Jackson Bend Might Have Won

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For those of you watching the second leg of the triple crown you might not have noticed that a horse called Jackson Bend might have won the race except for the poor placemnent by the jockey of putting him on the rail behind the leaders for most of the race.



These photos show how Jackson Bend was pinned in by the far turn and forced to break stride and circle out around the leaders. Jackson Bend has the jockey with the purple cap. By the top of the final turn he was not in the picture. Thhen suddenly, afte circlinghorses, he is challenging the leaders down the stretch.



Jackson Bend continues to close as they near the finish line coming from outside and has now slipped between horses.



He closes on the second horse and leader in the final paces.



As they cross the finish line Jackson Bend #6 is still closing on the leader and is a head behind the second horse, nearly completing a remarkable recovery from the terrible placement going into the final turn.



In the end we will have no Triple Crown champion in 2010 making this the longest spell between Triple Crown champions in history. Next year will be 32 years with no Triple Crrown champion.

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Kentucky Derby 2010 - The Run for the Roses

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This 136th running of the most famous and exciting two minutes in sports is the ultimate test of champions before the largest worldwide audience to ever watch horse racing. It is the pride of Kentucky and the United States.

It's Derby week and Louisville has already come to life with parties, parties and more parties. So far the favorite and another top contender have already dropped out of Saturday's race making it a rather wide open affair.



Of course it is always wide open when 20 horses are pounding around the track making this the toughest test on thoroghbreds, especially 3 year olds, in horse racing. If you win this crown jewel of horse racing you assure your place in history and are in the forefront for a triple crown championship run requiring even more stamina during the next five weeks.

Tomorrow the final field will be set and the draw for positions will be held. For those of you interested in the race the following are the probable entries in the Derby with brief backgrounds. By Thursday I expect to have my picks and you should know I picked the winner 2 of the last 3 years.



American Lion: The first of the many speed horses entered in this year’s Derby, American Lion ran his first ever race on dirt in the Illinois Derby and it produced the best race of his career. He’s a long striding colt that may find it difficult to easily secure the lead on Saturday.

Awesome Act: Won the Gotham Stakes in New York this spring and then finished 3rd to the since scratched Eskendereya in his final prep race. Awesome Act is a patient horse that should be able to sit back and make a move late in the race. He’s got a great chance to win and could be available at odds of somewhere around 15/1 on Derby day, depending how things shake out.



Backtalk: A closer that currently might not make it into the Derby due to a lack of graded earnings. If he does draw in, he might be a short on stamina as he’s never won a race at a distance longer than a mile. Backtalk is sired by 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, Smarty Jones.

Conveyance: Another of the many speed horses in this year’s Derby, Conveyance has never won a race when he didn’t lead the entire way. He and Sidney’s Candy should be fighting for the lead going into the first turn.



Dean’s Kitten: This colt has only run on dirt once in his lifetime where he lost by 33 3/4 lengths – not really the type of result you want to see from a horse in the Kentucky Derby. Dean’s Kitten likes to do his running late in the race so he could benefit if there’s a fast pace and a bunch of tired horses sucking oxygen in the stretch.

Devil May Care: The lone filly in this year’s field, Devil May Care has run some very nice races against female horses in her career but will try the boys for the first time on Saturday. No filly has won the Kentucky Derby since 1988, and only three have won in the 135 year history of the race (Regret, Genuine Risk, and Winning Colors).



Discreetly Mine: Another speed horse that has never won a race where he didn’t have the lead every step of the way. It’s very tough to make a case for this horse when you factor in the presence of other dominant speed horses like Conveyance, Sidney’s Candy, and Line of David. It will be tough for him to grab the lead.

Dublin: Sired by 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner, Afleet Alex, this colt has tons of talent in his pedigree but not a whole lot of career wins to show for it. He’s come up just short in all his races this spring but Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas appears to have him sharp for the big one. Dublin is a dangerous horse because it’s easy to think he’s going to finally win until you watch him run 2nd or 3rd.



Endorsement: A lightly raced colt that blew away the competition in the Sunland Derby in late March. This colt appears to have a ton of talent and a very high ceiling, but he’s short on experience. The Derby is the most difficult race in America to win and it’s even more difficult for an inexperienced colt like Endorsement. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run huge or to see finish well back of the field.

