Kentucky Derby Winner Prediction - Will CPT 2017 Winning Streak Reach Five in a Row?

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After Picking Four Straight Thoroughbred Stakes Winners This Year...

It is time for the 143rd Run for the Roses, the Kentucky Derby, Saturday, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.  Not only is this the greatest two minutes in sports for the year, but the Derby is the longest continuous held sporting event in the United States.

The Kentucky Derby is the hardest race to handicap because of the large field of 20 horses and this year is no exception as there is no clear favorite.  It is further complicated by the fact few of the top horses ran against each other in the various Derby preps.

This year might just be more special because the Coltons Point Times (CPT) has predicted the winners of four straight major thoroughbred stakes races this year from around the world.  We accurately picked winners of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational, the Dubai World Cup, the Santa Anita Derby, and the Bluegrass Stakes.

In the Pegasus it was Arrogate overwhelming the early favorite California Chrome with Shaman Ghost and Neolithic second and third.  The first three were picked by the CPT to be in the money.  In the Dubai Arrogate again won after a near disastrous break and stumble at the beginning.

On the West Coast Gormley was the pick for the Santa Anita, third in the odds for the race, who won at 6-1.  Then there was the Bluegrass Stakes in which the Coltons Point Times picked Irap to win, at a staggering 31-1 odds.

If you add in the prediction of a Trump victory in the Presidential race on October 18, 2016, also posted in the Huffington Post, on a day when Trump was 14% behind in the polls, this could be the sixth straight accurate prediction.

By the way, the Trump prediction was 22 days before the election and the CPT might be the only newspaper to predict Trump the winner.

Listen to the drum roll and here is the prediction and our effort to achieve a streak of picking five straight major thoroughbred stakes winners for the year.

The winner of the 143rd Kentucky Derby will be...Classic Empire

Second place will be...Always Dreaming   

Third place will be...Irap

Fourth Place...Gormley

As for the potential for a Triple Crown winner in 2017, our prediction is ...No winner

Good luck and keep watching for further predictions of major events by the CPT.

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Kentucky Derby 2017 post position and odds

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Kentucky Derby 2017

post position and odds

1. Lookin At Lee (20-1)

2. Thunder Snow (20-1)

3. Fast And Accurate (50-1)

4. Untrapped (30-1)

5. Always Dreaming (5-1)

6. State of Honor (30-1)

7. Girvin (15-1)

8. Hence (15-1)

9. Irap (20-1)

10. Gunnevera (15-1)

11. Battle Of Midway (30-1)

12. Sonneteer (50-1)

13. J Boys Echo (20-1)

14. Classic Empire (4-1)

15. McCraken (5-1)

16. Tapwrit (20-1)

17. Irish War Cry (6-1)

18. Gormley (15-1)

19. Practical Joke (20-1)

20. Patch (30-1)

Kentucky Derby draw set;

favorites get good gate positions

 Jay Busbee,The Turnstile 2 hours 16 minutes ago 

Royal Moe and Master Plan are also eligible to race if one of the horses above is unable to compete.

This year’s Derby field is wide open, in part because four-time Derby winner Bob Baffert has not entered a horse in this year’s race. Classic Empire leads betting odds at 4-1, with McCraken at 5-1 and Irish War Cry following at 6-1. No other horses have better than 10-1 odds.

The assumption that the inside stall is the best position, given that it’s the shortest distance around the track, isn’t actually the case. With 20 horses in the field, the inside horses are liable to get bounced and edged out as the pack jockeys for position heading into the first turn. Too far outside, and the horse has to cover too much ground in the first two turns to get on the inside track.

Some trainers prefer gate 14 (the final stall on the main gate) or 15 (the first stall on the auxiliary gate) because those two give a bit of extra room at the start. Last year’s winner Nyquist came from gate 13, while Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh began from gate 15.

Some other positioning-by-the-numbers tidbits, courtesy of America’s Best Racing:

• No horse has ever won from gate 17. Ever.

• No horse starting from gate 1 has even placed in the top three since 1988.

• The average size of the field since 2000 is 18.9 horses, with no race having fewer than 16 horses.

• The gates with the most victories all time are gates 5 and 10, with 9 Derby wins apiece.

Place your bets accordingly.

The Kentucky Derby, a 1 1/4-mile race for three-year-old horses, takes place this Saturday, May 6. Post time is at 6:34 p.m. ET, and NBC Sports’ coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET.
____ Jay Busbee is a writer for Yahoo Sports and the author of EARNHARDT 

Nyquist Wins the 2016 Kentucky Derby - First Step in Triple Crown

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May 7, 20166:52 PM ET

by Colin Dwyer

Rob Carr/Getty

Nyquist, ridden by Mario Gutierrez, crosses the finish line during the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 7.

