.  Then there was the Bluegrass Stakes in which the Coltons Point Times picked Irap to win, at a staggering 31-1 odds.

If you add in the prediction of a Trump victory in the Presidential race on October 18, 2016, also posted in the Huffington Post, on a day when Trump was 14% behind in the polls, this could be the sixth straight accurate prediction.

By the way, the Trump prediction was 22 days before the election and the CPT might be the only newspaper to predict Trump the winner.

Listen to the drum roll and here is the prediction and our effort to achieve a streak of picking five straight major thoroughbred stakes winners for the year.

The winner of the 143rd Kentucky Derby will be...Classic Empire

Second place will be...Always Dreaming   

Third place will be...Irap

Fourth Place...Gormley

As for the potential for a Triple Crown winner in 2017, our prediction is ...No winner

Good luck and keep watching for further predictions of major events by the CPT.

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Kentucky Derby 2017 post position and odds

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Kentucky Derby 2017

post position and odds

1. Lookin At Lee (20-1)

2. Thunder Snow (20-1)

3. Fast And Accurate (50-1)

4. Untrapped (30-1)

5. Always Dreaming (5-1)

6. State of Honor (30-1)

7. Girvin (15-1)

8. Hence (15-1)

9. Irap (20-1)

10. Gunnevera (15-1)

11. Battle Of Midway (30-1)

12. Sonneteer (50-1)

13. J Boys Echo (20-1)

14. Classic Empire (4-1)

15. McCraken (5-1)

16. Tapwrit (20-1)

17. Irish War Cry (6-1)

18. Gormley (15-1)

19. Practical Joke (20-1)

20. Patch (30-1)

Kentucky Derby draw set;

favorites get good gate positions

 Jay Busbee,The Turnstile 2 hours 16 minutes ago 

Royal Moe and Master Plan are also eligible to race if one of the horses above is unable to compete.

This year’s Derby field is wide open, in part because four-time Derby winner Bob Baffert has not entered a horse in this year’s race. Classic Empire leads betting odds at 4-1, with McCraken at 5-1 and Irish War Cry following at 6-1. No other horses have better than 10-1 odds.

The assumption that the inside stall is the best position, given that it’s the shortest distance around the track, isn’t actually the case. With 20 horses in the field, the inside horses are liable to get bounced and edged out as the pack jockeys for position heading into the first turn. Too far outside, and the horse has to cover too much ground in the first two turns to get on the inside track.

Some trainers prefer gate 14 (the final stall on the main gate) or 15 (the first stall on the auxiliary gate) because those two give a bit of extra room at the start. Last year’s winner Nyquist came from gate 13, while Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh began from gate 15.

Some other positioning-by-the-numbers tidbits, courtesy of America’s Best Racing:

• No horse has ever won from gate 17. Ever.

• No horse starting from gate 1 has even placed in the top three since 1988.

• The average size of the field since 2000 is 18.9 horses, with no race having fewer than 16 horses.

• The gates with the most victories all time are gates 5 and 10, with 9 Derby wins apiece.

Place your bets accordingly.

The Kentucky Derby, a 1 1/4-mile race for three-year-old horses, takes place this Saturday, May 6. Post time is at 6:34 p.m. ET, and NBC Sports’ coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET.
____ Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports and the author of EARNHARDT 

Nyquist Wins the 2016 Kentucky Derby - First Step in Triple Crown

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May 7, 20166:52 PM ET

by Colin Dwyer

Rob Carr/Getty

Nyquist, ridden by Mario Gutierrez, crosses the finish line during the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 7.

Nearly one year since American Pharoah made history, Nyquist has embarked on a star-making turn of his own at Churchill Downs. The thoroughbred has won the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

The colt beat out 19 other competitors over the course of a hectic mile and a quarter, crossing the finish line first.

Jockey Mario Gutierrez earned a patient win with Nyquist, giving the racehorse Danzing Candy plenty of leeway to lead the pack early. Gutierrez kept Nyquist close, though, never dropping much lower than third.

Nyquist pulled ahead in the final stretch and didn't ease up until he definitively captured the Run for the Roses.

The win didn't exactly come as a surprise. By mid-afternoon, the bay colt was pulling down 2-1 odds, cleanly earning honors as the heavy favorite. Nyquist — owned, trained and ridden by the same team that won the 2012 Kentucky Derby — approached this year's race with the confidence of having succeeded at Churchill Downs before.

"There's a quiet confidence in the group that's not flashy," owner Paul Reddam told Rick Howlett of member station WFPL before the race. "But — to speak Californian for a moment — there's a very good vibe in the barn."

Famous for his ice hockey fandom, the Ontario native named Nyquist after a player on his favorite team, forward Gustav Norquist of the Detroit Red Wings. And it's not even the first — or the second, or the third — Red Wings player who has served as namesake for one of Reddam's horses.

But, whatever the pedigree of his on-ice predecessor, Nyquist (the horse, to be clear) has been dominant on the track in his own right. Before the Kentucky Derby, the horse had gone a perfect 7 for 7 in his early races.

Now, make that 8 for 8.

Of course, the conclusion to this year's Derby Day, now in the books, also ushers us to the starting gate of another beloved, decades-old tradition: talk of a potential Triple Crown. The Kentucky Derby is just the first jewel in horse racing's highest prize; to win a Triple Crown, Nyquist must now go on to win the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes, too.

American Pharoah managed the feat last year — for the first time since 1978. Can Nyquist do the same?

Ladies and gentlemen, let the breathless debates begin.