Homeboykris: Hasn’t won a race since last October and finished second in a non-stakes race in Florida two months ago. This horse would produce payouts along the lines of Giacomo and Mine That Bird if he were to win the Derby.



Ice Box: If the pace is fast enough early, this hard-closing winner of the Florida Derby could find himself passing a lot of tired horses in the stretch. Ice Box is a very intriguing long shot possibility considering that the pace should be quite fast this year. Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito will be attempting to win his third Kentucky Derby, and his first since 1994.

Interactif: A turf horse that will be trying the dirt for the first time since last summer when he was as two-year-old. Interactif had an awful morning work on Monday and doesn’t appear to be training well heading into the biggest race of his life.



Jackson Bend: Another horse trained by Nick Zito, Jackson Bend is the direct beneficiary of the scratch of both Eskendereya and Rule, as he will now likely draw into the Derby field. He hasn’t won a race since last October, but he’s run credibly in all three of his starts this spring.

Line of David: Ran a huge race when he won the Arkansas Derby last time out but he’s struggled a little bit with his morning works over the last week. His sire, Lion Heart, ran second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.



Lookin At Lucky: If you were wondering who the favorite in this year’s Derby would be after Eskendereya had to withdraw due to an injury, look no further than Lookin At Lucky. Lucky was the champion two year old colt in America last year after winning three graded stakes races and finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Bob Baffert is still one of the most charismatic trainers in the game and he has this colt working like a freight train in preparation for Saturday’s race.

Make Music for Me: This colt currently doesn’t have enough graded earnings to get into the Derby but if some of these others don’t enter he could squeak into the field. He’ll be a huge long shot to win as he’s never even won a graded stakes race in his career.

Mission Impazible: This colt’s races don’t exactly "wow" you but he’s definitely a horse that keeps running and running through the stretch. He might not make a great bet to win but he could be a horse to play in a trifecta or superfecta wager.

Noble’s Promise: Always a bridesmaid and never a bride, this colt has finished right behind Lookin At Lucky three times in his career. He had some troubles in the Arkansas Derby in his last race but has come back to post a couple of great works at Churchill Downs over the past week. When he’s on his game, he can run with the favorite.



Paddy O’Prado: Another colt that has spent most of his career racing on grass prior to his attempt at the Derby. He hasn’t run on dirt since last July is a mystery as to what he’ll do on Saturday. Paddy is trained by local Louisville trainer Dale Romans.

Sidney’s Candy: The undisputed King of California after he swept all three races he ran at Santa Anita this spring, including the Santa Anita Derby in his final prep race. Look for him to be out front early as he’s won all three races this year by leading every step of the way. Sidney’s Candy will be ridden by young gun, Joe Talamo.

Stately Victor: If you’re looking for this year’s Mine That Bird, this would be your colt. On paper, this horse looks to be completely outclassed by this field ... but they don’t run the Derby on paper. Stately Victor wants to see a fast, fast pace so that he call roll by the field in the stretch when all the others are tired. His two previous attempts to run on dirt, however, were not very strong.

Super Saver: There is so much to like about this horse -- he’s won a stakes race at Churchill Downs already in his career, he’s got Calvin Borel in the saddle (last year’s winning jockey), and he’s seems to be improving with every race this spring. This colt might be the sleeper of the entire Derby and it’s very possible that he could be the one to beat.

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The Final Leg of The Triple Crown

It is the final leg of the Triple Crown and this year for the first time a jockey, not the horse may be the winner. Calvin Borel won the Kentucky Derby on Mine That Bird (pictured above) and the Preakness on Rachel Alexandra and returns to Mine That Bird for the Belmont, the favorite horse. Borel is trying to be the firrst jockey in history to win the Triple Crown on different horses.


Certain to challenge for the win is Charitable Man who did not run in either of the previous races but has won 3 of 4 races at Bemont Park.