Nearly one year since American Pharoah made history, Nyquist has embarked on a star-making turn of his own at Churchill Downs. The thoroughbred has won the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

The colt beat out 19 other competitors over the course of a hectic mile and a quarter, crossing the finish line first.

Jockey Mario Gutierrez earned a patient win with Nyquist, giving the racehorse Danzing Candy plenty of leeway to lead the pack early. Gutierrez kept Nyquist close, though, never dropping much lower than third.

Nyquist pulled ahead in the final stretch and didn't ease up until he definitively captured the Run for the Roses.

The win didn't exactly come as a surprise. By mid-afternoon, the bay colt was pulling down 2-1 odds, cleanly earning honors as the heavy favorite. Nyquist — owned, trained and ridden by the same team that won the 2012 Kentucky Derby — approached this year's race with the confidence of having succeeded at Churchill Downs before.

"There's a quiet confidence in the group that's not flashy," owner Paul Reddam told Rick Howlett of member station WFPL before the race. "But — to speak Californian for a moment — there's a very good vibe in the barn."

Famous for his ice hockey fandom, the Ontario native named Nyquist after a player on his favorite team, forward Gustav Norquist of the Detroit Red Wings. And it's not even the first — or the second, or the third — Red Wings player who has served as namesake for one of Reddam's horses.

But, whatever the pedigree of his on-ice predecessor, Nyquist (the horse, to be clear) has been dominant on the track in his own right. Before the Kentucky Derby, the horse had gone a perfect 7 for 7 in his early races.

Now, make that 8 for 8.

Of course, the conclusion to this year's Derby Day, now in the books, also ushers us to the starting gate of another beloved, decades-old tradition: talk of a potential Triple Crown. The Kentucky Derby is just the first jewel in horse racing's highest prize; to win a Triple Crown, Nyquist must now go on to win the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes, too.

American Pharoah managed the feat last year — for the first time since 1978. Can Nyquist do the same?

Ladies and gentlemen, let the breathless debates begin.

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Kentucky Derby Betting Odds - The early betting pattern

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Kentucky Derby odds 2016: Nyquist favored, but betting value abounds for May 7 race

By OddsShark on Apr 29, 2016, 11:00a

Nyquist remains the betting favorite for the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby, but several other horses are also worth a look next week.

While the undefeated Nyquist remains the early betting favorite for the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com, there are 19 other contenders and plenty of betting value to be found as the Run for the Roses approaches.

We have seen betting favorites Orb, California Chrome and American Pharoah get the job done in the last three years, but I'll Have Another (2012) at 15-1 and Animal Kingdom (2011) at 20-1 are recent winners and let's not forget about Mine That Bird and Giacomo both paying over $100 to win in 2009 and 2005, respectively.

Florida Derby (G1) winner Nyquist is the current favorite at +300, but there are plenty of viable options other than backing the betting favorite at the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Exaggerator (+800) and Fountain of Youth (G2) victor Mohaymen (+1000) continue to be the second and third choices on the early Kentucky Derby betting lines.

Once we get beyond the top three it is difficult to separate the next half dozen contenders, and there will be plenty of betting value available come the first Saturday of May. Several contenders coming off victories in key prep races are going to be sent off at generous prices.

Creator won the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his last start, a race American Pharoah used last year as a springboard to sweeping the Triple Crown. The Steve Asmussen trainee is currently at early Kentucky Derby betting odds of +2000.

Outwork won the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct in his last outing, just his fourth career start. Trained by Todd Pletcher, who won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver, the colt is at early Kentucky Derby betting odds of +2000 as well.

Brody's Cause stamped his ticket to the Derby with his victory in the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland in his last outing, bouncing back from a disappointing effort as the betting favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby. 

He can be had at +1200 in early Kentucky Derby betting.

Lani will attempt to become the first Japanese runner to win America's most famous race. He earned his way into the field with his victory in the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai and his race odds stand at +3300 at Kentucky Derby betting sites.

Toss in Mo Tom (+1600) who has had terrible trips in his last two starts, Whitmore (+3300) who ran credible without winning in his three prep races at Oaklawn Park, and My Man Sam (+2500) who was a fast closing second in the Blue Grass in his stakes debut, and we have a wide open edition of the two most exciting minutes in sports this year.