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The Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown Heroes and Videos American Pharoah and Secretariat

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Secretariat and American Pharoah - American Legends

Secretariat Triple Crown

American Pharoah Triple Crown

Secretariat versus American Pharoah

The Immortal Secretariat

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American Pharoah wins Breeders' Cup Classic by 6½ lengths in last race

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ESPN News

Associated Press October 31, 2015

LEXINGTON, Ky. -- Hail and farewell, American Pharoah.

The Triple Crown champion won the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic by 6½ lengths Saturday, taking charge out of the gate in his final race before retirement.

The 3-year-old colt ran 1¼ miles in a track-record 2:00.07 as the sentimental 3-5 favorite among the crowd of 50,155 at Keeneland. Fans stood 20-deep all along the rail, cheering and snapping cellphone photos of the superstar horse and jockey Victor Espinoza.

Except American Pharoah didn't hear them. He wears ear plugs to muffle any sounds that might startle him.

"This was for Pharoah," trainer Bob Baffert said. "We wanted him to go out the champion he is."
American Pharoah took on seven rivals after Smooth Roller and champion mare Beholder dropped out. Beholder had the speed and the class to potentially make the race a contest, but a lung ailment sidelined her on Thursday.

It probably didn't matter how many faced American Pharoah on a cloudy, cool day in the cradle of American horse country.

He smashed the old track record of 2:05.36 by more than five seconds.

"The winner is one of the most amazing things I've seen," said Irishman Aidan O'Brien, who trained last-place Gleneagles.

It was a feel-good moment for a sport that has been battered and bruised -- all the troubles of declining attendance and drug controversies were wiped away in two magical minutes.

"It's a horse racing fairy tale and I just happen to be in it," Baffert said.

American Pharoah was moving easily under Espinoza, keeping Effinex a length back in second for the first half-mile. Effinex was never a threat, though, and American Pharoah extended his lead to 3½ lengths turning for home.

"I was trying to open it up as much as I can," Espinoza said. "I saw the wire maybe 20 yards [away], and for me it was not coming fast enough because I want to cross that wire and get it over with."

After easing across the finish line, Espinoza took the colt far up the first turn before slowly walking past the grandstand to the winner's circle, accompanied by raucous cheers all the way. The champion even had his own military escort walk him back to his barn.

The fans knew they had just witnessed history, the final chapter in a story that may never be repeated.

Victor Espinoza rode Triple Crown winner American Pharoah to a $5 million victory in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic, the final race of the horse's historic career. Pharoah topped the old track record of 2:05.36 by more than five seconds. Richard Mackson/USA TODAY Sports

American Pharoah put an exclamation point on a brilliant career in which he lost just twice -- in his debut last year at Del Mar and again in the Travers on Aug. 29.

In the Classic, he paid $3.40, $3 and $2.40. The win, place and show pool wagered on the race was $8,269,736.

Effinex, a 33-1 shot, returned $14.20 and $6.60. Honor Code was another 4½ lengths back in third and paid $3.40 to show.

Keen Ice, who vanquished him at Saratoga, finished fourth in the Classic. Tonalist, the 2014 Belmont winner, was fifth, followed by Hard Aces, Frosted and Ireland-bred Gleneagles.

Frosted unexpectedly pressed American Pharoah on the lead in the Travers, leaving him vulnerable to the rally by Keen Ice.

This time, no one could keep up with the champ.

"It's a lot of pressure to train a horse like this because I didn't want to let the horse down and I didn't want to let the fans down," Baffert said. "I'm just so proud of him; it's like watching my child out there."

American Pharoah won nine of his 11 career starts, including the first sweep of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont in 37 years this spring. He earned a total of $8,650,300 for Ahmed Zayat, the Egyptian-born owner who chose to keep his popular horse in training so fans could see him run.
"We wanted him to go out as a winner," Zayat said. "He is a winner."

American Pharoah had already ensured his place in history by ending the Triple Crown drought. He won the Derby by a length and then easily handled a sloppy track in the Preakness to win by seven lengths. In the Belmont, he led all the way en route to a dominating 5½-length victory.

After winning the Haskell Invitational in early August in Zayat's home state of New Jersey, American Pharoah took his show to upstate New York to run in the Travers. His loss by three-quarters of a length raised the question of whether he had peaked, and an emotional Zayat considered retiring him.

But the colt went back to his Southern California base with Baffert and regrouped. He quickly showed he was regaining his old form in training, in between entertaining visitors from children to Julia Roberts alike at his Santa Anita barn.

In a sport rife with jealousy, Baffert earned kudos from his rival trainers for how he handled the horse. Fellow Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas popped into the post-race news conference to congratulate Baffert.

"I knew he'd break their heart at the half-mile pole, and he did it," Lukas said. "You had him ready. On behalf of every trainer who gets up and tries to make a living, I want to congratulate you."

American Pharoah was a remarkable blend of exceptional talent and a winning personality. Unlike most high-strung, unpredictable thoroughbreds, he was friendly and patient with fans who wanted to pet and pose with him.

"The kindest, friendliest, happiest, easiest, most brilliant horse I've ever seen in my life," Zayat said. "He connected with people. He loves people. I knew he got it."

Next up for American Pharoah is a new career as a breeding stallion at a farm in Kentucky bluegrass country near Keeneland.

"It's going to be sad to see him go," Baffert said. "But I think he's done enough. He's proved enough."
Turning to his 10-year-old son Bode, the trainer said: "We're going to miss him, aren't we, buddy?"

Triple Crown's Lasting Legacy

American Pharoah followed in the steps of these four Triple Crown predecessors by winning the final event of his racing career in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic.

American Pharoah 2015

Affirmed 1978

Seattle Slew 1977

Secretariat 1973

Citation 1948
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