The most current odds are as follows:

Mine That Bird 2/3

Dunkirk 9/2

Charitable Man 7/2

Chocolate Candy 13/1

Flying Private 16/1

Mr. Hot Stuff 20/1

Brave Victory 25/1

Miners Escape 30/1

Summer Bird 25/1

Luv Gov 40/1

The following stories appeared in the credited sources and pretty much sum up the difficulty of winning this race.

By Bobby Smith

New York Racing Examiner

The race known as the Belmont Stakes is one of the biggest jokes in American sports. Like the two-party system, labor unions, Major League Baseball and print newspapers, it outlived its usefulness a while ago, yet still exists out of habit, coming up once again this Saturday, June 6.

The gross national product of a small country was suctioned out of 100,000 pockets when Big Brown was eased in it last year – while shooting for a sweep of the Triple Crown, no less. Why was he eased? No real answer was ever given. The horse that won last year’s Belmont Stakes – Da’ Tara -- hasn’t won since, which isn’t a surprise.

The mile-and-a-half distance grows more uncommon with every passing year that Thoroughbreds are mated, so uncommon horses tend to win the Belmont Stakes. Winners of the Belmont Stakes tend to disappear from the scene within weeks or months of their big moment. The general rule of thumb is, the better the winner, the sooner it will exit from competition. Under those rules, people need better reasons for showing up here (they do, however, exist. Read on.)

The 1984 winner, Swale, died mysteriously behind his shedrow two weeks after winning the race. In 1988, Risen Star never raced again after winning the Belmont Stakes by 15 lengths. Ever hear of Go and Go, the 1990 winner? Or Editor’s Note, the 1996 winner? How about Commendable, from 2000? Point Given and Empire Maker were retired with injuries within months after winning the race in 2001 and 2003. Afleet Alex, the 2005 winner, never raced again. Where is Jazil, the 2006 winner? Retired, and 0-for-3 after winning the race. The filly Rags to Riches ran one more time, finishing second three months later, after winning the 2007 Belmont Stakes.

The sport of Thoroughbred racing has over-promoted the Tiple Crown and “star power horses” in its many futile attempts to cultivate new fans. Fans are not necessary, and the New York Racing Association provides excellent proof of that as they exist despite Belmont Park attendances of only 3,500 during the week, and 7,000 on weekends. More proof that fans are not necessary was given when NYRA raised the price of admission and parking for Belmont Stakes Day by 500% a few years ago.

When there is no pending Triple Crown sweep – like this year – the 50% reduction in Belmont Stakes Day attendance is more than offset by the price the smaller crowd is willing to pay for the right to attend. Exactly what is that crowd getting that they couldn’t get on a regular day at the races? Nothing, really, but the people aren’t necessarily aware of that.The best thing about the Belmont Stakes is that it is one of many fine manifestations of the old Chicago song, “Saturday in the Park.”

The race itself isn’t a must-see as much as being there – regardless of the historical significance of the race itself -- is a tradition for the people on hand who can look past the hype, enjoy the moment with friends and family, and understand that the currency the track pays out for winning a bet on any of the other 10 races on the card is the same as it would be for picking the winning horse, exacta or trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. The Belmont Stakes itself is merely the big distraction. It means more to the many shady participants than it ever will to the viewers. What it’s all about is “People dancing, people laughing. A man selling ice cream. Singing Italian songs …Can you dig it ? (yes, I can). And I’ve been waiting such a long time. For Saturday.”


The following analysis is from the BoDogLife web page and provides further details about this year's Belmont.


Belmont Stakes Betting Tips‏ and Odds: The Belmont Stakes will be run for the 141st time Saturday, June 6th at spacious Belmont Park and the bettors are looking for any and all clues in trying to find the winner of the mile and a half classic. Longshots have dominated this race for the past 10 years, with the average winner's odds Belmont Stakes Odds at 20 to 1.

So, it goes without saying, it pays not to dismiss any one in this last leg of the Triple Crown. A few other trends should be noted when handicapping the Belmont Stakes, such as post position, where the inside posts were golden years ago, they are now a disadvantage since the last 4 winners have started from posts 7 or higher, and only one of the last 8 winners has been inside of the 7 hole, and that was Birdstone, who broke from stall # 4.