Odds to win 2016 Kentucky Derby (5/7/15) per Sportsbook.ag
Nyquist 7/2
Exaggerator 4/1
Mohaymen 7/1
Mor Spirit 7/1
Destin 8/1
Gun Runner 10/1
Creator 12/1
Outwork 12/1
Suddenbreakingnews 14/1

Brodys Cause 15/1
Whitmore 18/1
Danzing Candy 20/1
My Man Sam 20/1
Mo Tom 22/1
Lani 28/1
Shagaf 33/1
Trojan Nation 40/1
Adventist 50/1
Cherry Wine 50/1
Fellowship 50/1
Majesto 50/1
Toms Ready 50/1

Dazzling Gem 55/1
Collected 60/1
Oscar Nominated 60/1
Laoban 70/1
Discreetness 75/1
Star Hill 85/1
Unbridaled Outlaw 85/1
Azar 100/1

Odds Subject to Change - Updated 4.29.16

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Kentucky Derby Five Favorites in Run for Roses 2016

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ABC News 

Derby 2016: 5 Horses to Watch in 142nd Kentucky Derby

By beth harris, ap racing writer

Apr 30, 2016, 1:02 PM ET

The starting gate will once again be full with 20 horses for the 142nd Kentucky Derby.

Even though the majority of horses have little chance of winning and over the half the field is typically eliminated in the opening quarter-mile, owners and trainers cannot resist the prestige of having a horse in America's greatest race.

Most of the 3-year-olds will be running 1¼ miles for the first time on May 7, leaving it up for grabs to see which handles the distance, track surface and traffic-choked conditions the best.

Trainer Doug O'Neill has the likely wagering favorite in undefeated Nyquist.

Three trainers are expected to have two horses each in the race. Steve Asmussen will saddle Gun Runner and Creator, Todd Pletcher has Wood Memorial winner Outwork and Tampa Bay Derby winner Destin, and Chad Brown has Shagaf and Blue Grass runner-up My Man Sam.

Here are five horses to watch:

EXAGGERATOR

A son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin. He's trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, the Hall of Fame jockey who is Keith's younger brother. The colt has three wins in eight career starts and earnings of $1 million. He has lost to Nyquist three times, including last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Exaggerator is a versatile sort who can press the pace or stalk the leaders. He is coming off an impressive 6¼-length victory in the Santa Anita Derby on a sloppy track.

GUN RUNNER

The colt topped the Derby leaderboard with 151 points earned in prep races. He has four wins in five career starts, including the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star this winter. Trainer Steve Asmussen, recently elected to racing's Hall of Fame, is seeking his first Derby victory. He will also saddle Creator. Gun Runner has the second-highest earnings of $1.6 million among the horses expected to make the field.

MOHAYMEN

The colt had his five-race winning streak snapped in the Florida Derby, when he finished fourth behind Nyquist as the 4-5 favorite. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin tosses out the clunker, saying Mohaymen has had "only two bad minutes in his entire life." The colt is one of two (Shagaf is the other) in the race owned by Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the 70-year-old deputy ruler of Dubai. The Maktoum family is 0 for 8 at the Derby. Mohaymen's blood lines include Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew.

MOR SPIRIT

Any Derby horse trained by Bob Baffert is worth consideration. The Hall of Fame trainer has four Derby victories, including last year when American Pharoah began his journey to Triple Crown glory in this race. Another Hall of Famer, Gary Stevens, will ride the Pennsylvania-bred colt. Stevens has three Derby wins, the last coming in 1997 aboard Silver Charm, who was trained by Baffert. Mor Spirit has never been worse than second in seven career starts.

NYQUIST

The colt brings a 7-0 record into Churchill Downs, bettering the marks of Seattle Slew in 1977 and Smarty Jones in 2004 when they were 6-0 and won the race. He comes in off a five-week layoff, having last won the Florida Derby. The colt has won from just about everywhere: on the rail, from the far outside, leading all the way or coming from off the pace. Nyquist is a son of Uncle Mo, who also went undefeated in his 2-year-old season. Uncle Mo was the early favorite for the 2011 Kentucky Derby, but he was scratched the day before because of illness and was later diagnosed with a rare liver disease. The colt is named for Detroit Red Wings player Gustav Nyquist; owner Paul Reddam is a big fan of the hockey team. Reddam, trainer Doug O'Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez were the same team behind I'll Have Another, who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2012 before being scratched on the eve of the Belmont Stakes with a career-ending leg injury. Nyquist is the richest horse in the Derby field, having earned $3.2 million. He was purchased for $400,000.