As mentioned, in previous years the inside post were considered the best because in a cleanly run race, with relatively small fields, the shortest distance to the wire at the end of a mile and a half, is on the rail. Recently, however, the fields for the Belmont Stakes have had more starters, so the outside is convenient because there is no traffic, and horses turning for home in full flight don't get impeded.

Another clue to picking the Belmont Stakes winner is that horses that have run in both of the Triple Crown races prior to the Belmont Stakes, have not performed too well at all, and conversely, the ones who skipped them , have made it into the winners circle. Only Afleet Alex, who ran in the Derby and Preakness, has done it in the last 7 years.That being said, horses that only ran in one Triple Crown race, have done very well as evidenced by 12 winner in the last 15 years. Of the three Triple Crown races, it seems the Derby and Preakness take jockey experience as a prerequisite for success, while the Belmont Stakes seem to embrace first time jockeys because 3 of the last 4 Belmont Stakes winners were piloted by rookie jocks.

Finally, breeding is one of the most important factors to utilize, especially because the Belmont Stakes distance is such a test of stamina, and in genetics, stamina usually begets stamina. A few examples, four of the last eight Belmont Stakes winners were sired by classic winners, two more were sired by Breeders Cup Classic winners, and just going through the Belmont winners list, there is a preponderance of Belmont winners sired by Belmont winners or out of dams sired by Belmont winners.

BIG BROWN TRIPLE CROWN BID FAILS

Big Brown stunned the world with his loss in the Belmont race for the Triple Crown. His loss so overshadowed the victor of the race that no one remembers who won. The horse racing analysts are having a field day explaining what happened to the powerful Big Brown but we at the CPT know the truth.

This horse wins every time the jockey lets the horse run his race. He did it in the Kentucky Derby and again in the Preakness. But in the Belmont the jockey decided to let the horse know who was in charge, a fatal mistake. Big Brown was about to settle on the rail for a long haul, one in which he surely would have run down the leaders as they faded toward the end, when the jockey jerked his head toward the rail.

Still the horse recovered and was focused on riding the rail when the jockey looked at the horse next to him and made the fateful decision to change the race and take Big Brown off the rail to the outside.

With his ears laid back Big Brown was ready for the fight but the jockey was not content to let the powerful horse have his way and again jerked the reins, this time slowing the horse and sending him to the outside around two other horses just after the first turn. Big Brown actually was being asked to slow down early in the race and then circle outside behind the leader. A really strange strategy in such a long race. Suddenly the ears went straight up as he was slowed and then eased to the outside.

As they flew down the track Big Brown looked back at the jockey with the most disgusted look I have ever seen on a face. He continued with his head up and glancing back at the jockey as he moved off the rail around the other horses.

The last thing anyone should do is change a horse during the most important race of its life. Like triple-crown champion Secretariat, Big Brown was well aware of what it took to win and how to achieve it. Each race in the triple-crown Secretariat ran differently and Big Brown was doing the same, until there was human interference. Now the horse was third on the outside.

By the last turn of the longest race in the triple-crown the jockey had Big Brown way to the outside, meaning he had to run much farther than any other horse. Big Brown quit because he knew how to win and was not about to let the jockey tell him different. Will we ever learn to trust the instinct of animals?

This is what his trainer had to say about the race. Dutrow — who spoke publicly for the first time since the Belmont, telling The Daily Racing Form he feels “like a loser” — said this regarding Desormeaux’s ride. He told the racing publication that he did not know why Desormeaux had to ease the horse at the top of the stretch. Dutrow said he was sure that Big Brown had no idea “what the hell was going on going into the first turn,” because Desormeaux “was switching him all over” the track. “I don’t know what he was doing,” Dutrow said.

If the trainer was confused how in the world could the horse have known what to do? The only time Big Brown was running his race, when he was finally settled at the rail in photo 3 his ears were laid back and he was focused. By the time the mixed signals from the jockey had him going to the outside his ears are straight up, a sign of confusion and frustration. For comparison, the following is the stretch run at the Kentucky Derby when he was left alone. Note the ears are way back as the horse thunders to victory.

So Affirmed remains as the last triple-crown champion and it will now be at least 31 years since the last winner.